US economy smashes forecasts with 266,000 new jobs in November - business live
America's non-farm payroll has surged by the most in 10 months, in a boost for the economy....and Donald Trump
- Latest: US non-farm payroll beats forecasts
- Job creation up, unemployment rate down
- NFP up by 266,000
Earlier:
4.48pm GMT
Finally, the UK's FTSE 100 has rompped higher by the close of trading.
The blue-chip index has closed 101 points higher tonight at 7,239, a gain of almost 1.5%.
GREAT JOBS REPORT!
Yes. Check out the trend in the number of U.S. jobs since 2000. Progress so steady since 2010. pic.twitter.com/rwkCVHlijK
4.42pm GMT
Today's strong US jobs report bodes well for growth, and stock prices, in 2020.
So argues Hugh Grieves, Fund Manager at Premier Miton Investors:
"Headline payrolls blew away expectations, rising by 266,000 and far exceeding the 180,000 increase expected. Even when adjusting for the positive impact of the end of the General Motors strike, this is a very strong figure indicating that the US job market, and wider economy, is in good health. The unemployment rate fell 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969.
The healthy labour market validates Chairman's Powell's view (shared by us) that the US economy is in decent shape and that interest rates can stay on hold for now, following the three "insurance cuts" earlier in the year. For President Trump, the strength of the US economy removes pressure on him to cut a quick trade deal with China so we may see more aggressive tweets from him in the near future.
2.41pm GMT
In other news... China isn't the only country facing higher pork prices because of its swine fever crisis.
Over in Germany, there's a 'schnitzel alert' as the cost of sausages and bacon across Europe rockets.
Related: Fork out to pork out: Germany's 'schnitzel alert' echoes around Europe
2.37pm GMT
Here's our US business editor Dominic Rushe on today's jobs report:
The US added 266,000 new jobs in November boosted by the return to work of striking auto workers.
Economists had expected job growth to 187,000 in November, up from 128,000 in October and boosted by the return to work of 48,000 GM workers following a 40-day strike.
Related: Record US jobs growth persisted in November with end of GM strike
2.35pm GMT
Wall Street has opened higher, as traders hail today's strong jobs report.
Forget Star Wars, this year's Christmas blockbuster is today's nonfarm payrolls report. A blowout jobs number sent equities higher along with the US dollar and Treasury yields as it shows the US economy is doing better than many corners of the market feared.
Should we worry about the Fed pivoting again? I don't think so and the market clearly thinks the same.
The Fed can stand this sort of hot reading for a while yet - jobs growth is averaging only 180k this year vs 223k last year.
2.28pm GMT
Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says today's non-farm payroll suggests that America's jobs market is robust.
It is shrugging off the trade war, a slowing global economy and a worldwide cooling in factory growth, he says:
"When corporate profits come under pressure, as they have this year, companies often respond by cutting jobs. So the critical question for investors in recent months has been whether the labour market would hold up.
"Today's very strong job gains, even when adjusted for the return of striking GM workers, are a sign that the labour market remains remarkably robust despite the headwinds from the ongoing manufacturing slowdown and trade related uncertainty.
2.26pm GMT
Ben Casselman of the New York Times has posted a very decent thread of charts, which explain today's US jobs report:
First off, the headline: Wow. +266k jobs, +41k net revisions, all coming after 9+ years of steady job growth. It's worth pausing to celebrate that. pic.twitter.com/K7GKUlYLwb
The end of the GM strike added close to 50k jobs in November (and subtracted the same number in October). The hiring and then firing of temporary Census workers adds further noise. Read through that, and we've had solid, steady gains in recent months. pic.twitter.com/igsbSv0nBA
The effect of the GM strike is very evident in the manufacturing data -- see the wild swing in October/November. Read through that, and the sector is basically stalled right now -- no longer adding jobs, but not slashing them either. pic.twitter.com/qLMUcvNygN
The manufacturing diffusion index -- which measures the share of sub-sectors adding/cutting jobs -- shows the toll of the trade war. It rebounded this month (thanks to the end of the GM strike), but 6-mo avg fell below 50 for first time since just after Trump took office. pic.twitter.com/MlXudcMs3l
Wage growth remains a puzzle. For all workers, hourly earnings up 3.1% from a year earlier -- not bad, but not rising (maybe even falling). But production & nonsupervisory wage growth still heading up (a slight slowdown in Nov. notwithstanding). pic.twitter.com/Nc9xcnAFnc
Significantly, growth in total aggregate earnings (hourly earnings * weekly hours * jobs) has stabilized and may even be picking back up. That's important to consumer spending (and thus the overall economy). pic.twitter.com/cnGyCa6oR9
2.21pm GMT
It's a tale of two jobs reports!
