We are due a recession in 2020 –and we will lack the tools to fight it | Nouriel Roubini

Conditions will soon be ripe for a financial crisis, but governments will have their hands tied

As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.

The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.

Related: Lehman collapse: what has happened to the markets since?

Related: What became of the G20 leaders who met in 2008 to avert financial crisis?

Related: Ten years on from the crash, we need to get ready for another one | Robert Skidelsky