Moody's issues warning over UK consumer credit as borrowing hits £200bn -as it happened
Rating agency fears that credit card and buy-to-let losses will rise, as UK economy weakens and consumer borrowing keeps climbing
Earlier:
6.23pm BST
On a relatively quiet day for company and economic news, the weakness of the dollar was a dominant theme once more. The latest going-on in the White House - including the change of chief of staff following the healthcare bill failure - have helped undermine the US currency, with investors questioning how much of his promised tax reforms and spending plans will actually see the light of day. Added to that was the nervousness surrounding the latest missile tests by North Korea.
So with the euro and pound benefitting from the greenback's weakness, European markets mainly ended the day lower. But the recent run of positive US company results, and hopes for the same from Apple on Tuesday, helped pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new peaks.
5.39pm BST
More on the strike at the Bank of England, and here's the Bank's response:
The Bank has been informed that industrial action called by Unite will commence at midnight tonight for three days. The Union balloted approximately 2% of the workforce. The Bank has plans in place so that all essential business will continue to operate as normal during this period. The Bank has been in talks with Unite up to and including today and remains ready to continue those talks at any time.
5.20pm BST
The weak dollar has also seen the euro gain ground against the US currency:
Euro trades above $1.18 for first time since January 2015 (July 31, 2017) pic.twitter.com/7dc80a3dYM
4.31pm BST
Sterling has hit a new 10 month high against the dollar, as the US currency continues to struggle with the uncertainties caused by the actions and comments from the president.
The pound is currently up 0.35% at $1.3178, having earlier hit $1.32 for the first time since 16 September. Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said:
Sterling jumped to fresh 10-month highs as the end of month 4pm fix sent cable higher. The pound exploded higher to $1.31999, having the briefest of flirts with the $1.32 handle before easing back. The move came as the dollar heads for its worst month since January. Cable is now trading at its highest since mid-September 2016 on this sustained bout of dollar weakness. Clearly it's all to do with Donald Trump saying it was too strong and the market having confidence in him"more likely it is the exact opposite - concerns about the chaos in Washington and a complete lack of faith in the administration delivering any kind of meaningful economic or fiscal reforms.
4.19pm BST
After its earlier gains on Venezuela's problems, the oil price is now on the slide.
Opec crude output rose by 90,000 barrels a day this month to a high for the year, according to Reuters, as supplies from Libya continued to recover.
4.03pm BST
Back with the UK consumer credit figures, and TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady has called for the government to take action:
Wages are still lower than before financial crisis, so it's no wonder that families are being forced deeper and deeper into debt.
If working people don't see extra cash in their pocket, borrowing will continue to spiral. Setting aside mortgages, household debt is likely to hit an all-time high this year.
The Bank of England's actions to curtail the growth of unsecured loans has had some impact, but more action is needed. While consumer credit accounts for a fraction of household debt, people are much more likely to default on unsecured loans. A lot of this has to do with understanding the area - there is a lack of financial education on the national curriculum, which means young people often come out of education naive to the negative consequences of unsecured loans and personal debt. Companies also have a large part to play in the financial wellbeing of their employees - otherwise, they too will feel the negative impact that financial stress can have on employee performance.
3.53pm BST
The Press Association is reporting some bad news for Bank of England governor Mark Carney ahead of this week's monetary policy meeting:
#Breaking Three-day strike by Bank of England workers to go ahead from Tuesday after talks end without agreement, Unite union says
3.52pm BST
US markets continue to be buoyant, despite a relatively quiet day in terms of economic and corporate news. But there is a lot coming up this week for investors to get their teeth into, which could well provide some volatility. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
There wasn't all that much to drive the index higher this Monday, with investors perhaps enjoying the calm before the storm of data and earnings brought by the first few days of August.
Tuesday's Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs are joined by Fed-favourite inflation gauge the core PCE price index and, most crucially, Apple's latest earnings update. Wednesday then has the ADP employment change reading, before Thursday's double dose of services PMIs and, finally, Friday's non-farm jobs report. In other words, plenty to challenge the Dow's recent rise.
3.41pm BST
The Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index has climbed from 15 in June to 16.8 in July, much better than the expected fall to 13.
The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 11 points to 22.8, indicating output grew at a faster pace than in June, said the Dallas Fed.
3.09pm BST
Next on the agenda are the latest US housing figures, which have come in better than expected.
Pending home sales bounced back in June after three months of decline. The National Association of Realtors said that its index of contracts to buy previously owned homes jumped1.5% to a reading of 110.2. This was higher than the 0.7% rise that analysts had been forecasting. But the market remains limited by the number of houses available to buy.
