Article 29X69 26% of voters want second referendum on final Brexit deal, poll suggests – as it happened

26% of voters want second referendum on final Brexit deal, poll suggests – as it happened

by
Andrew Sparrow
from on (#29X69)

Rolling coverage of the day's political developments as they happen

6.16pm GMT

5.47pm GMT

ICM has also been conducting polling for Represent Us, a group campaigning for parliament to have the final say on whether or not the UK leaves the EU once the final Brexit deal is known.

The Represent Us poll focused on a sample of 1,343 voters in Labour seats (not just Labour supporters - a representative sample of all voters in those seats) and it asked how people would vote if both Labour and the Lib Dems called for parliament to have the final say on Brexit, while the Tories and Ukip promised to implement it anyway. Another question then asked how people would vote if Labour said it would implement Brexit anyway, like the Tories and Ukip, and only the Lib Dems said they would give parliament the final say.

Last week Theresa May said parliament would have a vote on the EU exit terms - but the choice would be between accepting the terms and leaving on WTO terms. An ICM poll conducted this weekend across Labour constituencies shows that the party would be 22 seats better off in a 2017 election if it supported parliament also having the option of the UK remaining within the EU.

If Labour opposes the government and calls for parliament to have a choice between accepting the deal and remaining in the EU, it would end up with 162 seats (compared to the 175 currently projected). However, if it just supports the government it would end up with 140 seats (both scenarios assume the Lib Dems call for parliamentary choice). In the first scenario Labour's share of the vote falls 3% from the currently projected share of 44% in Labour constituencies to 41%; but if it supports the government its share falls 8% from 44% to 36%, with the Lib Dems gaining a similar amount.

5.15pm GMT

As I mentioned earlier (see 10.40am), today's Guardian/ICM polling included some questions on Brexit. Here are the top lines.

4.53pm GMT

Here is a snap summary of the main points from the UQ.

At the heart of this issue is a worrying lack of transparency and a prime minister who's chosen to cover up a serious incident, rather than coming clean with the British public. This House, and more importantly the British public, deserve better.

4.48pm GMT

This is from the Daily Mirror's Dan Bloom.

Whoops! John Bercow caught on hot mic re Trident: "Pick [sic] a fight with chairman of the select committee is a rather stupid thing to do"

4.39pm GMT

The UQ is over. But Kevan Jones is raising a point of order. American officials are briefing on this, he says, even though Michael Fallon will not comment. He says Fallon should appear before the Commons defence committee to answer questions on this.

John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, says Fallon will have heard this point.

4.36pm GMT

The SNP's Tommy Sheppard says Fallon has taken questions for an hour, and not one MP has asked for operational information.

Fallon says he has been asked for operational information.

4.35pm GMT

The SNP's Deidre Brock asks if Fallon can confirm that the missile went the wrong way. That is an extreme form of friendly fire, she says.

Fallon says he cannot comment on that.

4.34pm GMT

Philip Hollobone, a Conservative, asks Fallon to confirm that 160 Trident missile tests have taken place.

Fallon says he thinks that figure is broadly right.

4.33pm GMT

The SNP's Patrick Grady asks if any video footage was taken of this test.

Fallon says decisions are publicising these tests are taken in the light of national security considerations that apply at the time.

4.32pm GMT

Chris Bryant, the Labour MP, says American officials are briefing CNN, and British officials are briefing the Sunday Times and the Guardian.

Fallon says secrecy should be maintained. But he is not responsible for what the Americans do, he says.

4.29pm GMT

Here is Labour's Tom Blenkinsop on Michael Fallon's Commons performance.

It would appear that MPs would be better off asking the US sec of state for information on our Trident test, rather than Defence SofS Fallon

Michael Fallon long had reputation of being the minister sent out whenever No10 needs protecting. Suspect that's what is happening now.

4.26pm GMT

Tony Perkins, the Labour MP, says the fact that more is coming out in the US on this than from the government will undermine faith in the nuclear deterrent.

Fallon says he does not accept that.

4.25pm GMT

The SNP's Steven Paterson asks if other mistakes like this have occurred. Or should he watch a White House briefing for details?

Fallon says he is not giving away operational details.

4.24pm GMT

Labour's Kevin Brennan says Fallon's "don't tell 'em, Pike" approach is pointless because Congressmen and women in Washington will be told what happens.

Fallon says keeping these matters secret is in the national interest.

4.22pm GMT

The Labour peer Stewart Wood says Michael Fallon seems to be adopting the "alternative facts" approach championed by Donald Trump's aide Kellyanne Conway.

Michael Fallon's mastery of 'alternative facts' needs a bit of work. pic.twitter.com/O6aYNrslNG

4.19pm GMT

Michael Fabricant, a Conservative, says some people say MPs would have voted differently on Trident renewal last summer if they had known about this. But that is not the case, he says. Conservative MPs would have all voted as they did.

