US growth revised up; Iran rules out oil production cuts – as it happened

America's economy is growing faster than expected, as Opec struggles to reach agreement on output curbs

• Latest: Iran says it won't cut oil output
• US GDP beats forecasts with 3.2% growth
• Tiffany's hurt by Trump protests
• Reuters: ECB would step in to help Italy
• Eurozone fears rising

5.22pm GMT

OK, time for a brisk recap.

1) America's economy is performing even better than expected; growth in the last quarter has been revised up to a 3.2% annual rate, from 2.9%. Consumer spending, investment and exports all helped to push GDP up.

Two days, thousands of headlines, one ransacked hotel lobby and ZERO net change in the oil price #OPEC pic.twitter.com/PWldWrGp0a

Italy is being asked whether to accept a broad package of measures aimed at making the country's gridlocked political system more efficient and its government more stable.

It has had more than 60 governments since the Second World War, so one might think that measures to improve stability would be strongly welcomed.

Watch what happened when we teamed up with baking queen @CJ_Brownie for #GivingTuesday! Contribute at https://t.co/mVHeSRqdvt pic.twitter.com/O29JKjjVgN

5.01pm GMT

Italy's stock market has defied worries about Sunday's referendum to close 2% higher.

The FTSE MIB index outperformed the rest of Europe, helped by that Reuters report that the ECB would step in to stabilise the markets next week, if needed.

Despite an initial consensus, a deal feels as far away as ever, with members continuing to conduct an intricate game of political poker, utilising the media to further their cause. It is becoming increasingly evident that some of the more prominent OPEC members care more about holding on to market share than helping raise the price of oil.

Hence despite agreeing to a production cut, we have seen the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran all continue to raise production.

4.42pm GMT

In another signal that America's economy is solid, sales of recreational vehicles are on track to hit their highest level in four decades.

Shipments of new RVs are expected to hit 419,500 this year, industry figures say, up 12% on last year. These whopping motorhomes and trailers are, apparently, popular with Millennials who want to get into the Great Outdoors in some comfort.

4.12pm GMT

Meanwhile in Greece... Athens has received an unexpected boost ahead of next week's meeting of eurozone finance ministers (the eurogroup).

4.04pm GMT

Back in Vienna, the UAE's oil minister has told energy reporters that Opec could still achieve a deal to cut output tomorrow.

Suhail Mohamed Faraj Al Mazrouei said it was premature to assume that the cartel would fail, despite the clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran behind the scenes.

I just told the #uae min that there is no reason to be optimistic... He laughed #OPEC #OOTT

Uae oil min says "don't judge the situation prematurely" #OPEC #OOTT and they haven't given up and working till the last min

#uae oil min says all options are on the table when asked if the group aims to freeze or cut #OPEC #oott

3.37pm GMT

After the excesses of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, British business has been showing its charitable side today.

For the third year running, voluntary bodies have been working with companies to encourage people to give money, or time, to good causes - from cancer charities to Syrian aid.

If you're in @Morrisons today, look out for cashiers like Barbra and ask how you can donate to @sue_ryder at the checkout pic.twitter.com/gtyrZrXl4e

Related: After Black Friday, #givingtuesday is a day for giving, not shopping

3.11pm GMT

An Opec source has now told Reuters that Iran want Saudi Arabia to cut its output to 9.5m barrels per day, from around 10.5m today.

That means Saudi would be taking the entire one million barrel per day cut which was provisionally agreed in September in Algeria.

3.05pm GMT

The Opec situation in a brisk nutshell:

#OOTT | #IRAN PROPOSES IN LETTER TO OPEC THAT SAUDI ARABIA CUT #OIL OUTPUT TO 9.5 MLN BPD - OPEC SOURCE - RTRS

Iran basically calling on Saudi Arabia to foot entire 1mm production cut. Saudis produced 10.532mmbpd in October

2.53pm GMT

These latest comments out of Vienna show that Iraq and Iran are at odds with Saudi Arabia over the proposed Opec output cut.

The hardline stance from Iran's Zangenah shows that Tehran is not willing to curb its own output. The situation is complicated; there's no real agreement on how much Iran is actually pumping today!

OPEC sources told Reuters a meeting of experts in Vienna on Monday failed to bridge differences between OPEC's de factol eader, Saudi Arabia, and the group's second- and third-largest producers over the mechanics of output cuts.

