A 0.4% rise in GDP? That’s nothing to celebrate | Duncan Weldon
The best one-word description of today's GDP figures is "contested". Brexiteers have seized on the fact that the economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter, marginally ahead of the expected 0.3%, as further evidence that the warnings about leaving the EU were simply part of "project fear". Meanwhile, pro-remain voices have been quick to retort that 0.4% is a still a very low number and that the annual growth rate of the economy has slipped to just 1.5% in the latest release, against 1.9% in the last quarter before the referendum. The messy politics of low, but not actually disastrously low, growth feel familiar to anyone who watched the UK economic debate in 2011 and 2012.
At risk of being called a spoilsport, it's never worth investing too much time in arguing about or overanalysing one piece of economic data - especially when it is the first of three estimates and due to be revised in a few weeks' time in any case. Whatever the final number ends up as, the bigger picture is looking increasingly clear. The UK economy has slowed considerably over the past decade. In the years before the financial crisis we became accustomed to quarterly growth of about 0.7% and yet today some people are arguing that 0.4% is a "good result".
Related: UK GDP: Britain's economy grew by 0.4% as Brexit slowdown continues - business live
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