Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter

Rolling coverage as the latest GDP figures show the state of the eurozone, as Greece bailout talks continues

• Latest: Eurozone growth beats forecasts
• Hopes grow for Greek deal
• German GDP surges by 0.7%
• But France grows by just 0.1%
• Italy stagnates

5.34pm GMT

Amid conflicting talk about the state of talks between Greece and its creditors, investors decided to accentuate the positive ahead of Monday's key eurogroup meeting. Postive eurozone GDP data - particularly from Germany - also helped matters, with Germany's Dax hitting a new peak. This weekend's ceasefire in Ukraine added to the optimistic mood. Overall, the final scores showed:

5.20pm GMT

#Greece govt sources: We havent covered the whole distance towards an agreement, but serious steps have been made via @capitalgr

4.35pm GMT

.@J_Dijsselbloem "very pessimistic" of #Greece deal Mon. Tends not to bullsh*t. Not sure why markets so optimistic http://t.co/VikOQA3mdm

4.03pm GMT

Despite the mixed signals coming from various sources, investors are hopeful a deal between Greece and its creditors can be done, pushing the Athens stock market up 5.61% to its highest level since the middle of December.

Greek bond yields are also falling, another sign of optimism, with the 10 year yield down 91 basis points at 9.4%.

3.42pm GMT

Another negative ahead of Monday's eurogroup meeting which is attempting to find a solution to Greece's financial crisis. Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem has said he was "very pessimistic" about reaching a final debt deal. Reuters reports:

Saying Greek voters' expectations of their new government were "a mile high", Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem was asked whether a plan to resolve Athens' financial problems would be achieved on Monday. He replied, in a remark aired on Dutch television: "I'm really still very pessimistic about that now."

3.28pm GMT

Back with Greece and it appears some believe that Grexit could be contained:

*EU SEES GREEK, CYPRUS EURO EXIT AS MANAGEABLE: SPIEGEL

*ESM CHIEF REGLING WARNS AGAINST GREEK EURO EXIT: SPIEGEL

3.21pm GMT

The US confidence figure is still a strong one despite the fall and a June rate rise is in fact on the cards, says James Knightley of ING Bank:

The February preliminary reading of University of Michigan consumer confidence has come in at 93.6 versus the final reading of 98.1 in January. Markets had been looking for it to hold steady so it is a little disappointing. Nonetheless, it is still a strong reading that matches the figure recorded in December and is at a level historically consistent with decent consumer spending growth.

Looking at the breakdown the expectations component fell 3.5 points while the current conditions series dropped 6.2 points, but it is important to remember that the trend is still moving in the right directions.

3.13pm GMT

In the US, a survey of consumer confidence has come in lower than expected.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan sentiment index for February fell from 98.1 the previous month to 93.6. Analysts had expected an unchanged figure.

2.31pm GMT

EU's Juncker: Greece's Budget Balance Is Of 'Paramount Importance'

2.27pm GMT

But amid the optimism and hope that Greece and its creditors can come to a deal, there's always someone to dampen the mood. Step forward Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission:

EU's Juncker: Says Greece Is Far From A Deal With EU - France24

1.58pm GMT

With talks between Greece and its creditors starting today ahead of a key (another key) eurozone finance ministers meeting on Monday, here's Reuters' take on what is happening:

[Monday's talks} are the last moment for the new Greek government to ask for a technical extension of the current bailout programme, which runs out on February 28.

Greece needs such an extension to ensure continued official financing at a time when market borrowing is too expensive for Athens and to be eligible for negotiations on more time to repay the euro zone loans already received.

1.35pm GMT

Meanwhile, the website of #Greece's ministry of finance is facing a crisis too. Too much game theory to digest? pic.twitter.com/DyUJhurtlI

12.54pm GMT

Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has caused a bit of a stir, by comparing the Troika's actions to the CIA's waterboarding of suspected terrorists.

Varoufakis keeping that charm offensive going. Via @Schuldensuehner pic.twitter.com/8Z5uQXFUGh

Varoufakis Insists On Debt Cut For Greece, Haircut Preferable To Loan Extension: Spiegel

12.34pm GMT

A quick catch-up on Greece.

There have been encouraging signs of progress this morning, with Athens promising to stretch every sinew to reach an agreement.

