US and China sign Phase One trade deal, but experts are sceptical - as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2020-01-15 22:02 (#4XY48)

US and China have signed a preliminary trade agreement that will see more American farm products and machinery sold to Chinese customers

Latest: Phase One deal signed
Trump and Liu agree 'momentous deal'
China agrees to buy $200bn more from US
Phase Two talks start soon, but tariffs remain
Dow hits fresh record high

10.02pm GMT

Wall Street traders have donned their "Dow 29,000" hats, to mark today's rally.

9.18pm GMT

Boom! Wall Street has ended at a new all time closing high.

Relief that the Phase One trade deal with China is finally signed lifted stocks, despite the agreement's flaw.

7.21pm GMT

With the Phase One trade deal in the bag, Donald Trump is now hosting a lunch for the Chinese delegation and his own officials.

The president sound upbeat, saying that relations between the two sides are better than ever.

Hosting lunch for the US & China trade delegations, Pres Trump said relations between the 2countries "could not be better." He said "it's the best its ever been." Vice Premier Liu said the trade deal is good for both the US and China and "conducive to world peace and prosperity." pic.twitter.com/hmMdXM7hbl

7.02pm GMT

Here's my colleague Dominic Rushe on today's trade deal:

Donald Trump has signed the first phase of a new trade agreement with China after two years of tension between the two superpowers that have rattled economies around the world.

Trump said: "Today, we are taking a momentous step towards a future of fair and reciprocal trade. Together we are righting the wrong of the past."

7.00pm GMT

Anahita Thoms, Head of the Trade Practice at law firm Baker McKenzie in Germany, has also kicked the tires of the trade deal....and come away unimpressed.

She says that both sides will have concerns -- so we could see Phase Two, Three and Four trade deals in the years ahead.

"Ultimately, trade wars produce losers. The US has lost because of inevitably higher prices for consumers, whilst China has lost because overall the volume of its trade will fall. However, other countries such as Vietnam have benefitted in the short term by taking advantage of the changing trade opportunities, but in the long term, we will all lose because global growth is negatively impacted when the two biggest economies engage in a trade war for years."

"For now, Phase One doesn't strike a deal in a comprehensive way. In the beginning, the goal was about securing IP rights, easing the issues around forced technology transfer, market access and subsidies. In regards to Phase One, we are not there yet. Many, before President Trump, have tried to reach such a comprehensive deal, but it remains elusive for now."

6.44pm GMT

Nick Marro, analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit, also has concerns about the deal.

He's not convinced that China can meet its pledge of buying $200bn of extra goods from America each year. And even if it can, what happens in 2022 when the deal expires?

6.38pm GMT

Dr Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group, is also giving the phase one deal a muted reception.

She says America hasn't made progress on key issues, including subsidies for Chinese companies that tilt the playing field unfairly.

"The US China phase one deal is long-awaited good news for global trade, which took a hit from the tariff war in 2019 to the tune of $420 billion in lost revenue for exporters.

"But while it's a start, the deal fails to cover the significant issues that prompted the war in the first place. This includes China's preferential support of state-owned enterprises and technology transfer from American companies doing business there.

6.37pm GMT

Is today's deal as momentous as Donald Trump claimed today?

No, according to Tim Drayson, Head of Economics at Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM). He says the deal doesn't address key issues, will be hard for China to stick to, and still leaves trade barriers in place:

"The signing of the 'Phase One' trade deal marks the widely anticipated ceasefire in Trump's trade war with China. While this could hold through to November, it probably marks the peak in improving news on the US and China relationship.

First, the majority of the existing tariffs remain in place, with no timetable for their removal. Second, it will be difficult for China to meet its target for purchases of US goods.

6.32pm GMT

Details of the trade deal are now being released by the White House.

It includes a pledge by China to buy another $200bn of US goods over the next two years, and will come into effect in 30 days.

Trump and Liu He have signed the "Phase One" deal.

The WH finally released the 94-page agreement. Here's the key page where China promises to buy "no less than $200 bn" more over next 2 years

$76.7bn more in 2020
$123.3 bn in 2021
More ag, manufactured goods, energy, services pic.twitter.com/oytzbTrIvJ

6.10pm GMT

Donald Trump signals to some of the audience to gather round to see the signing.