"We will leave the level of production (where) we decided in Algeria," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told reporters upon arrival in Vienna, effectively signalling he was not prepared to reduce output.

2.51pm GMT

Here's a video clip of the scrum (or possibly rolling maul) which greeted Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, as he arrived in Vienna.

Listen out for the breaking vase!

#Iran oil min in da house! #OPEC #oott pic.twitter.com/bUK4QqBQt2

2.18pm GMT

There is high drama in Vienna, where Iran's oil minister has declared that his country will NOT cut oil production.

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told a heaving throng of oil reporters that Iran would stick to the production levels set earlier this year, and would not accept any output cuts.

#Iran to #SaudiArabia: 'We won't cut oil production' -- more on @TheTerminal #OPEC #OOTT #oil pic.twitter.com/VtGlGU1fsv

When the Iranian oil minister arrives an even bigger vase breaks #OOTT pic.twitter.com/b3Lx5YiI25

Reports of Russia not attending the OPEC gathering has dented hopes of a meaningful deal while concerns of Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia failing to bridge their differences continues to encourage sellers to attack oil.

2.17pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve is now even more likely to hike interest rates next month, says Ian Kernohan, Economist at Royal London Asset Management:

"Robust US GDP growth in the third quarter, driven by household demand, was a marked improvement on the first half of the year.

"This should bolster the case for a rise in US interest rates in December. We think the Fed will wait until they see the scale and timing of any Trumpflation fiscal boost, before altering their language about gradual rate hikes."

2.05pm GMT

Today's growth figures are a sign that America has recovered from a slow start to 2016, says the FT's Adam Samson.

The data released on Tuesday confirm that the economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest rate in two years, representing a sharp pick-up from the 0.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent pace logged in the first and second quarters, respectively.

Consumption growth, a key element of US economic output, was revised higher to a 2.8 per cent pace, from the previous reading of 2.1 per cent.

Tuesday's report also showed that a key measure of U.S. corporate profits increased for the third consecutive quarter. Profits after tax, without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rose 3.5% from the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.694 trillion in the third quarter.

Compared with a year earlier, after-tax profits rose 5.2% last quarter, the strongest annual reading since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Strong Q3'16 US GDP could be dwarfed by Q4: Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees growth on pace at +3.6% in final quarter (for now). $FED $DXY pic.twitter.com/i4kPfAUh4T

1.43pm GMT

Breaking! America's economy grew even faster than expected in the last three months.

BREAKING: US economy looks to be in better shape. Q3 GDP comes in at 3.2% today (up from the first estimate of 2.9% growth) #economy

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in exports, an upturn in federal government spending, and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and residential fixed investment, that were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE (personal consumption), an acceleration in imports, and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

1.28pm GMT

Italian government bonds are strengthening, on the back of that report that the ECB would step in if the public reject Renzi's constitutional changes on Sunday.

The yield, or interest rate, on its 10-year debt has dropped to 1.97%, down from 2.06% earlier. That means investors see the bonds as less risky.

While there is the possibility of a slippery slope involving a snap election, a victory by the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement and then very real questions about Italy's ongoing membership in the Eurozone, it is more likely that an election is averted, with a good chance that Renzi will be reappointed as Prime Minister.

Even in the context of an election, it isn't clear that the Five Star Movement would be able to govern by itself. In the less likely scenario that the referendum passes, this would enable the Italian government to move more briskly on many much-needed structural economic reforms.

1.11pm GMT

Insiders at the European Central Bank have told Reuters that they'd step in and buy more Italian bonds, if Sunday's referendum leads to short-term market volatility.

The ECB could use "flexibility" in its existing quantitative easing scheme to mop up extra Italian debt and prevent prices slumping, as investors digest the result of the vote.

The ECB could use its 80-billion-euro ($84.8 billion) monthly bond-buying programme to counter any immediate, further spike in bond yields after the vote, smoothing market moves and supporting bonds, according to four euro zone central bank sources who asked not to be named.

The sources added the scheme was flexible enough to allow for a temporary increase in Italian purchases and that such a move would not necessarily need to be rubber-stamped by the ECB's Governing Council, which is due to meet on December 8 to decide on whether to keep buying bonds after March.

Exclusive: ECB ready to buy more Italian bonds if referendum rocks market - sources https://t.co/9ei3PUEu6q pic.twitter.com/Mdeabu4QXL

12.32pm GMT

Newsflash from America: Jewellery chain Tiffany & Co has admitted that its flagship store in New York has suffered from being sited next to Donald Trump's headquarters.