"We will do whatever we can so that a deal is found on Monday,"

"If we don't have an agreement on Monday, we believe that there is always time so that there won't be a problem."

So, "institutions" it is. Berlin said "ja" Troika dead.Solid step ahead 4 a deal on Monday btw #Greece & creditors. Other issues irrelevant

Germany does not believe the Paris-based OECD can emulate the supervisory role of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund in the Greek bailout, a spokesman for the finance ministry in Berlin said on Friday.

The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) was welcome to provide its expertise to the Greek government, said spokesman Martin Jaeger, "but what we cannot envisage is an OECD role in the troika framework".

12.04pm GMT

Although this chart doesn't include today's data, it shows how Italy has been struggling badly since the eurozone crisis began:

G7 GDP performance, up to Q3 last year. Maybe the euro zone's biggest problem isn't Greece, but Italy... pic.twitter.com/M3buw6CQoa

11.35am GMT

Here's a full breakdown of all today's growth data:

11.34am GMT

One for football fans:

Tiki taka is back. Catenaccio not so much pic.twitter.com/rCyw3QGNU5 (ht @RBS_Economics)

11.27am GMT

The better than expected eurozone growth data have driven European stock markets to seven-year highs.

This is the latest in a series of signs that the economic climate might be improving, and the European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme might therefore benefit from a following wind.

Most notably the credit cycle appears finally to be showing improvement - after two and a half years of contraction, euro zone bank lending to the private sector is growing again.

11.00am GMT

Finland's economy also shrank in the last quarter, with GDP falling by 0.3% in the last quarter.

Its reputation as part of the eurozone's strong northern core has been dented by the decline of Nokia, and lower demand for its forestry and paper products. Russia's economic problems aren't helping either.

10.21am GMT

Some instant reaction to the growth figures:

German GDP growth of 0.7% in Q4 means UK (at 0.5%) no longer the fastest growing large economy in Europe

Q4 azone GDP is a familiar tale: Germany fared relatively well, France/Italy stagnated and Spain is slowly healing. Little to rejoice about.

#Euro area austerity apologists where is your #Grecovery now? As quarterly #GDP in #Greece falls 0.2% in Q4 OF 2014 #Depression

10.19am GMT

In short, Europe's economy is picking up, but growth remains much weaker than the United States (which has recorded three strong quarters)

10.18am GMT

Cyprus's economy shrank by 0.7% in the last quarter.

10.09am GMT

Greece's economy has suffered a contraction, with GDP falling by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2014

That's a blow to Athens, and suggests the recent political uncertainty has hurt its economy.

Eurostat: #Greece econ contracted by 0.2% in Q4 2014 - below expected, likely due to presidential election disruption http://t.co/rL0hEgiPPh

Fall in Greek Q4 GDP a vivid example of how the economy is connected to politics.

10.03am GMT

That 0.3% growth in the last quarter means that the Eurozone grew by 0.9% during 2014, compared to the 0.8% expected.

10.01am GMT

The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the last three months of 2014, faster than expected.

That's an improvement on the 0.2% recorded in the previous quarter, primarily thanks to forecast-busting growth in Germany.

9.39am GMT

Time for a recap, while we wait for the overall eurozone growth reading at 10am GMT.

Germany's economy has recorded unexpectedly strong growth, raising hopes that Europe's powerhouse economy has shrugged off its recent weakness.

The German economy ended a volatile year on a very strong note.

[French] exports accelerated but business investment declined. Consumer spending slowed down mainly due to weather-related reasons.

German economy rebounded with growth of 1.6% in 2014. France only managed 0.4%. Italy - GDP fell 0.4%. 14 consecutive Q's without growth.

Let the Eurozone forecast upgrades cycle begin.

9.35am GMT

That means that Portugal's economy grew by 0.9% in 2014, after shrinking by 1.4% in 2013.

9.34am GMT

And finally, Portugal has posted another quarter of growth.

The Portuguese economy expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared with the previous three months.

