Article 423JD US economy smashes forecasts with 250,000 jobs added – as it happened

US economy smashes forecasts with 250,000 jobs added – as it happened

by
Jasper Jolly
from on (#423JD)

Rolling coverage of market reaction to Donald Trump's trade optimism and US non-farm payrolls

1.58pm GMT

With the words of Donald Trump, we are closing for the week.

Thank you for following business live today. JJ

1.55pm GMT

US president Donald Trump wasted little time in hailing the jobs report, encouraging Americans to back his party in the upcoming midterm elections.

Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October - and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican!

1.33pm GMT

Dow Jones Industrial average gains 140 points, or 0.5%, at the open.

1.18pm GMT

Unemployment in the US was last lower in 1969, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

Payrolls growth has accelerated from an average of 182,000 per month in 2017 to 213,000 per month in 2018. The economy is booming and the bigger struggle for companies is actually finding labour to fill their vacancies.

1.15pm GMT

More reaction from economists to the data, with thoughts turning to the next rate-setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body.

Josie Dent, an economist, Centre for Economics and Business Research, said:

Today's positive jobs data increase the likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates in the coming months from their current rate of between 2% and 2.25%.

Despite the strong jobs market data, higher than expected Q3 GDP growth and bullish narrative from Powell, FOMC members will be cautious going into the meeting next week due to the considerable stock market corrections seen over the past month.

1.01pm GMT

The pace of wage growth is good news for the US president, Donald Trump, writes the Guardian's Dominic Rushe in New York.

In September wages were 3.1% higher than they were a year ago - the first time since April 2009 that wage growth has topped 3%. Despite the record-breaking streak of jobs growth, wage rises have remained stubbornly since the end of the recession.

Related: US jobs report: wages grow at fastest rate in decade as 250,000 jobs added

12.55pm GMT

The bumper 250,000 gain followed a more modest 118,000 increase in September, but Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, cautions that hurricane disruption in September may be affecting the data.

It's possible that we could be in for another 200,000 plus number in November, as the remainder of those disruptions is reversed.

12.51pm GMT

While the headline US unemployment figure did not tick lower, there is a clear downward trend across demographic groups - a factor in the Federal Reserve's thinking.

Unemployment Rate by Demographic Groups {@TheTerminal Chart Link: https://t.co/UbFRLk0Vh3 } pic.twitter.com/AHBlRmHzme

12.44pm GMT

The key question for investors is whether wage growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster.

Kully Samra, vice president at Charles Schwab, said:

October's data shows the labour market is tightening even further. Significant wage growth since last month, combined with high consumer confidence, underpins our belief that the US will see solid economic growth into next year.

However, despite a growing economy, there are signs that volatility is returning. Companies, especially tech giants, are reporting mixed earnings and the market still expects ongoing trade wars to hit stocks further. The chance of a rate rise in December has slipped slightly, but concerns remain that too many interest rate hikes too soon could impact domestic growth as the cost of borrowing increases.

12.42pm GMT

Wage growth came in at 3.1%, the first time it has topped 3% since 2009.

12.31pm GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, far above consensus estimates of 190,000.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.

12.28pm GMT

The US jobs gauge will be closely watched by economists and investors for signs of lower unemployment, which could spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a quicker pace.

12.26pm GMT

US president Donald Trump's optimism on a trade deal with China at the end of the month may be overdone, according to CNBC's Washington correspondent, Eamon Javers.

NEW: A senior administration official tells me that the report president Trump is ready to cut a trade deal with China is not true. "There is a long way to go" on negotiations, the official said.

11.54am GMT

Two people are believed to have been stabbed in an incident at Sony Music's London headquarters, with armed police on the scene.

Related: Two people stabbed at Sony Music's London HQ

11.49am GMT

London's blue-chip index hit its highest point since 10 October this morning, having gained just shy of 1%.

11.35am GMT

No danger of Italy leaving the EU says Juncker

Amid the risk-on mood on European markets, it is worth remembering that significant political uncertainty is hanging over the EU in the form of the dispute between Italy and the European Commission.