"It has been a complete nightmare. Pedestrian foot traffic is down tremendously. Everybody in the area is suffering."

Jeweler Tiffany posts first increase in sales in 8 quarters https://t.co/pVGDc6ExLT

12.01pm GMT

Austria could also contribute to eurozone worries this weekend, when voters head to the polls to choose a new president.

It's a straight fight between far-right candidate Nobert Hofer, of the Freedom Party, and Alexander Van der Bellen, a former leader of the Greens Party.

We are seeing a weight of pressure on the euro due to the Italian Referendum and the re-run of the Austrian presidential vote, both taking place this weekend. They could impact the euro significantly.

10.58am GMT

The oil price is sliding as Opec members struggle to reach an accord before Wednesday's make-or-break meeting.

Indonesia's energy minister has sparked the selloff, by telling reporters in Vienna that he's "not optimistic" that the cartel will agree a supply cuts deal tomorrow.

Indonesian Oil Minister moved brent after his comment in Vienna. Traders must be desperate #OOTT

Go home oil market, you're drunk. https://t.co/G88gunqret

"The stakes are extremely high, and everyone seems to be upping the ante. The thing with poker though is you can win even if you have a weak hand. But right now its hard to know who is bluffing and who is holding aces."

FROM VIENNA: In #OPEC's High-Stakes Poker Game, #Iran and #Iraq Call #SaudiArabia Bluff https://t.co/MG9vAU3nnS #OOTT #oil pic.twitter.com/x5nCwKpVhh

10.28am GMT

Britain's farming industry is facing a labour shortage as foreign fruit and veg pickers leave the UK following the EU referendum.

In a letter to Robert Goodwill, the immigration minister, dated November 10 and seen by the FT, Minette Batters, the NFU's deputy president, warned: "There is a clear emerging labour crisis in the industry" and "a very real risk that British fruit and vegetables will be left to rot unpicked in British fields in 2017".

Cut wages by a fifth, make people feel (at best) deeply unwelcome. What, exactly, did you think might happen? https://t.co/8FJBU3zxF7

I'm not remoaning but...

Christmas pudding is more expensive because of #Brexit. https://t.co/VrYW7RsaNj pic.twitter.com/MMVAgfoyqo

10.03am GMT

The euro has dipped back below a1.06 this morning, down 0.2%.

Caxton FX analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver blamed 'political risks':

The euro may have received some initial support as Fillon won France's Republican Party's presidential nomination, before coming under renewed pressure. Political risks remain a downwards pressure on the euro; attention at the moment has largely been on Italy's constitutional referendum on 4 December.

9.52am GMT

Boom! UK consumers are running up credit at the fastest rate in over a decade, before the credit crunch

And people are taking out more mortgages too, in another signal that Brexit uncertainty isn't hurting consumer confidence yet.

Consumer credit increased last month by 1.62bn, up from 1.48bn in September and taking the annual growth rate to 10.5%- the strongest since October 2005, Bank of England data showed on Tuesday.

Mortgage approvals for house purchases increased to 67,518 in October from 63,594 in September. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast 65,000 mortgage approvals were made in October.

Sign of future UK house price growth picking up again. Mortgage approvals for house purchase up to 67.5k in October. pic.twitter.com/AEm5ZiO5L2

9.34am GMT

Over in France, statistics body INSEE has confirmed that the economy grew by a lacklustre 0.2% in the third quarter of 2016.

That matches the provisional reading; we now also know that consumer spending was flat, investment crept up by 0.2%.

Healthy consumption and rising PMIs point to stronger French GDP growth in Q4 - the last print we'll get before the presidential elections.

"French consumers will boost GDP growth in Q4." @ClausVistesen on #France Consumer's Spending/Q3 #GDP, #PantheonMacro

9.27am GMT

After a slow start, Italy's banking shares have now rallied by 2% today.

That may mean investors are a little more hopeful that Italy can ride out this crisis.

Italy's troubled banking stocks are getting a welcome kick higher this morning https://t.co/bWK0ob9JSb pic.twitter.com/thOIj6wULp

Nobody really expects a yes vote, so it's a question about how close it will be and if those opinion polls from way back are right or wrong.

The big, big question is, whichever scenario comes though, can Italy address the question of the medium-sized banks which everyone knows they've been dragging their feet on for too long.

