Investors focus on crunch G20 meeting between Trump and Xi - business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as traders monitor the meeting in Osaka for signs of a break in the trade deadlock between the US and China

• G20: world leaders urge Trump and Xi to reach a trade deal
• Jony Ive, Apple designer behind iPhone and iMac, leaves after 30 years
• UK growth confirmed at 0.5% in the first quarter
• Eurozone inflation stable at 1.2% in June

3.04pm BST

Global investors are firmly focused on events in Osaka, Japan, where world leaders are gathered for the G20 summit and where the trade is top of the agenda.

Key trade talks between President Trump and President Xi are scheduled for Saturday morning and traders and global leaders alike are hoping for a breakthrough.

Related: Jony Ive: 8 hits and 8 misses from 20 years at Apple

2.39pm BST

The opening bell has rung and US markets are higher.

2.06pm BST

G20 leaders gathered in Osaka have voiced concerns over trade tensions. Reuters reports:

The bitter US-China trade war and signs of slowdown in the global economy have overshadowed a two-day Group of 20 summit that kicked off in Osaka, western Japan, on Friday with a session on the world economy and trade.

G20 heads struggle to narrow differences beyond their concern on global growth https://t.co/VCCusM3uae pic.twitter.com/lIIvW3DweD

1.39pm BST

Figures this morning confirmed the UK economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, following 0.2% growth in the final three months of 2019.

But "payback" is coming in the second quarter, according to Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the forecasting group, the EY Item Club:

The UK economy has clearly suffered a serious slowdown since the first quarter and we suspect GDP could very well contract slightly in the second quarter.

There has clearly been payback in the second quarter from the stockpiling that occurred in the first quarter while an additional hit came from car manufacturers bringing forward their summer shutdowns to April (to limit any disruptions should a disruptive Brexit have occurred at the end of March).

12.34pm BST

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at currency firm Oanda, puts the latest bitcoin moves into context:

The wild ride continues in the world of crypto, with bitcoin brushing off what would be a devastating 24 hours for any other asset, tumbling 25% in that time, to rebound more than 10% at the time of writing. I say this because this market moves so rapidly that it's probably out of date by the time I've finished writing this sentence.

When it comes to bitcoin, nothing surprises me so predicting whether we'll end the day back at new highs for the year or in the red is pointless. What is clear is that the Facebook story has re-energised the space in a remarkable way and reminded us of what we were seeing on a daily basis in late 2017. Suddenly $20,000 isn't looking too far away but as we learned early last year, $3,000 isn't either.

12.23pm BST

The rollercoaster that is bitcoin's price graph continues, having climbed to almost $14,000 this week before lurching to just above $10,000 the next day.

11.49am BST

President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has a chat with President Trump during the G20 summit in Osaka:

11.29am BST

The mood among investors in Europe has picked up, as traders hope that progress will be made in Osaka tomorrow when the leaders of the world's two largest economies meet to discuss trade.

The latest scores:

11.16am BST

Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, agrees the rise in core inflation will not deter Draghi and his colleagues on the ECB's governing council:

The limited breakdown available shows that core inflation (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) rose from 0.8% in May to 1.1% in June.

While Eurostat does not provide any further breakdown of services prices, the French statistical official attributed much of the increase there to higher transport prices, and state-level data suggest that much of the increase in German inflation was due to higher prices of package holidays and airfares, reflecting the larger number of public holidays in June this year. Much of this may be reversed in July.

10.56am BST

Although the headline rate of eurozone inflation was steady at 1.2%, core inflation - stripping out volatile energy and food prices - rose to 1.1% in June from 0.8% in May.

However, economists said the rise in core inflation will not deter Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, who dropped heavy hints last week that ECB policymakers are ready to pump fresh stimulus into the eurozone economy.

Core inflation has been bouncing around on Easter timing effects and the recovery from 0.8 to 1.1% should more realistically reflect the current underlying inflation environment. Even though wage growth continues to increase at a steady pace, reflecting the improved labour market environment, businesses continue to be reluctant to price through those higher costs to the consumer.

The inflation outlook therefore remains sluggish. With energy base effects pushing down the outlook for the coming months, headline inflation will continue to face downward pressures. On top of that, businesses have indicated softer expectations for selling prices on the back of economic uncertainty. The improved core inflation figure will therefore be easily brushed aside in the discussions about fresh ECB action: it's coming.

Related: Donald Trump attacks ECB for 'currency manipulation'

10.40am BST

The eurozone's annual inflation rate was 1.2% in June, unchanged from May, according to the "flash" estimate from statistics agency Eurostat.

The main drivers of inflation were food, alcohol and tobacco, energy and services:

10.25am BST

Much has been made of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on business investment, as firms delay or redirect spending plans until the picture is clearer.

Some good news then in the ONS figures, which showed business investment increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019, compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, to 46.9bn. The biggest contributor to growth was investment in "buildings and structures", as well as intellectual property.

10.11am BST

A breakdown of the UK growth figures shows there were some revisions in the detail since the first estimate.

Growth in the services sector was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%, while construction output was revised up to 1.4% from 1%.

9.38am BST

The second estimate of UK growth in the first quarter is out and there the headline numbers are unchanged.

The economy grew by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, and by 1.8% year-on-year according to the Office for National Statistics.

GDP grew solidly and was unrevised in the first quarter of 2019, with manufacturing seeing strong growth due to orders being brought forward ahead of the UK's original EU departure date.

Household saving has been historically low for 18 months, following a marked drop off in non-pension saving in recent years.

9.32am BST

A consortium led by the family that controls the Lego toymaking empire is to buy Merlin Entertainments for 5.9bn.

Related: Lego consortium buys Merlin Entertainments theme parks for 5.9bn

9.11am BST

Away from Japan, there have been some major developments in the corporate world.

While I will not be an employee, I will still be very involved - I hope for many, many years to come. This just seems like a natural and gentle time to make this change.

Related: Jony Ive, Apple designer behind iPhone and iMac, to exit company after 30 years

8.48am BST

Over in Osaka, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, struck an upbeat tone after meeting world leaders.

The IMF warned earlier this month that the the tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China would cost $455bn (357.5bn) in lost output next year.

I appreciated the opportunity to meet with world leaders at the #G20OsakaSummit and discuss how we can work together to generate more jobs and inclusive growth for the global economy. pic.twitter.com/mW2Vdcmsnh

8.37am BST

Trading in Europe has got off to a fairly quiet start as investors pause to weigh up the potential risks and rewards from tomorrow's meeting between Trump and Xi:

8.29am BST

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, says that any trade war truce struck between the US and China at the G20 is likely to be short-lived:

Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China's economy and markets in the short-run, any gains will probably prove fleeting with a renewed escalation in trade tensions still likely further down the road.

7.59am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The meeting of G20 leaders is underway in Osaka, Japan, and there is one question on investor minds: will the meeting between President Trump and President Xi break the deadlock on trade between the US and China?

This weekend, markets will find out whether their hopes for a restoration in US-China trade talks will become reality, and whether the scope for further deterioration in bilateral relations would be significantly constrained.

It remains to be seen whether the public displays of chest-thumping from both sides since May will eventually lead to handshakes and smiles on Saturday. Such a reconciliatory image out of the Trump-Xi meeting is expected to send relief signals coursing through the veins of the markets, potentially boosting global equities and emerging-market assets.

Related: G20: world leaders urge Trump and Xi to reach a trade deal or risk global economy