Why is UK inflation rising so quickly? Blame Brexit and the oil price

A 20% hike in petrol prices added to sterling's 15% fall means the cost of living is rising fast. Expect 2% by spring, 3% by next Christmas

Gyrations in the oil market meant it was a stone-cold certainty that inflation would be on the rise in late 2016. This time last year the price of crude was crashing, which put strong downward pressure on the cost of living. The annual inflation rate is the sum of price movements in the latest 12 months, so last year's price falls are gradually dropping out. As they do, inflation automatically goes up.

This trend is, however, is being amplified by two other factors. The first is that oil prices are not just holding steady: as a result of the deal between oil-producing countries to curb production they are going up. A year ago, it was possible to find unleaded petrol at around 1 a litre; this Christmas it will be 1.20 a litre.

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