Portugal GDP firmer than expected at 0.5%

9.18am GMT

Keep the prosecco on ice. Italy Q4 GDP wasn't terrible (0% v -0.1% forecast), but the last positive quarter was Q2 2011. HT @RichardBarley1

9.17am GMT

The FT's Rome bureau chief, James Politi, suggests Italy's economy may finally return to growth this year:

Italian GDP flat in Q4 2014 - compared to expectations of small drop. Will raise hopes of return to growth this year after -0.4% in 2014.

9.08am GMT

Although Italy's economy didn't shrink again, the country is still lagging behind its neighbours.

Spain, for example, grew by a Germanic 0.7% during the last quarter.

Still a laggard though...Italy's flat GDP compares to +0.7% growth in Spain in Q4. Big challenges for PM Renzi remain #Italy #eurozone

9.06am GMT

Some good GDP numbers out of the Eurozone today. Germany and Italy suprising to the up side

9.03am GMT

Breaking: Italy's economy stagnated in the last three months of 2014.

GDP was unchanged across the Italian economy in the fourth quarter, beating expectations of a 0.1% decline in GDP.

Italy's economy stagnated in fourth quarter: #GDP 0.0% in Q4, -0.1% in Q3. GDP down 0.4% in 2014 as a whole

9.01am GMT

Poland's economy has slowed a little.

GDP rose by 0.6% in the October-December quarter, down from 0.8% in Q3 2014.

8.49am GMT

Germany's stock market has hit a new all-time high:

Dax reaches 11.000!

8.48am GMT

Germany should also benefit if the Ukraine ceasefire holds, says Christian Schulz of Berenberg bank:

The tailwinds from cheap oil, a weaker euro exchange rate and increasingly aggressive ECB monetary policy easing should more than offset the serious short-term risks such as Greece and Russia.

While the first half of 2015 could still be a little more subdued due to these risks, we expect German growth to reach trend levels a bit above 2% in the summer 2015.

8.47am GMT

Back to the GDP data... and Carsten Brzeski of ING reckons Germany is going to enjoy 2015:

Looking ahead, the German economy looks set to continue surfing on a wave of economic well-being.

With the strong labour market, wage increases, low energy prices and extremely low interest rates, consumers should continue to spend it. At the same time, the weak euro will definitely benefit German exports, letting them return as a growth engine.

8.45am GMT

Optimism is growing that Greece and its lenders are going to hammer out a bailout extension in time.

Germany won't insist that all elements of Greece's current aid program continue, said two officials in Berlin.

As long as the program is prolonged, they said, Germany would be open to talking about the size of Greece's budget-surplus requirement and conditions to sell off government assets.

Greek delegation at EUCO sound elated but have conceded program continuity to kill Troika

Greek government climbs down, agrees to talks with Troika as tax receipts collapse and banks get another a5bn in ELA. Reality dawns?

8.26am GMT

If you change the perspective a bit French GDP doesn't look too bad. They just don't like sudden movements. pic.twitter.com/gF1oOlFxPJ

8.23am GMT

This morning's GDP data is giving European stock markets a lift.

The ceasefire in Ukraine, and hopes of a breakthrough in the Greek bailout talks, have also helped to push the main indices up in early trading.

8.11am GMT

France's finance minister, Michel Sapin, is hopeful that the country's economy might pick up this year, after ending 2014 with growth of just 0.1%.

He told French radio that:

"It's obviously still too weak, but the conditions are ripe to permit a cleaner start of activity in 2015."

8.01am GMT

Outside the eurozone, Hungary has also outperformed expectations; its economy grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the October-December period, compared to the 2.9% expected.

7.58am GMT

The eurozone could have grown by as much as 0.4% in the last quarter, reckons Claus Vistesen, macroeconomist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.

@graemewearden Yeah, the EZ consensus of 0.2% is way too pessimistic, more like 0.4% unless Italy is a complete stinker.

7.53am GMT

Back to the Dutch data briefly, and Statistics Netherlands says the 0.5% growth was broad-based, with exports, household consumption and investments all rising.

7.49am GMT

The strong German growth figures are a "thunderbolt", says economist Andreas Rees at Unicredit.

Rees told Reuters:

"Economic recovery in Germany started much earlier than expected. Some spoke of possible recession after the summer but instead Germany rebounded. The fact that the growth comes mainly from the domestic economy gives strong grounds for optimism,"

"Thanks to 2014's strong finish we have a higher chance of seeing stronger-than-expected growth this year, which would help the rest of the euro zone."