Canada's economy has suffered a drop in employment last month, with its non-farm payroll dropping by 71,000.
Meanwhile in Canada, there's surprisingly bad news: Largest job loss since 2009. https://t.co/yVqgkWfPWC via @business @economics pic.twitter.com/dfxEugyq0v
2.08pm GMT
November's strong jobs report suggests that America's economy is taking the trade war with Chine in its stride.
Of course, you could speculate as to whether job creation and wage growth would be even stronger without the burden of tariffs on Chinese goods....
"Today's numbers have surpassed expectations, showing the highest reading since August, as seasonal hiring picked up and 45,000 GM workers returned to work, following the longest auto industry strike in 50 years. The upbeat data reinforces the strength of both the labour market and consumer confidence, despite slowing global growth and continued trade uncertainty.
"However, without a comprehensive trade deal with China that covers the major structural issues surrounding intellectual property, theft, technology transfers and supply chains, it is difficult to envisage a long-term resurgence in consumer and business confidence. While U.S. stocks have surged in hopes of a near-term 'phase one' trade deal by year end, major issues remain unresolved, and there is concern that investor sentiment is getting frothy."
2.04pm GMT
Almost every sector of the US economy has created jobs in the last year - as you'd hope.
The only real laggard? Retail, where the rise in e-commerce has forced shops on main street and at malls to close.
Solid jobs report for November and... astonishing discrepancy with what ADP showed earlier (again). Anyway, non-cyclical sectors have contributed notably to recent job gains (over 30% only in November). #NFP pic.twitter.com/t7cMjMUxuy
1.52pm GMT
As suspected, the end of the General Motors strike did boost job creation last month:
Manufacturing added 54,000jobs- including 41,000 in motor vehicles & parts as GM workers return to work after the strike. https://t.co/vH1t0DcikG
Manufacturers added 54k jobs in November. Implies factory employment was roughly flat in both October and November once you take out the GM strike effect.
#NFP - 3m avg now 205k, highest since Jan
Blockbuster US jobs report. Larger than expected payrolls surge (266k vs 180k cons), even in manufacturing. AHE below expectations on MoM (+0.2% vs 0.3% cons) but a beat on YoY basis (+3.1% vs +3.0% consensus). https://t.co/BsVkobPOrk pic.twitter.com/0bsztO1FJi
Returning GM workers or not, that's a solid payroll report. +266k with +41k in revisions, mostly private (not gov't), manufacturing gains, solid wage trends, workweek steady, and labor force participation only down 0.1%. Bottom line: Labor market remains solid. #NFP pic.twitter.com/zEBWBjCeKQ
1.47pm GMT
Bloomberg's Matthew Boesler has spotted that wage growth for some US workers has hit the highest level since the financial crisis.
Live-blogging this jobs report on TLIV <GO>. First thing to catch my eye is this big upward revision to wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers: 3.76% in October and 3.65% in November mark the two highest prints of the expansion pic.twitter.com/En6kwLkDAL
1.45pm GMT
Stocks are rallying on the back of this strong US jobs report.
In London the FTSE 100 is up 78 points, or 1.1%, to 7215. All the European markets are higher too.
US futures rallying sharply - Opening Calls:#DOW 27825 +0.54%#SPX 3133 +0.48%#NASDAQ 8357 +0.57%#RUSSELL 1628 +0.77%#FANG 2866 +0.71%#IGOpeningCall pic.twitter.com/VBjhKM3cWm
1.38pm GMT
November's non-farm payroll is the strongest for 10 months. Good news for US workers, and particularly good news for Donald Trump.
Expect a tweet from @realdonaldtrump soon.....
1.35pm GMT
In another boost, October's non-farm payroll has been revised higher (as predicted). It shows that 156,000 new jobs were created, up from 128,000 originally.
September's NFP has also been revised up, to 193,000 from 180,000.