The first half of 2017 ended with a nearly identical number of contract signings as one year ago, even as the economy added 2.2 million net new jobs.
Market conditions in many areas continue to be fast paced, with few properties to choose from, which is forcing buyers to act almost immediately on an available home that fits their criteria.
2.55pm BST
The fall in the Chicago PMI follows five straight months of rises, and is the lowest level for three months. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators which helps compile the report, said:
MNI's July Chicago Business Barometer should be viewed in the context of the underlying, upward trend in business sentiment witnessed since early 2016. Key indicators, despite reversing their June reading, remain above their respective averages set over the last twelve months, and point towards robust confidence among U.S firms.
2.48pm BST
Still with the US and there is a smidgen of data due.
First comes the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which has come in lower than expected, down from 65.7 in June to 58.9 in July.
USA Chicago PMI announcement - Actual: 58.9, Expected: 60.0 pic.twitter.com/gpa4ER5TGy
2.35pm BST
Optimism about US company earnings has helped push Wall Street higher once more.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit a new intraday peak of 21,885, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are both on the rise in early trading. So far around 73% of major companies reporting results have beaten expectations, and Apple is the next big name to come under the spotlight, with its results due after the market closes on Tuesday.
2.02pm BST
Thurday sees the Bank of England's latest interest rate and monetary policy decisions, and ING Bank has been looking at the possibilities. And they have felt moved to drag in Game of Thrones for some reason:
1.05pm BST
In another important development, UK consumer borrowing is back above 200bn for the first time since the financial crash.
That's according to the latest Bank of England figures, released this morning.
"This will clearly do nothing to allay policymakers' fears that unsecured credit is growing too quickly.
But this at least suggests that households remain confident enough in their financial position to increase borrowing to help smooth consumption, as their real incomes are temporarily squeezed by higher inflation."
12.59pm BST
Rating agency Moody's has sounded the alarm over Britain's consumer credit market.
"Household debt is high and still growing, leaving consumers vulnerable to an economic downturn, while higher inflation, weaker wage growth and levels of indebtedness leaves those in lower-income brackets the most exposed."
"An additional challenge is that households' capacity to draw on savings to maintain consumption and/or service their consumer debts has significantly diminished."
Related: FCA to crack down on bank overdraft fees and car loans
12.25pm BST
Newsflash: Officials from the Bank of England and the Unite union have sat down at conciliation firm ACAS.
It's a final attempt to stop a three-day walkout at the Bank, starting tomorrow, over a 1% pay offer to Unite staff.
Last-ditch talks aimed at averting the first strike at the Bank of England in more than 50 years have started @acasorguk @unitetheunion
12.04pm BST
The threat of US sanctions on Venezuela has alarmed investors, sending them racing to ditch bonds issued by Caracas.
The price of long-term Venezuelan dollar bonds fell almost one cent, according to Reuters data.
Venezuela - EU has 'grave doubts election result can be recognised', says held in 'doubtful, often violent circumstances'
11.30am BST
Marc Bri1/4tsch, chief economist at Swiss Life, says the drop in eurozone unemployment shows that Europe's economy is strengthening:
#Eurozone recovery reaches labour market. #Unemployment rate falls to lowest sine financial crisis #Economy #Euroland https://t.co/DJjSeLYq9Z
#EUR starts week on front foot on raft of strong data, incl. unexpected fall in Eurozone unemployment, better than forecast #inflation ^KO
Unemployment at 9.1% is still extremely high and when you break that down by country, it becomes much higher again in some places. Core inflation is also only at 1.3% which is still well below the ECB's target and with the currency appreciating strongly this year, downward pressures here will continue to build.
The central bank should therefore tread very carefully when it comes to removing stimulus, as I expect it will.
10.40am BST
In another encouraging sign, youth unemployment across the eurozone has fallen by 400,000 over the last year.
There are now 2.588 million young people out of work in the euro area, or 18.7% of the youth population, down from 21% in June 2016.
10.11am BST
Boom! Unemployment across the eurozone has fallen to a new eight-year low.
The euro area jobless rate has dropped to 9.1% in June, down from 9.2% in May. This level was last seen in February 2009, after the financial crisis drove Europe into recession.
Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in June 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (2,9%), Germany (3.8%) and Malta (4.1%).
The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (21.7% in April 2017) and Spain (17.1%).
9.50am BST
Newsflash: Back in the UK, the number of mortgages being approved has dipped to a nine-month low.
