UK GDP: Britain's economy grew by 0.4% as Brexit slowdown continues - as it happened

Britain's growth rate picked up in the last three months, but remains 'subpar' amid uncertainty over the UK's future

• Full story: UK interest rate rise likely as GDP beats forecast
• Newsflash: UK growth rate rises to 0.4%
• Experts: Brexit uncertainty is still hurting the economy
• Service and manufacturing grew over the summer
• Construction is in recession
• Pound rises - interest rate rise more likely
• Robert Kennedy: What GDP doesn't measure

5.59pm BST

The stronger than expected UK growth figures have given a lift to the pound on the basis that an interest rate rise next week is almost certain. With sterling up nearly 1% against the dollar, the FTSE 100 has fallen back thanks to its host of overseas earners which lose out when the pound is stronger. German and French markets also fell back as investors took profits, while Wall Street came back from its record highs after a handful of disappointing results. The final scores in Europe showed:

4.39pm BST

Wall Street's falls are accelerating, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now down 95 points or 0.4%.

Following its recent record breaking run, any disappointment in the host of earnings reports coming out looks like an excuse for some profit taking. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

The recent US stock market surge came to a halt today, as the positive earnings releases of days gone by were nowhere to be seen. With 70% of S&P 500 earnings beating estimates, it is no surprise that confidence has been sky high of late. However, given the underperformance of AT&T and Boeing earnings, it's not a shock that the wider S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq markets are all in the red as we realise that further earnings outperformance may not be a given.

4.11pm BST

Sterling remains strong against the dollar, now up nearly 1% at $1.3261. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

The pound continued to romp higher this Wednesday, as investors indulged in a hawkish view of the morning's UK third quarter GDP reading.

Despite a better than expected pair of durable goods orders figures from the US - the core reading rose to 0.7%, while the non-core number hit 2.2% - cable widened its gains as the day went on.

3.18pm BST

3.12pm BST

US home sales for September have jumped sharply to the highest level in a decade, confounding expectations of a small decline.

US New Home Sales Change Sep: 667K (exp 554K; R prev 661K)
-New Home Sales (M/M) Sep: 18.9% (exp -1.1%; R prev -3.6%)

2.42pm BST

After their recent record breaking run, US markets have paused for breath.

A handful of companies including Chipotle and AMD released underwhelming updates, giving investors an excuse to hold fire after what has up until now been a positive earnings season.

2.24pm BST

Back with UK GDP, and here are chancellor Philip Hammond's latest thoughts on the figures:

Innovation will power the British economy of the future. My thoughts on the UK GDP statistics out today. pic.twitter.com/T97unCi5Ko

2.21pm BST

On the latest US data, Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com, said:

President Trump will be heartened by today's durable goods orders, which have come in well above expectations and point towards a manufacturing sector performing strongly, despite an uncertain economic backdrop.

The challenge for Trump will be maintaining this momentum, with a big decision due in the coming weeks on the future Janet Yellen as Fed chair.

2.19pm BST

Over in the US, there have also been some better than expected economic figures.

New orders for US made capital goods - excluding defence and aircraft - jumped 1.3% in September, better than the 0.5% rise expected by analysts. The August figure was also revised upwards, from an initial 1.1% to 1.3%.

2.14pm BST

OK, time for a quick catch-up on this morning's growth figures.

Britain's economy grew a little faster than expected in the third quarter of this year, but still below its long-term growth rate.

GDP growth of 0.4% in the third quarter. Better than expected. But still below long-term trend. Here's how different sectors contributed: pic.twitter.com/GCXPWYRlwv

"Growth in the third quarter of 2017 continued at a similar rate as seen in the first half of the year. Services, led by increases in IT, motor trades and retail, continued to drive GDP growth.

Manufacturing also boosted the economy with an improved performance after a weak second quarter.

The current pace of UK GDP growth is ok, but it could be better. While the short-term risks to demand since the Brexit vote have not materialised in a serious way, the UK economy should be riding high on the back of the on-going global upswing.

Uncertainty from Brexit is weighing on firm and household confidence.

1.56pm BST

Sterling has now gained a whole cent against the US dollar today, to $1.325.

City investors seem increasingly confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week, on the back of today's growth figures.

With many people already drowning in debt, even a small increase in mortgage rates and credit card bills could push them under. People urgently need a boost to their incomes before any rise in interest rates. Our message to the Bank of England and the government is that there should be "No rate rise without a pay rise".

