Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-19 14:24 (#2SM0) I really, really wanted to get into solar for my home a year or two ago, until I discovered the hard facts.1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund.4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 16:06 (#2SM4) I'm a coder for SolarCity.1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.And there are rainy days. And rainy weeks. That's what the grid is for.Batteries will be cheaper when Elon finishes the GigaFactory - but that's no reason to wait for solar - just for the batteries.2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.Like a big battery.3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund... payback in 4-7, leaving you with more than 20 years of profit. Unless you plan on moving in the next 4-7, in which case things get a bit murky. I think the general population does not yet appropriately value panels on the roof of the house they're buying.4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.Next point...There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?So this is the bottom line: you would rather pay your electric company to continue business as usual instead of lowering your energy costs and (if you care) carbon footprint by getting panels installed for free on your roof.Seriously. WTF? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 18:52 (#2SM8) Interesting to have a solarcity guy with us. And Bryan has a working solar system at his place, if memory recalls. Looking forward to hearing more here. I'm absolutely getting ready to build a system when I get a chance. I'm at a higher latitude with a not-huge roof, but the hell with it, it's too interesting not to try, and I'm looking forward to those 16 years of lowered electrical bills. There are apparently some tax credits too.Glad those Californians are basking in solar, since they seem to be low on water this year. Can't have it all? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:35 (#2SMB) It's not California. It's Hawaii and Germany. Solar in the US is mostly embarrassingly low. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_GermanyOn midday of Saturday May 26, 2012, solar energy provided over 40% of total electricity consumption in Germany, and 20% for the 24h-day.I think they hit 50% this past summer, but I can't find a trivial reference.And I can't easily find any recent Hawaii records for solar production. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:41 (#2SMC) As usual, Germany doesn't screw around. Their rate of adoption of renewables should be the envy of the world, if anyone cared. And the reason no one cares is that the oil economy is still 'business as usual' and prices aren't so unreasonable that people are pinched.Let's see the MiddleEast go up in flames, the price of petrol skyrocket, and then let's see if anyone is interested in solar. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.
Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 16:06 (#2SM4) I'm a coder for SolarCity.1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.And there are rainy days. And rainy weeks. That's what the grid is for.Batteries will be cheaper when Elon finishes the GigaFactory - but that's no reason to wait for solar - just for the batteries.2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.Like a big battery.3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund... payback in 4-7, leaving you with more than 20 years of profit. Unless you plan on moving in the next 4-7, in which case things get a bit murky. I think the general population does not yet appropriately value panels on the roof of the house they're buying.4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.Next point...There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?So this is the bottom line: you would rather pay your electric company to continue business as usual instead of lowering your energy costs and (if you care) carbon footprint by getting panels installed for free on your roof.Seriously. WTF? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 18:52 (#2SM8) Interesting to have a solarcity guy with us. And Bryan has a working solar system at his place, if memory recalls. Looking forward to hearing more here. I'm absolutely getting ready to build a system when I get a chance. I'm at a higher latitude with a not-huge roof, but the hell with it, it's too interesting not to try, and I'm looking forward to those 16 years of lowered electrical bills. There are apparently some tax credits too.Glad those Californians are basking in solar, since they seem to be low on water this year. Can't have it all? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:35 (#2SMB) It's not California. It's Hawaii and Germany. Solar in the US is mostly embarrassingly low. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_GermanyOn midday of Saturday May 26, 2012, solar energy provided over 40% of total electricity consumption in Germany, and 20% for the 24h-day.I think they hit 50% this past summer, but I can't find a trivial reference.And I can't easily find any recent Hawaii records for solar production. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:41 (#2SMC) As usual, Germany doesn't screw around. Their rate of adoption of renewables should be the envy of the world, if anyone cared. And the reason no one cares is that the oil economy is still 'business as usual' and prices aren't so unreasonable that people are pinched.Let's see the MiddleEast go up in flames, the price of petrol skyrocket, and then let's see if anyone is interested in solar. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.
Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 18:52 (#2SM8) Interesting to have a solarcity guy with us. And Bryan has a working solar system at his place, if memory recalls. Looking forward to hearing more here. I'm absolutely getting ready to build a system when I get a chance. I'm at a higher latitude with a not-huge roof, but the hell with it, it's too interesting not to try, and I'm looking forward to those 16 years of lowered electrical bills. There are apparently some tax credits too.Glad those Californians are basking in solar, since they seem to be low on water this year. Can't have it all? Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:35 (#2SMB) It's not California. It's Hawaii and Germany. Solar in the US is mostly embarrassingly low. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_GermanyOn midday of Saturday May 26, 2012, solar energy provided over 40% of total electricity consumption in Germany, and 20% for the 24h-day.I think they hit 50% this past summer, but I can't find a trivial reference.And I can't easily find any recent Hawaii records for solar production. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:41 (#2SMC) As usual, Germany doesn't screw around. Their rate of adoption of renewables should be the envy of the world, if anyone cared. And the reason no one cares is that the oil economy is still 'business as usual' and prices aren't so unreasonable that people are pinched.Let's see the MiddleEast go up in flames, the price of petrol skyrocket, and then let's see if anyone is interested in solar. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.
Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative) by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:35 (#2SMB) It's not California. It's Hawaii and Germany. Solar in the US is mostly embarrassingly low. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_GermanyOn midday of Saturday May 26, 2012, solar energy provided over 40% of total electricity consumption in Germany, and 20% for the 24h-day.I think they hit 50% this past summer, but I can't find a trivial reference.And I can't easily find any recent Hawaii records for solar production. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:41 (#2SMC) As usual, Germany doesn't screw around. Their rate of adoption of renewables should be the envy of the world, if anyone cared. And the reason no one cares is that the oil economy is still 'business as usual' and prices aren't so unreasonable that people are pinched.Let's see the MiddleEast go up in flames, the price of petrol skyrocket, and then let's see if anyone is interested in solar. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.
Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 19:41 (#2SMC) As usual, Germany doesn't screw around. Their rate of adoption of renewables should be the envy of the world, if anyone cared. And the reason no one cares is that the oil economy is still 'business as usual' and prices aren't so unreasonable that people are pinched.Let's see the MiddleEast go up in flames, the price of petrol skyrocket, and then let's see if anyone is interested in solar. Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.
Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1) by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 23:16 (#2SMQ) The Middle East only has oil, which isn't used for electric generation almost anywhere, so solar panels aren't a direct replacement. Rising oil prices would spur adoption of PEVs, which might slightly increase electric prices, indirectly, but not too badly. A study of PEV owners shows they choose the option of peak/off-peak metering from the electric company, and then charge their EVs starting right at midnight, when rates are lowest. The higher electrical demand makes PV more attractive at homes with PEVs, too, but it's still a rather indirect relationship. Germany certainly has a lot of solar capacity installed, but I don't think ANYBODY wants to copy that model... They got it done by driving electricity prices through the roof, several times higher than the highest electric prices in the US, to pay for it.