UK jobs market 'loses its shine'; gold 'heading to $2,000' - as it happened
The latest UK labour market statistics show that fewer jobs are being created, but the unemployment rate hasn't been lower since 1974
- Economists fear jobs market is cooling
- Government: Labour market in good shape
- Employment growth slows to 31,000
- Total pay growth hits 4%
- Jobless rate falls back to just 3.8% - joint lowest since 1974
- Introduction: It's UK jobs day
2.56pm BST
Here's our news story on the UK jobs data, by Richard Partington:
The first cracks have begun to emerge in Britain's resilient labour market as job creation slowed over the summer months, in a sign of the stress facing the UK economy as Brexit looms.
Despite wage growth hitting its highest level in more than a decade, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said hiring had eased in the three months to July, as companies and public sector employers took on 31,000 more workers - below the forecasts of City economists.
The ONS said the number of job adverts posted by companies had been falling in consecutive months since earlier this year, ending a period of steady growth that began in 2012. Economists said the decline in vacancies was the fastest for more than eight years, pointing to a sharper easing in the jobs market than the figures for wage growth might suggest.
Howard Archer, the chief economic advisor to the EY Item club, said the slowdown in job creation suggested "weak economic activity, as well as heightened Brexit and domestic political uncertainties [are] having an increasingly dampening effect on the labour market".
Related: UK jobs creation slows as pay growth reaches 11-year high
2.54pm BST
Over in New York, Bank of England governor Mark Carney has predicted that a hard Brexit would hurt growth and drive inflation up (something he's predicted before, of course!).
Carney also warned that Brexit will have a "material impact@ on monetary conditions. But whatever happens, he doesn't expect to see negative interest rates used in the UK.
2.25pm BST
It's an end of an era for British fans of Marie Claire.
The women's magazine is to cease publication, at least in print, more than 30 years after hitting the shelves in the UK.
Related: Marie Claire UK to cease print publication after 31 years
I love magazines. I started buying Marie Claire when I was 15, I still buy magazines (article 1 below) no amount of Instagram scrolling can make up for listening to music while reading and absorbing. I get more inspired by mags. Please don't let anymore go! https://t.co/zY89XVAfXz pic.twitter.com/hEX4ozpPom
Marie Claire was pivotal in my teenage years. Sad to see it go. https://t.co/bX1LwaWXWS
Such sad news.
Marie Claire was the first ever 'grown up' magazine I bought - I graduated to it after Just 17 and felt *such* an adult.
Hope the team there are being well looked after. https://t.co/H8ITr7XzSs
2.16pm BST
Carmaker BMW has revealed that its preparations for the next Brexit deadline include a two-day shutdown at its Mini factory in Oxford.
"This would mean that we would most likely have to raise the prices of the products produced in the UK and shipped to other markets. The increase of price means an impact on the volume you sell, and would eventually lead to a reduction of produced cars in Oxford."
Related: BMW to close Oxford factory for two days as hard Brexit looms
2.07pm BST
The jump in wage growth in July was due to unexpectedly strong bonuses and a rise in public sector wages, points out the NIESR think tank.
But they also reckon wage growth may fizzle, as Brexit uncertainty rises.
"Today's labour market data were again strong but more timely signals show that a turning point may soon be reached as Brexit and global uncertainties increasingly weigh on hiring.
Whole-economy earnings growth has become more reliant on services sectors whose output continues to be in strong demand and on hiring and pay decisions in the public sector."
#LabourMarket data were again strong but a turning point could be on the horizon as #Brexit & global uncertainties increasingly weigh on hiring - Our latest #NIESRWAGE Tracker is out! Read it here https://t.co/CFn5wlw0yw
1.17pm BST
Back in the markets, the gold price has dropped to a one-month low today.
"We now expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000/oz and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two."
12.43pm BST
The jump in earnings in July could be very good news for pensioners.
Under the government's "triple lock" system, pensions will rise in line with wage increases, inflation, or 2.5% (whichever is higher).