1.17pm BST

Difficult times call for radical measures...and Labour MP Liam Byrne argues that Britain needs to rethink its economic model to get growth motoring again.

Writing in the Guardian, Byrne says:

London is an incredible 40% more productive than Wales. And in contrast to the shibboleths of traditional growth theory, our regions are failing to converge over very long periods of time. A bold new model would grant new fiscal freedoms to regions to borrow to invest in infrastructure and housing - as first proposed by the Keynes-inspired 1944 white paper on full employment. Devolution of the apprenticeship levy would rescue a failing policy and allow regions to coordinate technical education. And a radical boost to the Higher Education Innovation Fund would transform the power of regional universities to provide research and development to Britain's underproductive small business base.

However elegant the strategy, said Winston Churchill, it's good to occasionally look at the results. Today's economic results are disappointing. It's time to change the theory and practise of the strategy.

6/. Our economic model needs to change. Here's how: https://t.co/UnZQIXeEZ7

1.01pm BST

Duncan Weldon, head of research at the Resolution Group, says the big picture is that Britain's economy has slowed over the last decade.

That's partly due to Britain's weak productivity - a problem that no-one seems close to solving.

Increased uncertainty over the UK's future trading relationships, regulations and migration policy have led many firms to put investment on hold. The British economy has no doubt performed better than many analysts (including this one) expected since the referendum, but that performance still can't be termed "strong". It is important to remember that the UK's better-than-expected performance - relative to the most pessimistic pre-Brexit vote views - has come at a time when the global economy as a whole has been putting in a stronger performance.

This month the International Monetary Fund estimated that the global economy would grow 3.6% in 2018 and that advanced economies would expand by 2.2%. Those numbers compare to estimates of 3.2% and 2.0% before June's referendum. Meanwhile they now pencil in growth of just 1.7% for the UK next year as opposed to an estimate of 2.2% 18 months ago. In other words, while the prospects for the world economy and other developed countries have improved, our own outlook has darkened.

Related: A 0.4% rise in GDP? That's nothing to celebrate | Duncan Weldon

12.49pm BST

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, reckons that the (small) pick-up in UK growth over the summer will persuade the Bank of England to raise interest rates next week.

Related: First UK interest rate rise in a decade still likely despite modest growth

12.22pm BST

UK government bond prices have fallen since the GPD figures came out.

This has pushed the interest rate (or yield) on 10-year UK debt to 1.41% - on track for its highest level since January.

#YIELD CHART! UK 10-year bond yield rises to the highest level since early this year as #GDP growth beats estimates, rate hike more likely. pic.twitter.com/frkYwvnbPK

12.01pm BST

Chancellor Philip Hammond has told reporters in London that Britain's economy continued to outperform expectations.

Reuters has the details:

"It's a solid performance by the UK economy in the third quarter and it's outperformed market expectations as the UK economy has done overall since the referendum last year. What it shows is the underlying fundamental strength of this economy," Hammond said in televised comments to British broadcasters.

I'm at @TheCrick this morning to announce an extra 17 million for our life sciences industry: https://t.co/X4rO7FruEq pic.twitter.com/K1F0HlGDqr

11.33am BST

Labour MP Chris Leslie, who supports the Open Britain campaign, says inflation and Brexit uncertainty are holding growth back:

"These figures show the damaging impact Brexit is already having on the economy, with workers and consumers feeling the squeeze in lower wages and higher prices.

David Davis says parliament may not get vote on final deal until after Brexit happens - https://t.co/b5FW0CmqFj

11.19am BST

The pound continues to push higher, now up 0.8 of a cent at $1.322, as the City continues to price in a rate hike next month.

Big move for the pound off the back of the GDP growth. 1.3230 still the obstacle: pic.twitter.com/Bu3iMfvRh2

Growth is now weaker compared to the other major European economies and could itself be seen as tangible result of a 'Brexit effect'. The past decade has also been a time of historical low interest rates and now concern will turn towards the prospect of an imminent rise in this rate.

A rate rise could then be a disincentive in a relatively weak economy to further business growth and expansion. It is a fine balance.

11.14am BST

Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital UK, is pleased to see that manufacturing output rose by 1% during the quarter.

As the backbone of our economy, the onus is now on the government to ensure that investment continues despite Brexit uncertainty."

11.07am BST

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, says the UK economy has 'lost its sparkle', and put in another 'lacklustre performance' in the last quarter:

She fears that growth will remain subdued while Brexit plays out...