They don't need asking twice, and soon the stage is packed.

6.07pm GMT

Finally, after more than 18 months of trade conflict, America and China are signing the preliminary trade deal.

Donald Trump sets the scene in the White House, saying "The world is watching today, it's a great honour to be here".

6.01pm GMT

Liu He is now issuing a serious warning to the US politicians and business leaders in the White House.

He says China and America must work closer together to tackle the world's problems. Co-operation is the only right choice, he insists. We must work together, with mutual respect.

Chinese state broadcasters are airing @realDonaldTrump's news conference and signing of the Phase One Trade Deal w/ China's Vice Premier Liu He live. pic.twitter.com/lNOa8xOmbr

5.57pm GMT

Simon Evenett,professor of economics at the University of St Gallen, smells a doll-sized rat....

The longer this #phaseone signing goes on, the more I'm getting that Russian doll feeling. The more you listen, the less there is. Lighthizer's remarks remarkably thin.

5.57pm GMT

Liu He now turns to his own remarks.

He insists that today's deal is "mutually beneficial", and complies with trade rules. We will honour it strictly, he promises.

$40bn of ag products we finally got a number

5.52pm GMT

Trump is now inviting vice-premier Liu He to address the room (after joking that Liu deserves a break after all his hard work and should catch a movie).

Liu produces a letter from his boss, president Xi Jinping! It's addressed to Donald Trump.

I believe that under our guidance, China-US relations will deliver more results and provide more benefits for our people

5.42pm GMT

Looking ahead, Donald Trump says the US and China will start talking about a Phase Two deal as this deal kicks in.

But in the meantime, the tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports will remain in place.

5.37pm GMT

Trump has finally returned to the details of the US-China trade talks.

He says Beijing has agreed to "greatly expand" the products it buys from America, and will buy "much more than $200bn" over the next two years.

5.30pm GMT

I'm not saying the president is rambling (well, he is...) but Bloomberg TV has now switched away from the trade deal signing ceremony.

Viewers probably got the point, after thirty minutes of Trump patting his officials, and himself, on the back.

5.28pm GMT

Trump now wants to know why investors will pay for other countries' debt, but not Americas.

The president says this is unfair -- who is crazy enough to accept a guaranteed loss?

5.25pm GMT

Some of America's top business leaders are in the room, and President Trump is naming them in turn.

Most of them are doing incredibly well, Trump says, and it's all thanks to him (I think this is a joke, but with this president you never know...)

5.20pm GMT

Trump spending the last 15 mins calling out people in the room + thanking them at this China trade deal signing ceremony. "You are my friend". "You are the biggest star". "These are great people". Must be over 20 people already.

5.19pm GMT

OK, Trump's veered waaaay away from the trade deal.

He's now banging on about changing regulations so that a firework display can be held at Mount Rushmore.

Four Chinese officials are silently standing to Trump's right on the stage as he indulges some political vendettas. "What these phony people, what these dirty cops put you through," he says to Devin Nunes.

Liu He is very politely standing by and listening to this almost completely irrelevant President Trump self praise session which is going on and on and on "Drew Ferguson! What a great friend!"

5.15pm GMT

Here's a clip of Donald Trump's opening comments on the trade deal, before he diverted into picking out allies in the audience and thanking them for their work.

#PhaseOne #tradedeal is a "momentous step, one that has never been taken before with #China toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade", says President Trump#trade #tariffs #tradewar #USChinaTradeDeal #USChina #USA pic.twitter.com/KLGcEIVnhx

5.10pm GMT

Donald Trump is now name-checking various members of his administration, including Mike Pompeo, and thanking them for their work.

5.03pm GMT

Trump turns to Robert Lighthizer, joking that his trade representative has been kept pretty busy in the last couple of years.

Was this deal easier or harder than you thought, Robert?, asks Trump innocently.

4.58pm GMT

Vice-president Mike Pence takes the podium.

"This is a good day for America, China and the world," says Pence, saying the deal helps to "put America first".

Mike Pence to Trump: "You said to our friends in China things have to change, and today, thanks to your leadership, the change begins."