Today's wage growth figures from ONS indicate a bumper rise in state pensions when final revised figures are published next month. The triple lock formula uses wage growth called KAC3 for 3 months May-July. Today's figure is 4% but subject to revision with next month's figures.
If that remains the same it will mean basic state pension (retired pre-April 2016) up from 129.20 a week to 134.35 and new SP (retired from April 2016) up from 168.60 to 175.35. Almost double CPI inflation at 2.1% (latest figure due next week).
Triple lock only guaranteed for this parliament which may end soon and we may have a different government before Xmas. But 'will your party keep triple lock' will be key question in any election if not announced before parliament dissolved.
12.00pm BST
Britain's labour market today is a vastly different place than in 1974, the last time the jobless rate was as low as 3.8%.
One example -- workers are MUCH less likely to go on strike than 45 years ago. In July this year, for example, just 12,000 days were lost to industrial action. Back in March 1974, 2.2 million were lost.
Working days lost to labour disputes hit a record low of 100,000 in the year to June 2019, according to today's revised @ONS data. pic.twitter.com/MoktJSUj9Q
11.00am BST
City economists don't share the government's optimistic view about today's UK jobs report.
Several are concerned that the labour market is cooling, with job creation slowing and vacancies down too.
The renewed fall in the unemployment rate distracts from an otherwise troubling labour market report. Employment was only 31K-0.1%-higher in the three months to July than in the previous three months, well below the 89K average increase seen since the Brexit vote in 2016....
Most surveys of employment intentions also have deteriorated over the summer and now point to negligible growth in employee numbers. Britain's so-called "jobs miracle" is starting to lose its shine.
The suspicion has to be that the labour market will falter further in the near term at least as companies worry about the very real possibility of a "no deal" Brexit at the end of October, an unsettled domestic political environment and a challenging global economy. August's further drop in vacancies fuels this suspicion. Much will obviously depends on what happens with Brexit on 31 October and how the economy reacts
We are also doubtful that earnings growth can make further gains - and it may well ease back from July's levels. With employment growth likely to slow and companies cautious over the outlook among major uncertainties, there is survey evidence that pay awards may be levelling off.
The continued decline in job creation and vacancies point to continued uncertainty as businesses wait and see how Brexit plays out before making firm hiring plans. The UK growth outlook beyond the current quarter remains unclear due both to alternative Brexit scenarios and to uncertainty around the global economic outlook."
10.28am BST
Britain's employment minister, Mims Davies, has welcomed the news that wages (+4%) are outpacing inflation (2%).
"Wages are consistently rising faster than inflation - now for over a year-and-a-half - meaning we're seeing a sustained boost in pay, supporting consumer confidence and giving a vital lift to millions of households who gain from greater financial security.
"This joint record employment rate and decades-low unemployment shows our labour market is booming. It's especially pleasing to see continued record female employment at 72.1%, signalling the great strides we've made in empowering women in the workplace, whatever their background.
"There is still more to do. But today's positive figures again show a thriving, diverse and resilient labour market to be proud of, and we are in great shape for Brexit on 31 October."
10.18am BST
Another worrying sign - the number of vacancies in the UK have fallen.
In the three months to August, there were aroumd 812,000 vacancies in the UK, 23,000 fewer than for the previous quarter (March to May 2019) and 33,000 fewer than for the previous year.
For a long time, businesses have been eager to expand their workforce despite difficult economic conditions. With the supply of available workers shrinking and uncertainty lingering, firms are now beginning to dial down their recruitment ambitions.
"Vacancies are likely to continue falling. It's becoming harder for business leaders to do any meaningful workforce planning, let alone find the talent that they need. High costs and an unclear view of future revenue have also led some to hold off on new hires.
10.03am BST
More women are in work than ever before, partly due to state pension changes that mean female workers must wait longer until they can retire.
