US wage growth hits 17-month low as jobs number disappoints - as it happened

US non-farm payrolls have come in lower than expected at 145k for December, while annual wage growth missed forecasts at 2.9%

3.06pm GMT

2.53pm GMT

And in lighter news, the co-founder of digital bank Monzo has quit to pursue an alternative career: farming alpacas in Northumberland.

For the next few weeks and months I'm going to enjoy some time with Debbie at our wonderful farm in Northumberland.

You'll find me doing the feed rounds, hosting alpaca walk 'n' talks and driving my tractor (a Massey Ferguson 390T if you like that sort of thing - otherwise it's big and red!).

2.35pm GMT

Even poor job and wage growth figures couldn't hold back US stocks, resulting in all three major indices hitting fresh record highs at the open.

The Dow has hit 28,988.01 and we're still waiting for it to rise above 29,000 for the first time.

2.21pm GMT

The proof is in the chart: here you can see how US annual wage growth has held up above 3% between summer 2018 and November 2019.

2.03pm GMT

The FT () caught on to a notable statistic: this first time that US wage growth has dropped below 3% since July 2018.

US wage growth slips below 3% for first time since 2018 https://t.co/YJXyLNmEHh

1.56pm GMT

For those of you who saw the earlier tweet, it's now been revised. (I've deleted the previous version in the blog to avoid confusion...)

Whoops, got a tweet exactly backwards. Deleting it and tweeting a screenshot to show my shame.

Manufacturing lost 12k vs expectations of 5K gained. Thanks to @SchiffSpencer for the spot pic.twitter.com/C3MXvqALy5

1.52pm GMT

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, says the biggest question arising from the US December jobs figures is why wage growth is slowing:

Quick-take: Non-farm. Small miss on jobs, but.... the more interesting point being US Avg. Earnings which fell again.. if US economy @full employment why is salaries coming down? Net delta: Positive: gold, FI - Negative: $ - Equity- Neutral. pic.twitter.com/9wOvQcZXb0

1.50pm GMT

The disappointing jobs figures appear to have dimmed excitement about a potential new record for the Dow, which some have said could push above 29,000 for the first time today.

US stock futures have pared their gains:

1.45pm GMT

Sam Cooper, a vice president at Silicon Valley Bank, comments on the US non-farm payrolls report:

Today's underwhelming report will inject some life into relatively quiet markets as the headline jobs number narrowly missed expectations and wage growth also disappointed.

While participants appear to be focused on trade and geopolitical tensions, the disappointing data will be a concern for participants sitting on large dollar balances and could put the brakes on the momentum behind a strengthening dollar.

1.36pm GMT

More details on US jobs figures:

The unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.5%, which is in line with forecasts.

1.30pm GMT

US non-farm payrolls have come in at 145k for the month of December.

That compares to a Reuters poll forecasting 164k and November's tally, which has been revised down from 266k to 256k.

1.11pm GMT

Less than 30 minutes until US non-farm payrolls, which are forecast to come in around 164K, according to consensus figures from Refinitiv.

Remember last month a blowout jobs number sent equities higher along with the US dollar and Treasury yields, as it suggested the US economy was doing better than many corners of the market feared.

The headline print was miles ahead of expectations, coming in at 266k vs 180k expected. Unemployment at 3.5% was exceptionally strong, too. September was revised up 13k to 193k, while October was also revised higher by 28k to 156k. Private payrolls also very strong at 254k.

11.59am GMT

The FTSE 100 appears to be losing some of its shine and is just holding its head above water, up just 0.1%.

Some of the stocks dragging on the index include:

11.36am GMT

David Madden, a market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says US unemployment is expected to hold at a 50-year low of 3.5% for December:

The mood is muted this morning as traders await the US non-farm payrolls report at 1.30pm (UK time). The consensus estimate is that 164,000 jobs were added last month, which would be a decent number, but keep in mind that 266,000 jobs were added in November.

