Bank of England gives mixed signals on rate rise, Trump slams Opec on oil prices - as it happened

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, suggests expectations that UK interest rates will rise in May could be overblown. But his colleague Michael Saunders says the economy no longer needs as much stimulus

• UK interest rate rise is not a foregone conclusion, Carney says
• BoE's Saunders: rate hikes should be 'gradual not glacial'
• Trump slams Opec over 'artificially high' oil price
• Barclays boss Jes Staley to be fined over whistleblowing scandal
• FTSE 100 boosted by weaker pound, outperforms European peers
• Royal Mail boss Moya Greene to retire after eight years in the job

5.45pm BST

The weakness in sterling against the dollar has given a lift to the UK stock market. The FTSE 100, full of overseas earners which benefit from a fall in the pound, has outperformed European rivals and a downbeat Wall Street. The final scores showed:

5.27pm BST

Pharmaceutical group Shire has responded to the fourth takeover proposal from Japan's Takeda, which values the target at 47 a share.

As before, Shire says it is considering its position and will make a further announcement in due course. Shire shares closed in London at 3821.5p, down 3.8%.

4.54pm BST

With last night's comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney casting some doubt on whether there will indeed be an interest rate rise in May, the pound continues to slip back against the dollar.

It is currently down 0.43% at $1.4028 having soared as high as $1.4376 earlier this week. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

[The pound] is under pressure after Mark Carney's comments last night. In recent months there was a lot of speculation the Bank of England could hike interest rates next month, and in light of Mr Carney's remarks, a rate rise looks less likely now. Traders are almost evenly divided over whether there will be a rate hike next month. The pound has enjoyed a positive run recently, and we are now seeing some profit-taking.

Sterling has been rising versus the US dollar for over a year, and while it holds above the 1.3800 region, its outlook could remain positive.

4.06pm BST

Oil prices have slipped further after Donald Trump's Twitter intervention into the market. Brent crude is now down 0.64% at $73.31 a barrel after earlier hitting a day's high of $74.15. Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said:

Oil prices [have] rolled over from three-year highs. US President Donald Trump has found another financial market to tweet about. The Donald tweeted that OPEC has pushed oil prices artificially high. It's hard to argue against, that's the purpose of forming a cartel.

It won't have escaped Trump's attention that rising gasoline prices can quickly eclipse any financial benefits to rust belt America from his tax cuts. The question is whether Trump has more than bluster on Twitter to impact the oil price. He probably does, but these tools are already in use. The US government has already opened up drilling rights on and offshore and US production is soaring as a result, adding to supply to the market.

3.53pm BST

Here's Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui, the minister of energy in the United Arab Emirates, on the oil market:

OPEC members are not targeting any price level rather targeting a well balanced market and our efforts together with our partners from Non-OPEC alliance have helped the market rebalance and the oil industry

3.27pm BST

Back with the UK and the comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney, Investec's chief economist still expects a rate hike in May:

BoE Gov Carney's talk of 'mixed data' is perhaps a euphemism for soft inflation. We still expect a May rate increase, but for lower inflation to make the MPC more dependent on labour market data to justify hikes. #BOE

3.25pm BST

The better than expected eurozone consumer confidence figures come despite all the negative headlines surrounding US sanctions and a possible trade war with China. Economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said:

Even though worries about the global economy have been increasing on the back of trade war concerns and a higher oil price, there is still a lot to like for the Eurozone consumer. Inflation has remained subdued despite the higher oil price and unemployment continues to decrease. While consumers may not be on cloud nine anymore, the economic environment remains positive for consumption.

Last month, consumer confidence was stable at 0.1, but underlying data revealed another deterioration in consumer sentiment. The lower expectations for inflation count positively in the indicator, making up for deteriorating views on the global economy, personal finances and chances of unemployment. The uncertainty in the global economy stemming from trade war concerns seems to play an important role here. ECB president Mario Draghi recently commented that the direct effects of a trade war on the economy would be quite limited, but that damage through weaker confidence could have a more harmful effect on growth. This release suggests that this channel may not be that concerning for consumers so far, but next week's PMI release may prove Draghi's concerns to be more significant for the business sector.

3.20pm BST

Over in the eurozone and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in April.

The European Commission said its consumer confidence index climbed to 0.4, up from 0.1 in March and better than the forecast fall to -0.2. The commission said:

The Eurozone's consumer confidence indicator rose by 0.3 points from the previous month to 0.4 in April 2018, easily beating market expectations of -0.2, a flash estimate showed. In the European Union as a whole, consumer sentiment decreased by 0.5 points to -0.8.