4.55pm GMT

The White House band is playing, as Donald Trump and Liu He arrive. Everyone's on their feet.

The president speaks first.

4.50pm GMT

The room is now packed. And at the front, there are two desks, each bearing several documents - presumably ready to be signed by Trump and Liu.

4.41pm GMT

Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner have just arrived in the East Room, ready for the deal signing.

We're expecting Donald Trump to sign it for the US, with vice-premier Liu He representing China.

4.38pm GMT

Seats are filling up fast in the East Room of the White House, ready for the signing ceremony for the phase one trade deal.

4.35pm GMT

The Nasdaq index of tech stocks has also hit a new all-time high, over 9,298 points.

4.20pm GMT

The signing of the US-China trade deal is due to take place in around 10 minutes.

But despite the White House's best efforts, it's not the biggest story in Washington today.

4.11pm GMT

Wall Street's 'fear index' has dropped to its lowest level of the year:

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX TOUCHES LOWEST LEVEL SINCE DEC. 27, 2019; LAST DOWN UP 0.12 POINTS AT 12.27

4.10pm GMT

Boom! The Dow Jones industrial average has hit a new all-time high.

These optimistic noises from Larry Kudlow and Stephen Mnuchin may be cheering New York traders, encouraging them to drive stocks higher.

4.01pm GMT

A former White House cabinet secretary, Chris Lu, has warned that American consumers are paying the price for Donald Trump's trade wars.

Lu, who served under Barack Obama, points out that the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods arriving at US ports are a burden on consumers (as the importer pays them).

Even after the phase 1 "deal," @piie estimates that "nearly two-thirds of everything Americans buy from China will be tariffed, compared with less than 1% before Trump began his anti-China campaign"

Tariffs = Taxes https://t.co/Zb5XEZRQBw https://t.co/xD5gznL41V

Reminder as Trump signs phase 1 "deal":

"Steep 25% tariffs remain in place on much of what the U.S. buys from China, including components that American factories use to assemble finished products"

And who pays these tariffs? U.S. consumers and businesses https://t.co/79kvooAxg6

3.51pm GMT

China is hoping that the White House might roll back some tariffs in the coming months, if the Phase One trade deal holds up.

China and the US are set to sign the long-awaited phase one trade deal on Wednesday (US time); the deal, which involves a nine-chapter text, has fully taken into account the concerns and interests of both countries, and it is expected to bring the world's two largest economies back on track to stable and sound development, experts close to the deal told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The hard-won text involves nine chapters, touching sectors such as intellectual property rights (IPR), technology transfer, food and agricultural products, financial services, exchange rates and transparency, trade expansion as well as bilateral assessments and dispute settlement mechanisms.

3.27pm GMT

Larry Kudlow is now talking up the US-China trade deal, saying it will be good for the American economy, and the wider global economy.

Nothing like this has ever happened before. I don't care what side of the aisle you're on, this is a fantastic deal.

3.15pm GMT

So much for worrying about the deficit!

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, a top economic adviser to President Trump, has revealed that the White House plans to unveil a plan for additional tax cuts later in 2020.

"I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0. We're many months away - it'll come out something later during the campaign.

Tax Cuts 2.0 to help middle-class economic growth: That's still our goal."

"I had a tremendous meeting with my friend Kevin Brady, who will undoubtedly be the new chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

But we will unveil this perhaps sometimes later in the summer."

2.47pm GMT

Thee excitement around the US-China phase-one trade deal has already faded in markets, even before the ink is wet on the paper.

So says Silvia Dall'Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management.

The deal is now expected to bear only limited fruit: US officials suggested overnight that in the absence of a phase-two agreement, the US is unlikely to roll back further tariffs against China before the Presidential elections later this year. That is hardly surprising.

The deal seemed already fragile when it was announced in mid-December: details were scant (a full document will be provided only after the signing), some of the commitments (such as the $200bn step-up in Chinese purchases of US goods and services in the next two years) seemed unrealistic, and there was extreme vagueness concerning some crucial aspects such as intellectual property protections and technological transfers.

2.44pm GMT

Wall Street has opened calmly, as investors await today's Phase One trade deal signing.