1.34pm GMT
Average hourly earnings across the US economy rose by 3.1% annually in November, today's report shows. During the month, wages rose by 0.2%.
1.32pm GMT
Newsflash: America's economy created a LOT more jobs than expected in November.
The non-farm payroll expanded by 266,000 last month, smashing forecasts of 186,000 new jobs -- and defying the doomsters who thought it might be weak.
1.27pm GMT
Economists will also be looking for some earnings growth in today's Non-Farm Payroll.
Last month's report showed 3.0% wage growth, with the jobless rate sticking at just 3.6%.
1.22pm GMT
The US president has just tweeted.....about the stock market rally of 2019.
Stock Markets Up Record Numbers. For this year alone, Dow up 18.65%, S&P up 24.36%, Nasdaq Composite up 29.17%. "It's the economy, stupid."
1.17pm GMT
It's nearly time for the final big economic news of the week, the US non-farm payroll for November.
Economists had predicted that it would show around 186,000 new jobs were created in America last month. That would be an improvement on October's 128,000 (which will probably be revised today.
#NFP Preview: Weak Labor Market May Outweigh GM-UAW Boost - https://t.co/OwntnFoe97 pic.twitter.com/PcooCMiYOu
12.54pm GMT
If you're just tuning in, here's Associated Press's take on this morning's weak German factory data:
October factory production dropped in Germany over the previous month in another sign the economy, Europe's largest, is struggling.
The Federal Statistical Office reported Friday that industrial production fell 1.7% in October over September when adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar factors. It was down 5.3% over October 2018.
12.39pm GMT
Si(C)bastien Desreumaux, CEO of Eddie Stobart, says the firm can now crack on with shifting goods around the UK in the big Christmas rush:
"The Proposed Transaction provides Eddie Stobart with the opportunity to move forward and look to deliver sustainable growth and profitability from a stable footing.
Our main priority and focus is now continuing to deliver the high levels of services expected by our customers as we move into the busy Christmas period."
12.34pm GMT
Breaking: Transport firm Eddie Stobart is being rescued from the brink of collapse.
Douglas Bay Capital (DBay), backed by the famous trucker's son William Stobart, will take control of Eddie Stobart's assets in a 75m bailout that should prevent the company going bankrupt before Christmas.
The deal represents a victory for William Stobart over his former brother-in-law, Andrew Tinkler, who had mounted a rival 80m bid to take over the firm with the backing of unnamed investors. The childhood friends have previously taken turns to run the company at various points in its recent history.
Related: Eddie Stobart wins reprieve as ex-owners bail out trucking firm
12.27pm GMT
Sporting debuts are tricky things, but Amazon appears to have scored with its move into football.
The company is reporting a surge in sign-ups for Prime this week, from fans keen to watch streamed Premier League games (including a pulsating Merseyside derby and a rather entertaining clash between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur).
Related: Premier League brings record number of sign-ups to Amazon Prime
12.07pm GMT
Here's our news story on the Halifax house price index:
Related: UK house prices rise despite uncertainty over Brexit and election
11.56am GMT
European stock markets are rallying thanks to China's decision to waive some tariffs on US farm goods.
The main indices are all higher, lifting the EU-wide Stoxx 600 index by 0.4% back towards the four-year highs seen in late November.
11.10am GMT
After a turbulent week, there are signs that relations between the US and China are improving.
"The goal (of this move) is to expand purchases and reassure the United States.....
"It should be interpreted as a positive signal. Despite the many political difficulties the two sides face, economic and trade cooperation and moves to stop the escalation of the trade war are in the interest of both parties."
10.16am GMT
Here's the latest house price data from Halifax, showing property prices rising at their fastest rate since the spring.
10.09am GMT
Economist Rupert Seggins points out that Halifax's data shows a higher rise in house prices than other indices.
Fair old jump in the growth rate in the Halifax house price index from 0.9%y/y in Oct to 2.1%y/y in Nov (guys, you're making me nervous again). Highest rate of growth of the major indices that have reported Nov figures. Latest readings range from -0.5%y/y (LSL) to 2.1%y/y (Hal). pic.twitter.com/SiTs4mQVcq
9.45am GMT
Housebuilder Berkeley Group has warned that political uncertainty is hurting the sector, after posting a sharp drop in profits.