Fallon says he has tried hard not to confirm anything in his statement today.

4.16pm GMT

Bernard Jenkin, a Conservative, says some of those Labour MPs complaining about the damage to Trident's credibility do not even believe in the nuclear deterrent.

4.16pm GMT

Labour's David Winnick says, if the information about the failed test had been given at the time, there would have been far less publicity.

Fallon does not accept this. Previous governments have not given information about these tests, he says.

4.13pm GMT

Labour's Dennis Skinner asks how Trident can be independent when information is given to President Trump, a man who is as "thick as two short planks", but not to MPs.

Fallon says the nuclear deterrent is operationally independent.

4.11pm GMT

Labour's Mary Creagh says a US official has confirmed to CNN that the missile did auto self-destruct off the coast of Florida. (See 4pm.) Why are MPs the last to be told?

Fallon says he does not give operational details of tests.

4.10pm GMT

Carol Monaghan, the SNP MP, says her husband carried out a former nuclear missile test. Fallon said the crew and the submarine worked fine. But what about the missile?

Fallon says that Monaghan should not believe everything in the papers. He will not discuss operational detail, he says.

4.08pm GMT

Michael Gove, the Conservative former justice secretary, says the unilateralists opposite are like "eunuchs complaining about the cost of Viagra".

Fallon says he agrees.

4.05pm GMT

Crispin Blunt, the Conservative chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee (and the only Tory MP to vote against Trident renewal), asks what assessment has been made of the extra costs of Trident as the programme gets older.

Fallon says he will write to Blunt about this.

4.03pm GMT

The SNP's Douglas Chapman asks if Fallon will turn up to the defence committee tomorrow to discuss this.

Fallon says he is "pondering" where to accept the defence committee's invitation.

4.02pm GMT

Labour's Ann Clywd asks Fallon to confirm that every missile test costs 17m.

Fallon says he cannot confirm that.

4.01pm GMT

Here is the CNN story about the missile test failure.

4.00pm GMT

This is from CNN's Carol Jordan.

1/2 A #Trident test did go wrong off the coast of #Florida
but the missile self-destructed, a #US defense official with
has told #CNN.

2/2 The #US official told #CNN that the missile did not veer at the #US but diverted into ocean to self-destruct - an automatic prodcedure

3.59pm GMT

Vernon Coaker, the Labour former shadow defence secretary, says a leak of this kind undermines support for the nuclear deterrent.

Fallon says, whether Coaker likes it or not, he will not respond to speculation about this test.

3.57pm GMT

Sir Gerald Howarth, a Conservative former defence secretary, asks Fallon to confirm that there have been 160 successful firings of this missile.

Fallon says the "demonstration and shake down" tests are important. HMS Vengeance successfully concluded this test, he says.

3.56pm GMT

Labour's Mike Gapes says deterrence relies on uncertainty. So is Fallon trying to increase deterrence by increasing uncertainty today?

Fallon says Gapes is right about uncertainty being an important aspect of deterrence.

3.55pm GMT

Labour's John Spellar says Jacob Rees-Mogg wanted the Commons to sit in private to save ministers from embarrassment.

He says in Lord Hennessy's book, The Silent Deep, there is a full description of a previous test of this kind.

3.50pm GMT

The Labour MP John Woodcock asks if there will be a leak inquiry into the source of the Sunday Times story.

Fallon says he is not confirming what was in the weekend press, and he would caution MPs against believing everything in the weekend press.

3.48pm GMT

The Lib Dem MP Tom Brake says Britain's enemies would have been aware of the failure of this test. So MPs should have been told, he says.

Fallon says, under international treaty obligations, other countries have to be told about tests like this. They were told.

3.47pm GMT

Brendan O'Hara, the SNP's defence spokesman, whose constituency includes the Faslane nuclear submarine base, asks who decided not to tell parliament about this problem.

Fallon says O'Hara should not believe everything in the papers about this.

3.44pm GMT

Julian Lewis, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, asks what David Cameron was told about this.

And will Fallon come to the defence committee tomorrow to answer questions on this, in closed session if necessary.

3.43pm GMT

Nia Griffith, the shadow defence secretary, says it should not have taken a newspaper story and an urgent question to get Fallon to address this.

Labour is not asking for operational detail, she says.

3.40pm GMT

Fallon says HMS Vengeance passed its test, and has rejoined the operational cycle.

3.40pm GMT

Kevan Jones, the Labour former defence minister, asked the urgent question. He asks Fallon if it is true that the missile veered off course. And why was the problem not revealed? Was that David Cameron's decision?

Fallon is responding to Jones.

3.37pm GMT

Michael Fallon says that a "demonstration and shake down" test took place on a submarine last summer. Contrary to reports in the Sunday papers, the test was a success, he says.