There has been a deterioration in economic performance since the start of the year, as inflation has begun to bite and consumers have started to reconsider their priorities.

This trend is likely to remain for a while, with Brexit related uncertainties looming large for consumers and businesses. Our expectations are therefore for annual GDP growth to fall short of the UK's potential and reach only around 1.5% in the short term.

11.05am BST

Britain's first interest rate rise since 2007 could be just round the corner, writes our economics correspondent Richard Partington:

British consumers are being put on notice for a rate hike from next week, as official figures show the economy expanding faster than anticipated in the three months to September.

GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017 following expansion of 0.3% in the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics. City economists had forecast growth of 0.3%.

Related: UK interest rate rise likely as GDP beats forecast to grow by 0.4%

10.56am BST

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10.48am BST

Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments, says Britain's growth rate looks 'subpar', despite avoiding the recession that some experts predicted after the EU referendum.

He adds:

The third quarter has been particularly difficult for the UK economy, with inflation ringing 3% while wage growth has been subdued.

Consumers are facing an increased squeeze in living standards while the city has been brought to its knees by the increased uncertainty over Brexit proceedings."

10.42am BST

Danielle Haralambous of the Economist Intelligence Unit, has tweeted a nice graph showing how Britain's annual growth rate has slowed (to 1.5% in the last quarter).

International context for #UK GDP. Quarterly growth rate may have surprised on the upside, but annual rate is sliding, in contrast to US, EZ pic.twitter.com/phJcNsh5Sw

10.34am BST

John McDonnell MP, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, says the UK economy is too weak, and needs more government investment - ideally in next month's Budget.

"Today's GDP figures further confirm the impact that seven wasted years of Tory economic policy has had on working households.

"Economic growth for the majority of 2017 has been below what was expected. In recent weeks leading independent forecasters have slashed growth for next year, and the latest economic data shows wages are still set to fall behind prices - squeezing living standards further.

10.14am BST

Peter Dixon, economist at Commerzbank, says Britain's economy is still suffering from the Brexit vote last year, and the slide in the value of the pound.

He argues that the 0.4% growth recorded in the July-September quarter shouldn't be celebrated.

UK GDP growth....was a little bit above what we had expected but still below the rates of growth we enjoyed back in 2016 as service sector growth appears to be running around one or two tenths slower.

This in turn may be a consequence of the weakness of consumption, triggered by the recent inflation pickup which itself is a consequence of the Brexit-induced collapse in sterling.

Brexit-related economic uncertainty is taking a toll on the economy not only in terms of getting stuck to 1.5% annual growth for 2017 Q3 but also in terms of the "quality" of the reading itself.

Indeed, since the Brexit vote, the first reading of ONS has over-estimated annual GDP growth by a notable average of 0.3%.

Year-on-year growth stands at 1.5%, which if it continues would be the weakest expansion since the crisis. The productivity puzzle remains unsolved - GDP per head lagged the headline number and increased by just 0.3%.

UK Q3 GDP growth up marginally to 0.4% signals continued lacklustre performance. No room for meaningful giveaways in the Budget next month.

10.07am BST

Here's some detail of the UK GDP report, showing that computer programming and the UK car sector grew strongly over the summer.

Here's the 10 fastest growing sectors of the UK economy in Q3. Apparently we broke a lot of things... pic.twitter.com/efFoIzyIgU

10.01am BST

The Treasury have released a comment from Chancellor Philip Hammond, although it doesn't really address the GDP figures directly....

"We have a successful and resilient economy which is supporting a record number of people in employment. My focus now, and going into the Budget, is on boosting productivity so that we can deliver higher-wage jobs and a better standard of living for people across the country.

"That is why I am visiting the Francis Crick Institute, where they are using cutting-edge research to generate real-life health improvements. The UK has world-leading expertise in life sciences - an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of people - and it is through supporting growth in these cutting-edge industries that we will build a competitive economy that works for everyone."

9.58am BST

Several analysts are pointing out that Britain's growth rate remains unimpressive, despite rising in the last quarter:

Reaction fr @XTBUK: Compared to majority of G20 countries UK growth remains tepid #ukgdp

Britain's growth is still weaker than it was in 2016, despite boost from latest GDP data https://t.co/8w2HXaprVE pic.twitter.com/3h60cZSfzz

GDP per person up 0.3% year-on-year in the third quarter. That's double the rates recorded in Q1 and Q2, but still below historical norms pic.twitter.com/YzCXgOiGKc

9.49am BST

Geraint Johnes, Professor of Economics at Lancaster University Management School, says Britain is only achieving 'stable but slow growth':

"The headline growth of 0.4% over the third quarter represents a slight increase over the second quarter figure.

