The growing risk of a 2020 recession and crisis | Nouriel Roubini

The China-US trade war could derail the world economy but central banks lack tools to fight any crisis

Last summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.

Many involve the United States. Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers, could have profound implications for global supply chains, raising the threat of stagflation (slowing growth alongside rising inflation). And the risk of a US growth slowdown has become more acute now that the stimulus from the 2017 tax legislation has run its course.

Related: The US economic recovery is far from being a world record | Jeffrey Frankel