The unemployment rate is at a joint 50-year low of 3.5%, and it is tipped to hold steady. Average earnings are expected to remain at 3.1%.

11.01am GMT

Boeing shares are up 0.19% in premarket trading despite fury over internal messages released by the company that have raised questions about its development of the 737 Max.

That model was grounded in March following two fatal crashes that killed 346 people.

Chair @RepPeterDeFazio on Boeing 737 MAX news: "These newly-released emails are incredibly damning. They paint a deeply disturbing picture of the lengths Boeing was apparently willing to go to in order to evade scrutiny..." Read his full statement here aihttps://t.co/jQyRyTAhHX

10.16am GMT

Bank of England ratesetter Silvana Tenreyro has signalled that she would be prepared to cut interest rates soon if recent weakness in the British economy amid Brexit uncertainty persists.

Speaking at an event held by the Resolution Foundation in London, the member of the Bank's monetary policy committee says there are some reasons for optimism since the general election, but that she sees plenty of reasons for caution too, and that the risks are "largely to the downside.''

10.04am GMT

Oil prices have retreated to levels last seen before Christmas.

Following US strikes which killed Qassem Suleimani last week, Brent crude prices climbed above $70 for the first time in four months.

9.30am GMT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average could break above 29,000 for the first time today.

That's the forecast by Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. He says markets are "throwing caution to the wind" when it come to the US and Iran, though the tragic downing of the Ukrainian plane over Iran could end up being another "flashpoint."

US President Donald Trump has said the US- China trade deal is to be signed January 15. The direct benefits of more amicable relations between the US and China are plain to see in reports of rising iPhone sales in China and new record highs for the Apple share price.

Apple is leading the charge taking the Dow Jones above 29,000 for the first time.

9.02am GMT

An update has been issued on the winding up of the Woodford Equity Income Fund.

Its administrator Link Fund Solutions says BlackRock has raised around 1.9bn through the sale of assets, which represents around 63% of the value of the total fund.

This change to the timetable is required to ensure that investors retain exposure to the equity market for the entire period prior to the Fund being wound up as required by the regulations. This delay also allows a significant portion of the Fund's holdings in money market instruments to be liquidated in a way that minimises costs to the Fund.

8.34am GMT

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK says the de-escalation in the Middle East has allowed traders to re-focus on positive news around next week's signing of the US-China trade pact (at least the first phase of it...)

US employment report in focus, though US, Iran tensions still remain a worryhttps://t.co/fYHCqZUyR0 #NFP #forex @CMCMarkets

They say a week is a long time in politics, and this week it's also been true for financial markets, given some of the hyperbolic talk of World War Three that was doing the rounds early on Monday morning.

In the space of a few days we appear to have swung full circle; with investors seemingly convinced that the problems in the Middle East appear to have settled down, at least for the time being.

With this week's geopolitical risk subsiding as we head towards the weekend, investors now have the opportunity to focus on the signing of the signing of the new US, China phase one trade deal next week, as well as the health of the US economy today, and in particular the labour market which has continued to look resilient.

8.26am GMT

Grim news for fashion brands Superdry and Joules, which have plunged 22% and 33% respectively.

Both retailers issued profit warnings today, saying earnings would be below expectations after tough Christmas trading.

Julian Dunkerton's claim last October to have "saved Christmas" isn't looking too good this morning. Full-year profit will be at most 10m instead of the 30m or more that house brokers were predicting

8.17am GMT

Airlines are leading the UK markets after Ryanair upped its forecast, following a busier-than-expected Christmas and New Year travel period.

Ryanair shares are up 8.5% on the news which also lifted competitors to the top of the FTSE 100: EasyJet is up 5.6% while British Airways owner IAG is up 4.4%.

8.03am GMT

European stocks are on the up, having taken their cues from the geopolitical relief rally that sent US and Asian shares higher overnight:

7.55am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A lot has changed in a week, especially across global markets. Stocks have continued to rebound as fears around a fresh military conflict in the Middle East started to subside.