Brace yourself for the next Brexit faultline: the battle over transition | John Springford

Will Theresa May be able to convince her party of the necessity for a transition period, during which the UK obeys EU rules without having any say in them?

" John Springford is director of research at the Centre for European Reform in London

European Union leaders have confirmed that "sufficient progress" has been made to move Brexit talks on to the terms of transition and a future trade relationship between the EU and Britain. The EU's strategy - impose a series of deadlines that force Theresa May to choose between the huge political and economic costs of "no deal" or acceding to the EU's demands - has worked for it so far. May has agreed to pay up, secure citizens' rights, and negotiated a form of words on the Irish border vague enough to appease Dublin, Belfast, Westminster and Brussels. The next deadline is March 2018, the first point at which the EU will be ready to talk about the future relationship. EU officials are calling for May to spell out in more detail what sort of relationship she wants before then.

So May has three months to find a consensus among her cabinet colleagues on a desired Brexit end-state. She will need to balance the demands of hardliners such as Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, with those of Philip Hammond and other moderates. But, given her Brexit red lines, the EU will offer a standstill transition for two or three years, in exchange for a non-binding political declaration sketching a trade deal far worse than single market membership.

A standstill transition is all that is on offer, and it is the only way out of the EU that avoids the cliff-edge

Related: Brexit is putting me off this whole 'will of the people' idea | Matthew d'Ancona

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