Can hemlines and divorce rates really predict a recession?

Studying statistics is not the only way to spot signs of a downturn. Here are a few of the more unlikely economic indicators

In the search for how to predict the next recession, - sadly, you just know another one will be along sooner or later - economists are willing to look well beyond the traditional statistics.

Researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research think they might have found a new way to spot recessions early, based on a long-running truism that birthrates fall during recessions. They have gone one step earlier and looked at conception rates instead, and found these drop several months before any other signs of a recession - meaning we might have a new way to see them coming. However, as a sign no indicator is perfect, the US conception rate appeared to drop sharply late in 2014, with no corresponding recession having followed - yet.