Elon Musk says the Falcon Heavy has a 50-50 chance of success

Enlarge / Musk at the launch pad on Monday with Ars. (credit: Trevor Mahlmann for Ars Technica)

LAUNCH COMPLEX 39A, FLORIDA-Elon Musk stepped confidently from a black SUV on Monday afternoon, and his mouth spread into a wide grin as he surveyed the nearby launchpad. Just a quarter of mile away, his Falcon Heavy rocket loomed high in the sky, with sunlight glinting off its three white boosters.

"It's small, don't you think?" he quipped. "I think we need to step up our game."

So began our interview with the founder of SpaceX on the eve of the launch of the most powerful rocket on Earth. During our time at the launchpad, we were most interested in the risks involved in such a test flight, with a brand new rocket packing the equivalent of four million pounds of TNT. And Musk was happy to oblige.

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