The Dow has gained 60 points, or 0.2%, up to 28,999 points --- tantalising close to the 29k level hit for the first time last week.

1.37pm GMT

Mnuchin also told reporters that the White House is "indifferent" to whether the tariffs on US-China trade are reduced before, or after, November's election.

I'm not sure that America farmers share this relaxed approach, given the drop in soybean sales.

1.34pm GMT

Treasury secretary Mnuchin has also been challenged over the US deficit, which has jumped by over 11% according to new figures.

Is it safe to be borrowing so much, and does this show that Donald Trump's tax cuts aren't working?

There's no question that over time, we need to look at government spending issues.

That's the cause of the deficit, not tax cuts.

"At this point, the economy can handle these deficits. But there's no question over time we need to look at these government spending issues. We can't continue to increase government spending at the rate we are," says Treasury Secretary @stevenmnuchin1 on growing deficit. pic.twitter.com/5skhQMCWoF

1.22pm GMT

It's fair to say that global investors don't quite share Stephen Mnuchin's excitement about today's trade deal ceremony.

There's plenty of disappointment that the White House isn't cutting some of the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports since the trade war began in 2018 (one CIO dubbed these tariffs a 'roach motel' overnight)

"The phase 1 trade deal due to be signed later today will allow both Presidents Trump and Xi to claim a political victory after a bruising two-year trade war. When the details of the agreement are released however, we will be shown just how much, or (more likely) how little, structural reform China has committed to in return for just $200bn of increased imports (equal to only approximately half of China's 2018 bilateral trade deficit) and some tariff reduction.

"But whatever the details in this limited agreement, it does not resolve the underlying tensions, both political and economic, between the two countries and therefore investors should expect further tensions to be a feature of the future investing landscape."

1.10pm GMT

Newsflash: The Phase-One trade deal that America and China will sign today is an "enormous win".

This is an enormous win.

The average consumer will see a stronger economy in 2020 thanks to this deal....

12.44pm GMT

Just in: British Airways' owner IAG has filed an official complaint to the European Commission over the rescue of Flybe.

The move comes amid a growing backlash to the government's rescue of the ailing regional carrier from rival airlines, opposition politicians, and environmentalists.

IAG has written to the competition directorate of the EU saying that the rescue deal announced on Tuesday night by ministers, which could include a 100m loan and deferral of an outstanding tax bill, contravenes state aid rules.

IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, had earlier described the deal as "a blatant misuse of public funds".

12.39pm GMT

Tackling the climate emergency will need some tough decisions.

The UK government faces one in the North of England, where a new 165m coalmine in Cumbria is being planned.

12.12pm GMT

Our economics editor Larry Elliott is back from WEF's press conference on its Global Risks report, and says:

A year of extreme weather events and mounting evidence of global heating have catapulted the climate emergency to the top of the list of issues worrying the world's elite.

The World Economic Forum's annual risks report found that, for the first time in its 15-year history, the environment filled the top five places in the list of concerns likely to have a major impact over the next decade.

11.23am GMT

WEF have tweeted about their Risks Report (which is online here).

The Global Risks Report 2020 launches today and for the first time, the top spots are dominated by environmental concerns. After a year of extreme weather, people are more worried about the planet's future than ever. Read the full report here https://t.co/BFcO7Vsmay #risks20 pic.twitter.com/HWS3VW5LdS

These are the top risks facing the world in 2020 https://t.co/V8dPjfCPZi #risks20 @Zurich @MMC_Global pic.twitter.com/Ay2qklf66B

11.01am GMT

Top decision makers under the age of 40 have particularly strong concerns about climate, today's WEF Risks Report has found.

It says:

The report highlights how risks are seen by those born after 1980. They ranked environmental risks higher than other respondents, in the short- and long- terms.

Almost 90% of these respondents believe "extreme heat waves", "destruction of ecosystems" and "health impacted by pollution" will be aggravated in 2020; compared to 77%, 76% and 67% respectively for other generations. They also believe that the impact from environmental risks by 2030 will be more catastrophic and more likely.

We know what the challenge is, we need to get on and address it.