It told shareholders this morning:
We remain alert to market risks with a General Election next week and the delay to the UK's proposed exit from the European Union prolonging the uncertain operating environment of the last three years.
This is damaging to our economy and London where fewer developers are prepared or able to accept the high operational risk of bringing forward new homes, with supply falling as a consequence.
9.17am GMT
Here's some snap reaction to the surprise rise in UK house prices last month:
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:
'It might be a little surprising to see the biggest monthly rise in house prices since February but the end of year can see a spike in sales as people aim to be in their new home for Christmas.
With average wages rising at more than twice the rate of consumer inflation, homes are becoming steadily more affordable in many parts of the country.
"Mortgages remain cheap and the relative lack of competition among buyers, even for good homes, is enticing more strategic buyers to pounce.
"Contributing to the pick up in the annual pace of growth is the London market, which has started to bubble away again.
"In the capital, a big jump in the number of sales going to best-and-final offers is going hand in hand with increasing footfall through front doors as buyers' appetites return.
8.54am GMT
Just in: UK house prices jumped 1% in November, the fastest monthly rise in seven months.
That's according to mortgage lender Halifax, and suggests that the clouds of political uncertainty may be lifting a little.
"Average house prices rebounded somewhat in November, with annual growth of 2.1% being driven by the biggest monthly rise since February, following two months of modest falls.
Prices are now up by 3,904 since the start of the year. While a degree of uncertainty remains evident, it's also clear that buyers and sellers are responding to factors such as improved mortgage affordability and the limited supply of available properties.
#UK Halifax house price index ...housing stock is still pants pic.twitter.com/OpXwltw2kW
8.15am GMT
The slump in German factory output in October is so bad that it could drag the wider economy back towards recession.
Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics says the plunge in production is "disastrous", and could mean that the economy shrinks in the final quarter of this year.
This is a disastrous industrial production number out of Germany. Production tumbled 1.7% m/m in October marking a new cyclical low, which is likely to push Q4 GDP trackers into negative territory. 1/n
The drop resulted primarily from sharp production cuts in the capital goods sector & in construction, while consumer and intermediate goods rose. The 1% gain for intermediates furthers the signals of bottoming out there as inventory adjustments look to have run their course. 2/n
On intermediates, the strong rise in chemical output was a positive. Within capital goods, the car sector, mechanical engineering and heavy transport equ. were weak spots, but electronics was positive. 3/n
And remember that Oct. industrial turnover was reported flat-ish & is less revision prone. So, the risks of a Q4 GDP contraction have risen after the weak retail & industrial reports, it is too early into the quarter to give up given the usual volatility in German data. 5/5
8.02am GMT
Here's Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, on the factory slump:
Today's data suggests that the German economy is continuing to flirt with stagnation and contraction in the final quarter of the year.
Capacity utilisation has dropped to its lowest level since early 2013. At the same time, the well-known supply-side constraints have also started to ease but not with the same magnitude as capacity utilisation. The lack of skilled employees and too little equipment as limiting factors have dropped to their 2017-levels, suggesting that the current slump in manufacturing is still a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors.
7.56am GMT
On an annual basis, Germany just suffered its worst drop in factory output since the financial crisis!
#Germany October industrial production is seen falling at its quickest annual pace since November 2009. Slump. pic.twitter.com/POpxBrbaCZ
Ouch! The Manufacturing #recession continues. #Germany's industrial production fell 5.3% YoY in October, the most in ten years! pic.twitter.com/r1WTI0ldou
7.42am GMT
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
"The economic weakness in industry remains.
However, the latest developments in new orders and business expectations indicate that a stabilising trend could emerge in the coming months."
Related: Opec considering huge oil production cuts to avoid market slump
European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7161 +0.33%#DAX 13129 +0.57%#CAC 5831 +0.51%#AEX 595 +0.63%#MIB 23101 +0.57%#IBEX 9293 +0.54%#STOXX 3670 +0.61%
The vote will pit William Stobart, the third son of the company's founder, against his childhood friend and former brother-in-law, Andrew Tinkler.
If their competing bids fall through, the company could collapse under the weight of a huge debt pile months before its 50th birthday.
Related: Eddie Stobart transport firm teeters on brink of collapse
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