The alarming decline in in the Italian index is the stand-out detail to the downside, raising further downside risks for the economy amid an already stalling economy in Q3. An outright GDP contraction is now well within the realms of possibility in coming quarters.

11.21am GMT

Apple concerns after earnings report

While stock markets on the whole are still enjoying positive momentum from the Trump's optimism on trade with China, Apple is the unlikely outlier giving investors pause ahead of the open of US indices.

10.34am GMT

The last note to be launched was the plastic tenner featuring Jane Austen, the author.

10.31am GMT

In money news of a different variety, the Bank of England today launched its campaign to nominate the new face of its 50 note.

Governor Mark Carney wants a scientist (and a dead one at that) to grace the new notes, which will be the latest to get a plastic makeover.

Related: New 50 note: Bank of England asks public to nominate scientist

10.19am GMT

Midway through the morning, European indices are holding on to most of their early gains.

10.12am GMT

Simon Wright, the chief executive of Crossrail, will be replaced by the head of the London Underground following the government's 350m bailout of the struggling project.

Related: TfL to borrow 350m after Crossrail delay drives it into the red

9.54am GMT

The construction PMI reading remains "above the magic 50 mark" - indicating a continued expansion in output - says Max Jones, global corporates relationship director for infrastructure and construction at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking.

The October reading was "fairly modest", he said, "neither racing ahead nor stuck in the doldrums".

The commercial segment appears to be being sustained by urban-focused developers responding to the still-buoyant growth of many regional cities, while the UK's insatiable appetite for online shopping is driving the construction of distribution space in and around key transport hubs.

9.47am GMT

The current output figures look fairly solid for the construction industry - at least in comparison to the last two years - with the second-strongest expansion in the last 16 months.

Civil engineering - big infrastructure projects like roads and railways - was the biggest driver of the output increase, after weakness earlier in the year, IHS Markit said.

New contracts increased at only a modest pace, and firms were the least optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for nearly six years. Construction companies again linked uncertainty to Brexit negotiations, which influenced delays to final decisions at clients.

9.39am GMT

Breaking: UK construction output rises but outlook weak

The construction purchasing managers index (PMI), which is closely followed by economists, rose from a six-month low in September to a reading of 53.2 points for October, according to data firm IHS Markit.

9.35am GMT

Sterling is on course for its second best week of the year so far in the wake of the Bank of England's latest interest rate decision.

The pound had its best day of 2018 so far on Thursday thanks to a combination of positive reports on Brexit talks and a relatively sanguine Bank of England.

Given [signs of wage growth] and resilient household confidence and momentum, the BoE maintained that gradual rate hikes were appropriate but that they could quicken the pace of hikes in the event of an orderly Brexit.

8.58am GMT

US president Donald Trump's Twitter feed has set the tone for early trading.

He said his "long and very good conversation" with Chinese president Xi Jinping last night had "a heavy emphasis on Trade", with a capital T.

Before breaking out the beautiful chocolate cake, it is worth remembering that China would also have to agree, and has the capacity to hold out against current sanctions.

Note his comments came as the US Justice Department is stepping up actions against China in cases of suspected economic espionage and as trade dove [Larry] Kudlow cautioned that Trump would "aggressively" pursue his agenda against China.

8.24am GMT

It's worth taking a look at just how much Asia's stock exchanges gained overnight.

While we are still cautious over a full resolution of recent tensions in the medium term, resumption of dialogue between Washington and Beijing would be good enough to investors for now.

Combined with the prospects of more economic stimulus from China and reasonable valuations in Asian equities, investors could use this opportunity to reload on emerging market and Asia assets. The US dollar is still edging higher but Asia has been more resilient on handling greenback strength than other emerging markets.

8.11am GMT

The FTSE 100 has taken its cue from Asian trading at the open, bouncing by more than 1% in its first few minutes before retreating to a 0.8% gain.

The positive sentiment is spreading across Europe, with Italian shares up by 1.2%. Investors in Sweden, Poland and even Russia are having a good time.

7.57am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!

I'm not entirely sure what to make of this. But it feels too big a change of direction following the [vice president] Mike Pence speech some weeks ago to be taken literally. It certainly isn't in synch with the latest charge of a Chinese company for conspiring to steal trade secrets.

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