A total of 64,684 new home loans were agreed in June, new figures from the Bank of England show, down from 65,109 in May. That's the lowest since September 2016.
UK mortgage approvals in June continue to point to fairly flat rather than falling house prices in the next 6 months. pic.twitter.com/HMvWQ5SvBa
UK consumer credit rises again, to 19.7% of household income in Q2. Most of the push has come from personal loans & overdrafts. pic.twitter.com/5C8YqxihDD
9.29am BST
As this chart shows, Venezuela is the third-largest exporter of oil into the US market:
The U.S. is weighing new sanctions against Venezuela by targeting its vital oil industry https://t.co/cHC3S4K6EF via @WSJ pic.twitter.com/1BZzXP4hQK
9.28am BST
Venezuela's public finances have been badly hurt by the fall in the oil price a couple of years ago.
That loss of revenue has fuelled the country's political and economic crisis, as RBC Capital Markets explain:
Many petro states have seen their finances severely strained by the oil price slump. However, no country has experienced as fast and furious fall as Venezuela has, and it now appears poised to earn the dubious distinction of being the first to fully fail. The statistics are staggering.
By the end of the 2017, the Venezuelan economy will likely have shrunk by 30% in three years. The IMF forecasts that inflation will average 720% this year and top 2,000% in 2018. Half of the population is living in extreme poverty and health officials are even starting to warn of famine if current trends continue, according to the International Crisis Group. Three months of daily demonstrations and strikes have left more than a hundred dead and thousands injured. Thousands more are languishing in jail.
9.10am BST
Venezuela's new assembly will give President Nicolas Maduro and his supporters "near-total" control of the levers of power, say Associated Press.
AP also report that opposition parties don't accept the government's claim that over 40% of the public voted:
Council president Tibisay Lucena announced just before midnight that turnout in Sunday's vote was 41.53 percent, or 8,089,320 people.
The count was met with mockery and anger from members of the opposition, who said they believed between 2 million and 3 million people voted. One well-respected independent analysis said 3.6 million appeared to have voted.
9.00am BST
UK foreign office minister Sir Alan Duncan has tweeted that he's "appalled" by the events in Venezuela:
Appalled by sham-democratic Constituent Assembly in #Venezuela, and yet more tragic deaths. Urgent negotiation needed to tackle crisis.
8.44am BST
My colleague Sibylla Brodzinsky has written about the deadly clashes on the streets of Venezuela during Sunday's voting.
Many voters decided against taking part in an election the opposition said would turn the country into a full-fledged dictatorship.
As many as 14 people died in the protests, according to opposition leader Henrique Capriles, and the prosecutor's office confirmed at least six people were killed by gunfire, including one national guardsman. Seven policemen were wounded in an explosion in the opposition stronghold neighbourhood of Altamira.
Related: Venezuela heading for dictatorship after 'sham' election, warns US amid clashes
8.41am BST
This chart shows how the Venezuela crisis has driven oil to a two-month high:
8.24am BST
The oil price is rallying this morning, following reports that the US government could hit Venezuela with sanctions.
Brent crude has jumped to $52.85 per barrel, its highest level since late May, and US crude is back over the $50/barrel mark.
Maduro's sham election is another step toward dictatorship. We won't accept an illegit govt. The Venezuelan ppl & democracy will prevail.
"We will continue to take strong and swift actions against the architects of authoritarianism in Venezuela, including those who participate in the National Constituent Assembly as a result of today's flawed election,"
"We encourage governments in the hemisphere and around the world to take strong action to hold accountable those who undermine democracy, deny human rights,bear responsibility for violence and repression, or engage in corrupt practices.
The measures, which could be announced as early as Monday, are not expected to include a ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States -- one of the harshest options -- but could block sale of lighter U.S. crude that Venezuela mixes with its heavy crude and then exports, the officials told Reuters.
7.51am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Today we get a new healthcheck on Britain's economy, with new figures showing how much new credit was lapped up by consumer last month, and how many people took out mortgages.
Mortgage approvals for June are set to remain steady at 65k, while net lending is expected to slow down a touch from the numbers seen in May, as declining consumer confidence and rising inflation squeezes wages, not to mention the uncertainty created by the June election result.
The pace of improvement is still gradual, due in particular to the continued sluggish performance of the French and Italian labour markets, meaning that the considerable degree of labour market slack that exists in the euro area continues to be absorbed only slowly.
Last-minute talks bid to halt first Bank of England strike in 50 years https://t.co/G84DRjU0qf
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