"Over the year, growth is just 1.5%, and the quarterly figure suggests little momentum going forward.

9.49am BST

Sterling has risen on the back of today's growth report, up 0.25% against the US dollar to $1.317.

City traders are concluding that the pick-up in growth raises the chances of a UK interest rate rise next month.

Pound pops up to $1.3172 after U.K. #GDP rises 0.4% in Q3 vs. 0.3% estimate $gbpusd pic.twitter.com/X49ueCgct9

9.44am BST

This pick-up in UK growth means that Britain still hasn't suffered the recession that some experts predicted if the country voted to leave the EU.

However, 0.4% is a still below the UK's long-term growth rate. As this chart shows, 2017 could be the weakest year for the economy since the financial crisis (the 2012 figures are distorted by the London Olympics).

9.39am BST

If you adjust for population changes, UK GDP rose by 0.3% during the last quarter.

9.34am BST

But....UK construction output shrank for the second quarter in a row, which means Britain's building sector is in recession.

9.34am BST

Britain's service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter. It expanded by 0.4% in the July-September period.

The ONS says services was "the largest contributor to GDP growth, with a strong performance in computer programming, motor trades and retail trade."

9.30am BST

Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017.

That's up from 0.3% in the second quarter, and a little better than the City expected.

9.28am BST

Just two minutes to go until we discover how Britain's economy performed over the summer....

9.24am BST

The pound is down slightly against the US dollar this morning at $1.312, and also against the euro at a1.115.

It may move sharply in a few minutes, if the GDP figures are a surprise...

UK Q3 GDP due next.
exp 0.3%q/q, 1.5% y/y

9.04am BST

Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, says today's GDP report will influence whether UK interest rates rise this year (for the first time in a decade).

"With expectations still rife that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month, today's GDP figures will be closely scrutinised to see whether they give any excuse for policymakers to hold fire or if they support their hawkish intent.

Uncertainty about Brexit, the relatively fragile state of the British economy and fears over personal debt and household incomes could all be making Mr Carney think twice about whether now is the right time to start the process of raising rates. However, the prospect of delaying could lead to accusations of the MPC crying wolf again and severely dent sterling. Rocks and hard places abound, and the Governor will be keeping his fingers crossed that today's figure gives him a valid excuse either way.

8.50am BST

The Treasury have created a little video explaining how GDP works:

New #GDP figures are published today at 9.30am - find out what that means and why it matters: https://t.co/EJvB2mVvXK pic.twitter.com/M0YgzAQ6Wo

8.42am BST

While we wait for the UK growth report, do listen to Robert Kennedy explaining how GDP is an imperfect measure.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.

It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

8.31am BST

Britain's economy outperformed the eurozone for several years, during the euro debt crisis.

But as this chart show, the eurozone's growth rate caught up in 2016, and outpaced the UK so far this year. That has probably helped Britain avoid a sharper downturn this year.

#UKGDP out today pic.twitter.com/8YJJLGkPkJ

7.57am BST

Good morning. We're about to discover how well Britain's economy is performing in the face of Brexit uncertainty, rising inflation and persistently weak productivity.

#UK growth was ahead of G7 economies one year ago, but has now fallen behind as #Brexit prospects are hurting the economy pic.twitter.com/pUXQ0KDhi8

Worth mentioning on the day of Boris' "let the lion roar" speech, parliament's economic briefing showed UK had lowest GDP growth in G7 pic.twitter.com/tmG3ADRpkj

However, it is far from clear whether or not the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP will reveal growth of 0.2% q/q or 0.3% q/q. Our long-standing forecast has been 0.2% q/q, which we will stick with following news of a contraction in the services sector in July.

It is also highly probable that, even with a recovery in September, for the quarter as a whole the construction sector will end up being a drag on growth. Against those headwinds, industrial production has been on a much better footing in Q3, so the overall growth estimate will depend on the extent to which the services sector rebounded in August and September.

Overall, October is shaping up to be a painful trading month for Sterling, especially in light of deteriorating economic fundamentals and slow progress on Brexit talks weighing heavily on the currency.

Inflation in the U.K. has jumped to a five-and-a-half year high at 3%, while wage growth remains subdued. With households feeling the squeeze as wage growth continues to fall behind inflation, concerns remain elevated over the sustainability of the U.K.'s consumer-driven economic growth.