The jobs report shows that the number of employed women increased by 60,000 on the quarter to reach 15.52 million, leaving the employment rate at a record high of 72.1%
9.53am BST
Good news: At just 3.8%, Britain's unemployment rate has fallen back to its joint-lowest level since 1974.
9.48am BST
Despite recent pay increases, the average UK worker is still earning less than a decade ago, once you account for inflation.
Today's jobs report shows that the average total pay packet is now 502 per week, compared to 525 in February 2008 (in real terms).
9.39am BST
Builders, bankers and other service sector workers enjoyed the biggest jump in pay over the last year.
Here's the details of the jump in total pay (wages plus bonuses) in the UK in the last quarter:
Total pay, which includes bonuses, increased by 4% on the year to reach 542. Total pay increased by a larger percentage (4.1%) in the private sector (to reach 541) than in the public sector (3.7%) even though public sector pay was higher (546).
Comparing total pay growth by sector shows that the average pay growth in the construction sector (6.2%) was the highest, followed by that in the finance and business services sector (5.3%) and the total services sector (4.2%). The lowest total pay growth (2.4%) was recorded in the manufacturing sector, 0.4 percentage points behind the growth in the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector.
9.35am BST
Breaking: As feared, job creation across the UK has slowed... but there's good news too -- wages are picking up.
The number of people in work rose by 31,000 in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics reports.
9.23am BST
Takeover news: Two of Britain's construction companies have announced plans to combine their house-building operations.
Bovis Homes has revived talks to buy Galliford Try's housing businesses after improving its potential bid to almost 1.1bn and adding a dollop of cash.
Related: Bovis makes 1.1bn bid for Galliford Try's housebuilding arm
9.16am BST
The pound is falling this morning, ahead of the latest UK unemployment report.
Related: Boris Johnson loses sixth vote in six days as election bid fails
8.46am BST
Overnight, the latest Chinese inflation data has given us plenty to ponder.
Pork prices are up by close to 50% pic.twitter.com/wVixzwJHlH
China's produce price index declined 0.8% in August amid falling demand for finished goods.
The fear is not just that it signals weakness in domestic and overseas demand, but that China is exporting deflation by cutting prices and making it even harder for central banks like the ECB to achieve their inflation goals. Could be a tough session in Europe.
8.31am BST
JD Sports are also opening a new warehouse in Belgium, to help them prepare for Brexit.
The Group always expected that, for operational purposes, a European warehouse would be required sometime after 2021 with the risks associated with Brexit bringing this decision forward.
8.29am BST
In the City, shares in JD Sports have jumped 5% to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, after it issued strong results this morning.
JD shrugged off the problems on the UK high street, posting a 6.6% jump in pre-tax profits for the last six months.
"Against a backdrop of widely reported retail challenges in the UK, it is extremely encouraging that JD has delivered like for like sales growth of more than 10% with an improved conversion reflecting consumers' increasingly positive reaction to our elevated multichannel proposition where a unique and constantly evolving sports and fashion premium brand offer is presented in a vibrant retail theatre with innovative digital technology.
JD Sports saw "an improved conversion reflecting consumers' increasingly positive reaction to our elevated multichannel proposition".
I think this means more customers bought stuff online and in shops.
8.06am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We know the UK economy is still growing, but is it still creating enough jobs?
Related: UK recession fears recede after surprise economic growth
Our expectation is that employment growth will remain positive again this month and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.9%. However, the key focus will be on wages.
Our expectation is that regular pay growth (i.e., excluding bonuses) will slip back a little this month, but that shouldn't detract too much from the bigger picture, which is that pay growth remains firm overall. That is certainly the message that the Bank of England is taking away from the moment.
i...Today is the start of the Frankfurt Motor Show where DIT will be showcasing the 's leadership in engineering and technological innovation"...
Here are 5 reasons to invest in the UK's automotive industry @iaamesse #iaaf19 #ReadytoTrade pic.twitter.com/01Chut2LJ1