8.57am GMT

It's too early to assume that the Italian people will reject Renzi's attempts to reform the Senate, says Deutsche Bank.

They point out that many voters were undecided last week (before we entered a polling black0out period).

Why pricing in a "no" vote in Italy may be premature .. (from Deutsche Bank) pic.twitter.com/Gb8R7NXbYi

8.47am GMT

Now this is interesting.... Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera is reporting that Matteo Renzi is considering resigning as prime minister even if he wins on Sunday.

Under this strategy, Renzi would look to be re-appointed as prime minister with a new government, and broader support in the current parliament.

Italy's PM Matteo Renzi may resign even if he wins the referendum vote, @Corriere says https://t.co/l2PPnzrQzv pic.twitter.com/Xndtv65Y4A

8.37am GMT

Most European stock markets have fallen in early trading, extending yesterday's drops, as Italian referendum fears give traders an extra chill.

However, the Italian FTSE MIB has actually risen a little after yesterday's 2% slide (it may only be a cattus mortuus bounce, as the index has lost 28% in the last year).

Since we'll hear no more about the Italian referendum until the event itself, I'm not sure what is supposed to provide clear direction in Europe today.

It's more a case of angst, which probably will, at some point, turn into nervousness sufficient to take the Euro back down.

8.30am GMT

Writing in the Daily Telegraph today, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard warns that Italy could need a a40bn bailout to patch up its banks.

He says markets are bracing for Renzi to be defeated on Sunday, triggering months of political turmoil.

Sources in Rome say the Italian government may have to turn to the European Stability Mechanism for a bank rescue, a humiliating and painful course that must be approved by the German Bundestag. It would amount to a partial "Troika"administration under terms dictated by the EU.

One senior Italian banker said: "We think the banks will have to raise a40bn in fresh capital. This is going to need an ESM bail-out. The problems in the banks are becoming an excuse to put Italy under an EU programme.

Fears Italy may need a40bn bail-out for its crumbling banks as crucial referendum approaches this weekend #premiumhttps://t.co/SESPzBnH0L

8.20am GMT

Global investors are becoming more concerned that the eurozone could break up, as fears over Italy's future grow.

German research form Sentix reports that almost 20% of investors expect Italy to leave the eurozone in the next 12 months - the highest level since they started polling four years ago.

#Sentix investor survey put 19.3% chance of #Italy leaving #Eurozone in next year (highest in survey 4-year history) https://t.co/Pqh12jpPyE

Sentix #Italexit index jumps to life-time high ahead of Dec referendum. Almost 20% of investors expect #Italy to leave Euro within 12mths. https://t.co/oWsTXdJjPu

8.05am GMT

Global stock markets could be rocked next week if the Italian people reject Renzi's reform plan, says Kathleen Brooks of City Index.

She says:

A no vote on Sunday is a major event risk for the European financial sector. Up to 8 Italian banks could fail, as Matteo Renzi's bank bailout programme is likely to be scrapped if he resigns. It is not known what would replace it, or if the European authorities would step in to save the Italian financial system.

If not, then the creditworthiness of some of the larger more systemic banks, such as Deutsche Bank, could be at risk. DB has plenty of risks of its own, if the European authorities don't save Italy's banking sector, then how could it justify saving Germany's largest bank? Thus, we could see further declines in DB's stock price before the week is out.

This is likely to increase the tension and nervousness around this referendum, and could keep market volatility high for the rest of this week. The Vix, Wall Street's fear gauge, started to rise on Monday, and we could see further advances in volatility in the coming days, putting pressure on stocks and causing safe havens like the yen and US Treasuries to rally.

7.35am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Eurozone crisis jitters are returning to the City this morning, as investors worry that the smouldering problems in Italy's economy are about to burst into life.

"Italy's banks are at a critical stage in trying to rebuild their finances and, if Renzi loses the referendum and quits, then those efforts are going to be in deep trouble."

#OPEC Day 1 Recap: Committee doesn't reach an agreement on output cuts. Iran + Iraq still have reservations about cuts #OOTT

And the latest twist in Vienna (or rather Moscow): Kremlinology mixes with #OPEC-nology #OOTT #oil pic.twitter.com/ggNt1B0xVq

"So we will explore ways to improve and extend good governance across big business so that everybody plays by the same rules and we create an economy that works for everyone, not just the privileged few."

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