10.58am GMT

WEF's Risks Report has also predicted that 2020 will see rising political and social tensions, both within countries and between them.

So with the added risk of economic slowdown, it could be a turbulent year.

National politics in many countries has evidenced intense divisiveness and 'pushbacks', coupled with increasingly fractious international relations. These volatilities will likely persist, challenging cooperation on key priorities.

As economic confrontations between major powers grow, the global economy shows greater signs of a concerted slowdown.

Weak international agreements belie rising investor and popular pressure for action, against a backdrop of a multitude of natural catastrophes and indicators of longer-term disruptions. 2020 is a critical year for nations to accelerate progress towards major emissions reductions and boosting adaption investments.

Many ecosystems are in decline or at risk of distinction. Biodiversity loss poses irreversible consequences to societies, economies, and the health of the planet.

Emerging technology risks can erode social discourse, threaten economic stability, exacerbate geostrategic competition, and pressure national and international security. Getting a better handle on systemic risks will require a significant technology governance refresh at all levels.

Changing societal, environmental, demographic, and technological trends are straining health systems globally. While transformative technology, medicines, and insurance can improve healthcare, they also introduce new risks and trade-offs.

10.43am GMT

Britain's weak inflation is likely to spur the Bank of England to cut interest rates this month, says Garry Young of economic thinktank NIESR.

But he's not convinced they should....

Our @GarryYoung5 on #CPI figures: "The drop in 12-month CPI #inflation to 1.3%, plus weak GDP data, is likely to confirm the need for an immediate rate cut in the minds of a majority of MPC members. Whether this is really necessary is more debateable." Full analysis out shortly

10.36am GMT

The surprise fall in UK inflation to 1.3% has knocked the pound back below $1.30.

Traders are (understandably) concluding that an interest rate cut is more likely.

#GBPUSD moves lower as inflation data "disappoints" at 1.3% vs 1.5% expected. BoE #ratecut probability up to 60% after UK data miss.

Eurozone Nov trade surplus rises to EUR 20.7 bn y/y very little reaction from #EURUSD

Levels to watch: 1.1189 1.1167 above, 1.1085 1.1066 below pic.twitter.com/noaR6HSiHP

The Bank of England has been studiously steering interest rate expectations lower, but this morning's collapse in core inflation further increased the likelihood that rates will be cut to 0.5% when the MPC meets on 30^th January.

Core inflation is now back at the levels last seen in 2016."

10.35am GMT

Shops slashed women's clothing prices particularly sharply last month, the Office for National Statistics says:

The largest individual downward contributions came from women's casual jackets and cardigans, where prices fell between November and December 2019 but rose between the same two months in 2018.

There were also small individual downward contributions from formal trousers and formal skirts.

9.59am GMT

Britain's inflation rate has fallen to a three-year low, making an early interest rate cut increasingly likely.

The Consumer Prices Index fell to just 1.3% in December, down from 1.5% in November, to its lowest since November 2016. That's some way below the Bank of England's target of 2%.

9.53am GMT

Q: Is China engaging enough on these issues?

Brende replies that it is crucial that China is a part of the global fight against climate.

9.47am GMT

Birge Brende, president of the World Economic Forum, warns that policymakers only have 10 years to address the climate emergency - otherwise they'll just be "moving deckchairs on the Titanic".

But he's also optimistic, pointing out that the cost of solar energy is 10 times as cheap as a decade ago. A lot can happen in 10 years, if people react.

9.45am GMT

Here are some key charts from WEF's risks report, showing how environmental issues (coloured green) are now seen as the biggest threat to the global economy.

9.38am GMT

WEF are now taking questions.... firstly from my colleague Larry Elliott.

Q: Next week, lots of the CEOs who say they want to fight the climate emergency will be flying to Davos in their private jets - isn't there a major reality gap here?

There's nothing worse than an organisation recognising a risk and doing nothing about it, which is why we take it so seriously.

9.31am GMT

Biodiversity loss and a warming planet are linked, Giger adds -- one can lead to the other.

Businesses, consumers and regulators....need to prioritise investments that protect the planet.

9.29am GMT

Peter Giger, Zurich's group chief risk officer, says the loss of biodiversity is a very serious risk to the global economy.