3.14pm BST

Oil producers meeting in Jeddah have hit back after Donald Trump said they were keeping crude prices "artificially high". Reuters reports:

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said the pact between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production had halted the collapse in global oil prices, and said the group was a friend of the United States with an interest in its prosperity.

Output cuts "not only arrested the decline but rescued the oil industry from imminent collapse and is now on course to restore stability on a sustainable basis in the interest of producers, consumers and the global economy," Barkindo said.

3.02pm BST

The bid saga surrounding pharmaceuticals group Shire continues, with Japanese predator Takeda announcing an increase in its offer.

The terms are improved from 46.50 to 47 a share, comprising 21 in cash and 26 of new Takeda shares. The new offer values Shire at around 43bn.

2.58pm BST

Nissan is planning to cut hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland factory in response to the sharp fall in demand for diesel cars.

The Japanese car manufacturer makes its Qashqai and Juke models at the plant, and said it was talking to workers about the changes.

We will be managing a planned short-term reduction in powertrain supply and plant volumes.

2.51pm BST

It's been a volatile day for the pound against the dollar.

Sterling is currently down 0.5% at $1.4019, weighed down by Mark Carney's comments last night in which he suggested a May rate is not a done deal.

2.37pm BST

Here's how it looked when the opening bell rang on Wall Street:

2.33pm BST

The FTSE 100 is up 50 points or 0.3% but not all of the UK's biggest listed firms are having a good day.

Shares in consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser are down 3.9%, while drugmaker Shire is down 4.3% after Allergan pulled the plug on a potential takeover bid.

2.15pm BST

Andrew Goodwin, lead economist at Oxford Economics, says Mark Carney's comments last night are a "game changer" and suggest the next rate rise could be put off until June or August:

Mark Carney's BBC interview on Thursday night threatens to be a game changer in terms of May's Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

The MPC had consistently talked up the chances of a May hike, despite a lengthy run of soft economic data, but the Governor gave a clear sign that the Committee is wavering.

2.09pm BST

Time for another look at the markets across Europe, where the FTSE is still ahead of the pack:

1.52pm BST

The UK economy is not the only item on the agenda over at the IMF's spring meetings in Washington. Helena Smith reports from Athens.

After almost a decade of economic crisis and the biggest bailout in global financial history, Greece will be in the spotlight today when international creditors meet in Washington to discuss a debt relief plan for the country.

1.37pm BST

If there is some discrepancy in the Bank of England's view of the economy - Mark Carney seeing signs of weakness, Michael Saunders less so - then Chancellor Philip Hammond seems to be on the side of positivity.

Speaking at a lunch at the International Monetary Fund's spring meeting in Washington, Hammond said he was feeling "Tiggerish" about the UK economy, with debt going down, inflation falling and real wages rising.

1.01pm BST

Scottish Power has become the third of the "big six" energy suppliers to announce price rises for some of its customers.

Unfortunately our standard variable prices are increasing. This reflects rising wholesale energy costs and compulsory non-energy costs. Two-thirds of our customers are unaffected.

We will be contacting all customers affected by the price change to give them the opportunity to move to a fixed price tariff alternative and avoid this increase.

12.31pm BST

Donald Trump has criticised Opec over "artificially high" oil prices:

Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!

12.10pm BST

Will the remaining seven members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee vote with the governor, Mark Carney, or Michael Saunders, at the May policy meeting?

That is the key question according to Craig Erlam, analyst at currency specialist Oanda, based on the assumption that Carney will vote to leave rates unchanged at 0.5% and Saunders will vote for a hike to 0.75%. Erlam says:

While a hike is by no means off the table, the comments from Carney are a clear and deliberate warning to markets that the Monetary Policy Committee could delay the move by a few months, at which point the data may be less sketchy and the outlook more clear. Market expectations have since fallen to around 45% for a rate hike and could fall further if fellow policy makers join Carney is playing down an increase in a few weeks.

One policy maker that won't be joining him is Michael Saunders, who spoke this morning about the need to raise interest rates at a "gradual" not "glacial" pace and questioned the significance of first quarter data due to the weather.

11.49am BST

Investors appear to be placing their bets back on a May rate hike after a typically hawkish speech from Michael Saunders.

11.22am BST

Saunders' takes a different view to Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England.

Carney said on Thursday night that some of the recent data, such as retail sales, had been softer, and pointed to the fact that inflation has fallen faster than the Bank was predicting in February.

Sensible comments here from Michael Saunders. Hopefully his fellow #MPC members will take note. https://t.co/S3crD8ALbZ

11.07am BST

The Bank of England's Michael Saunders says that "gradual" rate rises does not mean just one per year:

'Gradual' does not imply that the MPC can only raise rates at a very low frequency, such as once per year. Nor does "gradual" mean that the MPC cannot tighten faster than markets price in.