7.41am GMT

The Netherlands has followed Germany's lead by reporting faster than expected growth.

Dutch GDP grew by 0.5% in the last quarter, according to Statistics Netherlands, beating forecasts of 0.3%.

Netherlands Q4 GDP growth of 0.5% qoq. Notwithstanding France's worrying weakness, euro zone on track for welcome 0.3% Q4 aggregate growth.

7.32am GMT

The forecast-beating German growth data suggests the eurozone may have grown faster than the 0.2% economists had expected:

German growth at 0.7% on the quarter, well ahead of consensus of 0.3%. That should push up Eurozone growth to above the expected 0.2%.

7.18am GMT

The story so far:

#German growth accelerates on consumer spending as #France slows

7.16am GMT

The surge in German exports suggests Europe's powerhouse economy is benefitting from the weak euro.

That's ironic, given the Bundesbank's attempts to prevent the European Central Bank launching its quantitative easing stimulus programme, which has helped pushed down the value of the euro.

#German #GDP powers ahead of forecasts. Economic growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter from the third, driven by climb in exports #forexnews

7.12am GMT

Destatis, the German statistics body, says that the country's economy "gained momentum towards the end of 2014," with its growth of 0.7%.

It adds:

In a quarter-on-quarter comparison (adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar variations), positive contributions were made mainly by domestic demand.

Especially households markedly increased their final consumption expenditure again. A positive development was also observed for fixed capital formation which was up on the third quarter of 2014 in machinery and equipment and especially in construction.

7.10am GMT

German exports also drove growth in the last three months of the year:

German GDP beat at .07% is basically due to 2 factors: weak euro helped exports and Germans went on a Q4 shopping spree. Very Un-German.

7.09am GMT

Germany's stats office also reports that the economy grew by 1.6% during 2014 -- that's four times as fast as France.

7.04am GMT

Instant reaction:

the German economy is showing off. Q4 GDP +0.7 after France announces a more modest 0.1% increase.

7.03am GMT

Germany has smashed growth forecasts.

Its GDP rose by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014, more than twice the 0.3% economists expected.

BIG beat from Germany

6.56am GMT

Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducrozet agrees:

(Lack of) investment is Eurozone's main problem, not only the periphery's.

"The expectation is that now France will finally be pulled out of its stagnation trap by its neighbours.

"The external conditions cannot be more favorable and on top of that you have a domestic improvement driven by credit easing at the ECB."

6.55am GMT

Sophie Pedder, Paris Bureau Chief at The Economist, is also concerned by that French investment keeps falling:

French GDP grew in Q4 21014 by 0.1% (0.4% for year). But investment was still DOWN (-0.5% in Q4). Worrying.

6.50am GMT

Today's GDP data shows that French firms remain unwilling to invest.

Gross fixed capital formation shrank by 0.5% in October-December, following a 0.6% drop in the third quarter.

CHART:French GDP +0.1% in 4Q but investment continued to decline! No real recovery before the downward trend reverses pic.twitter.com/OiCrrqMBYK

Exports accelerated markedly in Q4 (+2.3% after +0.7%), while imports kept on increasing (+1.7% after +1.3%).

6.39am GMT

4th quarter French GDP +0.1% - whoopee! annualised forecast 0.4% ( better than expected) but pretty average stuff!

6.39am GMT

Here we go: The French economy grew by just 0.1% in the last three months of 2014.

INSEE, the French statistics body, also reports that GDP rose by just 0.4% during 2014.

French GDP rose by 0.4% in 2014. Used to be forecast at 1.5%, then 1.0%, 0.5%...

6.27am GMT

Good morning.

Is the eurozone's economy continuing to struggle, or is it starting to pick up after some tough times?

"Europe always aims to find a compromise, and that is the success of Europe. Germany is ready for that.

However, it must also be said that Europe's credibility naturally depends on us respecting rules and being reliable with each other."

PM Tsipras and PEG Dijsselbloem agreed today to ask the institutions to engage with the Greek authorities to start work on a technical (1/2)

assessment of the common ground between the current program and the Greek government's plans in order to facilitate 16/2 EG discussions(2/2)