He says he will not comment on the operational details.

3.35pm GMT

The Commons is about to hear the urgent question on Trident.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative MP, has just tried to get the Commons to sit in private, on the grounds that these are secret matter. There was a vote by acclamation, but Rees-Mogg's motion was defeated.

3.25pm GMT

Robert Hannigan, the head of GCHQ, has announced he is to step down, my colleague Ewen MacAskill reports.

Related: GCHQ chief Robert Hannigan quits

3.19pm GMT

Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, will be responding to an urgent question about the Trident missile test error at 3.30pm.

Here is a Guardian video explainer.

3.16pm GMT

Here is a short Copeland/Stoke byelections reading list.

Some of the early Labour canvass returns in the Cumbria seat have not been encouraging. Although Oldham had similar early problems, and were turned around, things may not be so smooth in Copeland. I'm told that when Corbyn's aide Katy Clark went canvassing on his 'secret' trip there last weekend, not a single supposedly solid 'Labour promise' voter told her they were definitely backing the party. Clark was so perplexed by the response she asked if the voter ID lists were wrong. She was told they were accurate.

Maybe that's why John McDonnell took the highly unusual step on Marr yesterday of offering what sounded like a softening-up exercise for possible defeat in both Copeland and Stoke: "Since Brexit you can't calculate by-election results on what's gone on in the past so what we're going to do is fight for every vote, and that's what we're going to do."

The history of these contests tells us a lot about how unlikely Labour losses are. The last time a governing party gained a seat was 1982 - at a time when Labour was even more split than it is now. And there have only been two such occasions in the last sixty years. Yes, Labour did lose a couple of contests (Bermondsey in 1983 and Greenwich in 1987) to the famous Liberal/ SDP byelection machine in the 1980s, but since the Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win either of these seats, a Richmond Park-style shock seems even less likely than Conservative or UKIP victories. If we look at the data on all such contests since 1983, as polling expert Matt Singh does in this post about Copeland, you'd expect Labour's majority to increase, not decrease, even adjusting for present polling. Only using data from the recent Sleaford by-election - for a seat won in 2015 by the Conservatives and not Labour - can you make Copeland look competitive. If history holds - and we accept that we live in uncertain electoral times - these seats should stay Labour.

2.50pm GMT

Here are some more pictures from the regional cabinet meeting in Daresbury, near Warrington.

2.26pm GMT

Michelle O'Neill is speaking at a news conference in Belfast now.

She says that for being a Sinn Fein activist is a fact of life.

2.13pm GMT

Northern Ireland's outgoing health minister, Michelle O'Neill, has been named the new leader of Sinn Fi(C)in in Northern Ireland, Henry McDonald reports.

Related: Sinn Fi(C)in names Michelle O'Neill as new leader in Northern Ireland

2.09pm GMT

This is a very important part of our plan for Britain. This is how we shape a stronger future for the UK and also ensure we are building a fairer Britain and a better Britain.

And I think it is absolutely right we are launching this strategy, here in the north west, because one of the themes that underpins what we are doing in the industrial strategy and underpins our plan for Britain, is ensuring we drive growth across the whole of the UK, that we ensure that we are building on the strengths of different parts of our economy and different parts of the UK, and that we see prosperity and opportunity spread across the country so everybody has those opportunities to get on in life.

1.51pm GMT

On the Daily Politics Julian Lewis said that, after his Today interview this morning, he got a call from Sir Craig Oliver, David Cameron's former communications chief, saying Lewis was wrong to blame Number 10 spin doctors for covering up the nuclear missile test failure. (See 9.08am.)

Blue on Blue: Sir Craig Oliver v Julian Lewis https://t.co/Eo1KgfBkxV pic.twitter.com/7y9uBq00OA

Dr Julian Lewis's full comments on @daily_politics about his angry phone call with Sir Craig Oliver about #Trident test failure. #bbcdp pic.twitter.com/rwwWcF2yrx

1.40pm GMT

My colleague Ewen MacAskill has written a good Q&A on the Trident story.

Related: How did the Trident test fail and what did Theresa May know?

1.17pm GMT

Here is a summary of the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

The defence secretary and the prime minister are routinely informed when one of these [Trident missile tests] are planned, and on the outcome of them. In this instance that was in June, so that was under the then prime minister. On taking office the current prime minister was briefed on a range of nuclear issues, including this.

There is an operational test designed to certify the submarine and the crew. These are known as "demonstration and shake down" operations. And we've been clear that the one in June, the submarine and crew were certified as a consequence of that.

We have been clear that the submarine and the crew were successfully tested and certified. That was the purpose of the operation. What is also clear is that the capability and effectiveness of the Trident missile is unquestionable.

The problem, according to defence sources, was not the missile itself or the launch system. The missile, they say, did not fail and veer off towards the US. The problem appears to have involved telemetry data, information gathered from various points and fed to the missile. There seem to have been a communication breakdown involving directional data. When this became obvious, the test was aborted.