We rely on biodiversity, from pollinating crops to curing diseases.

9.25am GMT

John Drzik, chairman of financial service firm Marsh & McLennan Insights, is now speaking at the Global Risks report press conference.

He says there is mounting pressure on the public sector to act on environmental risks, in the face of rising threats.

9.20am GMT

The World Economic Forum is outlining its Risks Report at a press conference in London now.

The first chapter is called "An Unsettled World" - focusing on the current fractured global situation. This is making it harder to tackle issues such as the climate emergency.

It is the super-risk. All the other risks that we need to contend with, there is this drag that we have to contend with - that we live in a more polarised, more competitive world.

A conservative estimate says we are losing 200 to 2,000 species per year -- this is an issue of critical importance.

9.04am GMT

NEWSFLASH: the World Economic Forum's new global risks report is out!

And for first time in its 15 year history, the top five global risks to the global economy over the next decade are all related to the environment.

8.57am GMT

Michael Saunders has also produced this chart, showing why he believes UK interest rates should be cut:

8.55am GMT

Newsflash: Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders has warned that the UK economy appears to be stagnating.

Speaking in Northern Ireland right now, Saunders says that is recent business surveys suggest there is 'little or no growth' in the British economy right now.

"It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy stance and possibly to cut rates further, in order to reduce risks of a sustained undershoot of the 2% inflation target.

With limited monetary policy space, risk management considerations favour a relatively prompt and aggressive response to downside risks at present."

#BOE #MPC - Dovish comments by #Saunders who was one of the 2 MPC members who voted for #interest rates to be cut from 0.75% to 0.50% at December meeting; looks certain to repeat vote for a 25bp cut on 30 January. #BankofEngland #interestrates https://t.co/ScUWv1kGVF

8.41am GMT

Unusually, the full text of the Phase One trade deal hasn't been released yet.

But Reuters has heard some details:

China has pledged to buy almost $80 billion of additional manufactured goods from the United States over the next two years as part of a trade war truce, according to a source, though some U.S. trade experts call it an unrealistic target.

Under the Phase 1 trade deal to be signed on Wednesday in Washington, China would also buy over $50 billion more in energy supplies and boost purchases of U.S. services by about $35 billion over the same period, the source, who was briefed on the deal, told Reuters late on Monday.

8.29am GMT

Donald Trump famously claimed that trade wars were good and easy to win.

We're still stuck with these tariffs which are a drag on growth in trade and manufacturing

These tariffs have now become a roach motel."

8.10am GMT

Asia-Pacific stocks have been hit by America's refusal to lift tariffs on Chinese goods.

Almost all the major indices are in the red, as traders face up to the prospect of more trade tensions this year.

Equity benchmark Sensex dropped nearly 200 points in opening session on Wednesday as global investor sentiment dampened after the US said its initial trade deal with China does not include tariff rollback.@BSEIndia @ashishchauhan pic.twitter.com/YuZrOAekfb

Global stocks tick lower ahead of US-China Phase 1 deal signing as tariffs stay until there is Phase 2 agreement. Investors' mood remains cautious as #China injects another $58bn to banking system. Bonds higher w/US10y yields at 1.80%. #Gold higher at 1551. #Bitcoin at $8.7k. pic.twitter.com/CgtLErj1Em

8.03am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

"These tariffs will stay in place until there is a Phase 2. If the president gets a Phase 2 in place quickly, he'll consider releasing tariffs as part of Phase 2."

Existing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. are likely to stay in place until after the November election https://t.co/zarr5OZYxq pic.twitter.com/HO6Mbm7gqh

The US - China trade deal is like watching a live show in the theatre of the absurd. The Trump administration revealed a detail that nobody expected just before the signature of the phase-one trade deal today: the tariff cuts will not take effect before the US election in November.

This means that the US tariffs will continue weighing on Chinese exports for almost an additional year, while the emerging market giant will certainly be asked to deliver on its promise to buy massive amounts of US farm goods and manufactured products immediately. The risk here is that the double-standard agreement could provide a weak basis for the future negotiations, impair the benefits, or even spoil the deal.

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