'Gradual' does not necessarily mean that the exact timing of rate changes must be totally predictable or signalled in advance.

The MPC does not intend to create unnecessary uncertainty, and gives guidance - based on our economic forecasts - on the expected general outlook for interest rates.

10.57am BST

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, will be sticking with his vote to raise UK rates in May, his comments in Glasgow suggest.

With spare capacity largely used up and cost pressures rising, I believe the economy no longer needs as much stimulus as previously. Rather, we probably need to move over time to something more like neutral, in order to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to target.

The second topic is to explain why - at least from my perspective - any further tightening is likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. A key point is that "gradual" need not mean "glacial".

10.24am BST

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, is giving a speech in Glasgow this morning.

His comments will be scrutinised by investors and economists hoping for further clues about the likelihood (or not) of a May rate rise.

9.49am BST

Economists at the Bank of America say they are sticking with the assumption that UK rates will rise in May, for now at least:

Until last night we assumed the weak data flow would not derail a May hike. There were no signs of cold feet at the Bank of England after a hawkish March policy meeting and rate setter Jan Vlieghe arguing for six hikes in the next three years.

Then last night Governor Mark Carney suggested delay. In a BBC interview he said the BoE was conscious of "other meetings over the course of the year" when they could hike.

9.46am BST

British government bond prices are rising this morning, as investors are less convinced that interest rates will rise in May.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, suggested markets might have got carried away by assuming a hike would come next month.

9.31am BST

Moya Greene's departure from Royal Mail will leave the FTSE 100 with just six female chief executives, at a time when the government is pushing for greater boardroom diversity.

It has been my pleasure and a great privilege to serve as chief executive of this cherished UK institution. I am proud of what we have achieved over the last eight years. It is very pleasing to note that around 20% of this company is owned by our employees and retail shareholders.

Most of all, I am honoured to have worked alongside Royal Mail's people and the union leadership. It is their hard work and dedication that connects households, communities and companies across the UK every day.

9.02am BST

Royal Mail has announced that Moya Greene will step down as chief executive in June, after more than eight years in the job.

Royal Mail was highly fortunate to recruit Moya, given her direct experience, strategic vision, drive and proven track record across a range of industry sectors.

When Moya joined in the summer of 2010, the company was balance sheet insolvent. Since then, Royal Mail has been transformed, including our privatisation in 2013 and two significant, ground-breaking agreements with the CWU [Communication Workers Union].

8.45am BST

After a short break, the unreliable boyfriend is back according to Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

Mark Carney may well rue the day back in 2014 that MP Pat McFadden accused the Bank of behaving like an "unreliable boyfriend" by giving mixed messages on the likely timing of an interest rate rise.

Sterling traders could be forgiven for experiencing a significant case of di(C)ji vu in the wake of yesterday's remarks, as this isn't the first time the Bank of England has led markets up the garden path, they did it in 2014, with the Bank of England governor earning the unfortunate moniker of the "unreliable boyfriend" from a UK MP for his flip flopping on whether to raise interest rates.

It would appear that after a short break he's back.

Related: Bank of England behaving like an unreliable boyfriend, say MPs

8.25am BST

The UK's FTSE 100 is outperforming its major European peers this morning as it benefits from a weaker pound.

8.16am BST

The Barclays board is giving its full support to chief executive Jes Staley this morning, despite regulators concluding that he breached conduct by trying to discover the identity of a whisteblower.

From the Barclays statement:

The Barclays board continues to have unanimous confidence in Mr Staley and continues to recommend his re- election as a director at the Barclays annual general meeting on 1 May 2018.

As set out in the April 2017 announcement, the Barclays board will determine what adjustment to Mr Staley's compensation is appropriate once the FCA and PRA processes have concluded.

Barclays CEO Jes Staley will keep his job, after regulators conclude whistle-blower investigation https://t.co/4RHbPWkwoR pic.twitter.com/0I0X50lEEB

8.07am BST

Barclays' chief executive Jes Staley is to be fined by UK regulators over his attempt to uncover the identity of a whistleblower in 2016, the bank revealed this morning.

In respect of Mr Staley, the FCA and PRA have recently issued confidential draft warning notices setting out their reasons for proposing enforcement actions.

The FCA and PRA are alleging that Mr Staley's actions in relation to this matter represented a breach of Individual Conduct Rule 2 (requirement to act with due skill, care and diligence) and each have proposed that he pay a financial penalty.

Related: Barclays boss used bank's security team to hunt for whistleblower

7.50am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The pound is down this morning after Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted that market expectations that interest rates would rise in May were overblown.

Prepare for a few interest rate rises over the next few years," he told me.

I don't want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path.

Related: UK interest rates rise not a foregone conclusion, says Bank