We want to focus on how we achieve a two-state solution. Decisions about location of embassies are for each country to take. We have no plans to to move our embassy.

1.08pm GMT

Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, will be responding to the UQ on Trident, the BBC is reporting.

12.25pm GMT

There will be an urgent question on Trident at 3.30pm. A defence minister (perhaps Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, but alternatively one of his juniors) will have to respond.

UQ granted at 3.30 to @KevanJonesMP to ask Michael Fallon for a statement on the test firing of a Trident nuclear missile in June 2016

12.15pm GMT

Huffington Post's Paul Waugh says David Cameron's media team are denying being involved in the cover-up of the nuclear missile test failure. Julian Lewis blamed them in his Today interview this morning. (See 9.38am.)

Cameron spksmn tells me:"Entirely false to suggest David Cameron's media team covered up or tried to cover up the Trident missile test" 1/2

Cameron spokesman adds:"We are disappointed that [Tory MP] Julian Lewis would make these claims with no evidence." 2/2

Apols, those quotes not from Cameron spksmn but on behalf of his former No10 media team

12.08pm GMT

I'm just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. Most of the questions were about the Trident missile test incident and the key point to emerge was this:

10.57am GMT

Labour MPs Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed have formally stood down from the House of Commons, paving the way for by-elections in Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland on February 23, the Press Association reports.

Under arcane rules governing MPs' resignations, Hunt has been appointed steward of the Chiltern Hundreds and Reed steward of the Manor of Northstead - Crown appointments which bar their holders from sitting in the Commons.

10.40am GMT

We've got a new Guardian/ICM poll out today. And it's not very encouraging for Labour.

Ukip, the Lib Dems and the Greens are all up 1 point over the last fortnight. But Labour is down 2 points, taking the Tory lead up 2 points to 16 points.

10.14am GMT

On BBC Radio 4's Westminster House last night John Whittingdale, the Conservative former culture secretary, said Theresa May's refusal four times to tell Andrew Marr whether or not she knew about the Trident missile failure when she spoke in favour of renewing Trident in the Commons debate a few weeks later was a mistake. He said:

Given it was the splash story of the Sunday Times it was fairly predictable that Andrew [Marr] would want to ask her about it. I don't know if they had discussed what line she should take but I suspect her apparent inability to answer was not the best answer.

9.57am GMT

This is what Greg Clark, the business secretary, said on the Today programme this morning when asked if the government was willing to confirm that a Trident missile test went wrong. He said:

It's been the long-standing policy not to comment on tests of weapons systems and, if that's the approach that you take, I think we have to abide by that approach.

9.44am GMT

Brendan O'Hara, the SNP's defence spokesman at Westminster, told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that the government could not use "national security" as a reason not to comment on the Trident missile test failure. He said:

I think there's two issues here. I think there's an operational matter and I think there's a very serious political matter.

I think the political matter is there was an attempted cover-up by the government. Something went terribly wrong with this experiment, with this launch, and the government for its own political ends decided to cover it up.

9.38am GMT

Here are the main points from Julian Lewis's interview on the Today programme about the Trident missile test failure. Lewis is the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons defence committee.

This sort of event is one that you can't play both ways. These tests are routine, though infrequent, in this country, though they happen more regularly in America, and as is well known we share the missiles, so you must look at the tests in totality. And whenever they work, which is 99% of the time, films are released of them working. So whichever person decided that they wanted to draw a veil over one that did not work really should have been sacked. But as all that regime have been sacked now, I think hopefully a line can be drawn in the near future ...

I always think with something like this it is better to lay it on the line ... In the end you have always got to assume that something like this will come out.

9.19am GMT

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg points out an obvious flaw in the argument that Greg Clark, the business secretary, deployed on Today this morning when he claimed the government never commented on matters like the Trident missile test. (See 9.08am.)

Not sure govts suggestion that they never talk about nuke tests will wash given they send out press releases about successful ones .....

9.08am GMT

Nothing has been confirmed yet, but it is very likely that this afternoon we'll get a statement of some kind from a defence minster about the revelation that a Trident missile test went wrong last summer and that MPs were not told about this when they voted to renew Trident a few weeks later. The Sunday Times broke the story yesterday and on the Andrew Marr Show Theresa May refused four times to say whether she knew about the failure when she spoke in the Commons in favour of Trident renewal.

On the Today programme this morning Julian Lewis, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons defence committee, accused David Cameron of being to blame for the cover-up. Lewis said:

In fairness to the present prime minister one has to accept that she has been dealt a rotten hand because this matter, the decision to cover it up, if there was such a decision, as appears to be the case, was taken in the dying days of the Cameron administrations when spin doctors were the rule in Number 10 Downing Street.

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