Will London's post-Brexit future be as gloomy as predicted?

The feared large-scale exodus of firms and financiers does not seem to be under way

It is now well over three years since the UK voted, by a narrow but significant margin, to leave the EU. Yet we still have no idea what kind of economic relationship the UK will have with the 27 countries it leaves behind. (Some of the debate in London recalls in its insularity the apocryphal 1930s headline: "Fog in Channel: continent cut off.") Insofar as one can hazard a guess, the most likely outcome seems to be a more remote relationship than leave supporters talked about in the referendum campaign and than most commentators envisaged shortly after the vote.

But despite that change of direction, and the certain loss of the so-called passport, which would allow financial services to be sold freely across the EU, the feared large-scale exodus of firms and financiers from London does not seem to be under way. The French bakeries and German sausage shops are still doing a roaring trade. Why?

Related: Anxiety running high about London's future as a financial centre | Barry Eichengreen

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