Eurozone consumer confidence slumps; oil remains volatile - as it happened
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as falling clothes and fuel prices pull inflation down
Earlier:
5.25pm BST
Time for a recap.
Global markets have recovered today, led by a rebound in the oil price from its historic slump earlier this week.
I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
Related: UK inflation falls to 1.5% as stay-away shoppers shun spring clothing
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4.52pm BST
After a better day for stocks, the main European indices have all closed higher tonight.
Every sector of the Stoxx 600 index gained ground. Energy and Technology stocks led the rally, followed by basic materials producers, telecoms operators, utilities and banks.
4.48pm BST
Donald Trump's threat to "shoot down" Iranian gunboats if they harass US ships drove the oil price's recovery today, says Connor Campbell of SpreadEx.
It would be nice for oil's push higher to come from a less troublesome catalyst.
Donald Trump's order for the navy to 'shoot and destroy' Iranian gunboats that 'harass' American ships cause some investors to return to the black stuff, lifting Brent Crude back towards $21 per barrel with a near 8% comeback. This after it had at one point fallen under $16 per barrel overnight.
4.27pm BST
Stocks are turning higher in late trading in London... pushing the FTSE 100 up by 132 points or 2.3% today.
Oil giants are leading the way, with BP and Royal Dutch Shell both up over 6% - following the rally in crude prices.
Impressive 7% rally in BP today minutes before the London close. #oil
4.25pm BST
Deutsche Bank have dug back through 150 years of data, and concluded that the oil price had never turned negative - before Monday's remarkable tumble in US crude prices.
Jim Reid and Nick Burns write:
In nominal terms, it's not a surprise to see that, over the 150 years for which we have data, there's never been a negative price print before. This is stunning as it basically says that a barrel of oil earlier this week was effectively cheaper than it was in 1870.
4.05pm BST
America's stockpiles of gasoline have hit a fresh record high, as the Covid-19 lockdown hammers demand.
New figures from the US Energy Information Administration also show that stockpiles of crude rose by 15 million barrels in the week to April 17, following a 19.2m jump the previous week.
US petroleum (crude, products & SPR) inventories now above 2bn barrels - (values in mb, source: EIA) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/9VqdnYeV4C
3.19pm BST
Consumer confidence across the eurozone has absolutely plummeted this month, amid the Covid-19 lockdown and rising deaths across the region.
The European Commission's gauge of morale, released this afternoon, slumped to -22.7 for April - down from -11.6 in March.
Eurozone consumer confidence drops to 3rd lowest reading recorded. The question is how much this matters for a consumer that is limited in his spending. All eyes should be on the May release. How consumers will respond to measures being gradually lifted is key. pic.twitter.com/OhRDiaXt7J
#Eurozone #consumer confidence suffered largest monthly drop on record in April according to "flash" European Commission reading. Nosedived to 11-year low of -22.7 in April from -11.6 in March
Having recorded its largest fall on record in March, the European Commission's consumer confidence measure for the eurozone doubled that decline in April. Safe to say that Europeans are spooked.
3.13pm BST
Markets are pushing higher in Europe now, as traders welcome the recovery in oil prices this afternoon.
In London the FTSE 100 is now up by 108 points, or almost 2% - back to 5748 points (recovering a healthy chunk of yesterday's falls).
2.38pm BST
Those upbeat comments from Steve Mnuchin may help stocks recover in New York.
The Dow Jones industrial average has jumped by 406 points, or 1.7%, at the start of trading - back to 23,424 points.
2.37pm BST
US Treasury secretary Stephen Mnuchin has now weighed in.
Speaking on Fox, Mnuchin predicted that oil would recover to $30 per barrel by August, and that "most if not all" of the US economy would be open by the summer.
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Trump administration is looking at different plans to support US oil prices; thinks oil will reach USD 30/bbl by August#OOTT
2.02pm BST
The White House is also talking up the prospects of the US economy re-opening in next couple of months, despite concerns the this could trigger a second wave of infections:
May could be "a transition month into an economic opening across the country," NEC Director Larry Kudlow says. https://t.co/2PFLtlQyoi pic.twitter.com/IWDEPH7Ltg
1.49pm BST
Oil prices are moving higher across the board - with US crude oil for June delivery up 13% at over $13 per barrel.
WTI catching a bid here:#Oil - WTI (JUN) 1311 +13.17%#Oil - WTI (JUL) 2137 +15.18%#Oil - Brent (JUN) 2083 +9.14%#Oil - Brent (JUL) 2472 +7.74%#Gasoline 6408 +14.47%#London Gas Oil 243 +5.78%#Oil #Brent #WTI #OOTT pic.twitter.com/7uRTdeatvO
I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
1.10pm BST
After two days of losses, the New York stock exchange is expected to rebound today.
The Dow Jones industrial average is up over 1% in pre-market trading, or 280 points - having lost around 1,000 points in the last two days.
Americans' fear of losing their jobs has surged to a 45-year high, per @Gallup. https://t.co/fZ86NNXF5v via @chrisjcondon @economics pic.twitter.com/s04Ku9nk2M
12.39pm BST
#Brent at 21-year low.
Massive implications beyond the oil industry.
Emerging markets with oil dependency face a sudden stop in export revenues, collapse in reserves and financial implications -debt default risk in many sectors- affect global banks.#OOTT pic.twitter.com/8eVuJsbzg3
12.09pm BST
Just in: Turkey's central bank has cut interest rates, as it responds to the Covid-19 crisis.
The benchmark interest rate has been lowered to 8.75%, from 9.75% -- twice as big a cut as the markets expected.
So 1% from Turkey, mkt was at 50bp
11.52am BST
Amid volatile trading in the oil market, Brent crude is now UP for the day -- back around $20 per barrel.
11.51am BST
Online fashion group Boohoo has seen a surge in casual clothes and pyjamas as Britons hunker down during the pandemic.
Carol Kane, the joint chief executive of Boohoo, says demand for "athleisure wear" such as hoodies, jogging pants and nightwear has all jumped in recent weeks, making up for a slump in sales of smarter outfits like dresses.
Related: Boohoo eyes struggling fashion brands after trading beats forecasts
11.35am BST
The Covid-19 lockdown risks increasing the existing economic divide within the eurozone.
A new report from ING economists Bert Colijn and Carsten Brzeski points out that the impact of the lockdown measures varies across Europe.
Covid-19 is often labelled as a symmetric shock hitting the eurozone economy. While this is correct regarding the nature of the shock, differences in the length and depth of the lockdown measures seem to have a rather asymmetric impact on the eurozone economy. Currently, a pattern seems to be emerging that the eurozone countries which experienced the sharpest impact on public (and economic) life will be the last countries exiting the lockdown measures.
Add to this significant differences across countries regarding the size of the fiscal reaction and there is a clear risk of an asymmetric recovery in the eurozone.
10.59am BST
With oil at its lowest levels this century, analysts are warning that prices will keep sliding unless there are significant output cuts soon.
Rystad Energy's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen says:
"Be prepared for more surprises in this broken oil market."
Why should Saudis/Russians agree to limit oil production, if the US is willing to bailout insolvent shale companies?
In a free market these would have been the first companies to shut down production.
Everyone is fighting for themselves and oil prices drop accordingly! pic.twitter.com/8jIxQZo73W
10.38am BST
Here's our news story on today's drop in inflation:
Related: UK inflation falls to 1.5% as stay-away shoppers shun spring clothing
10.34am BST
European stock markets are all up this morning, despite the oil price slump.
"The FTSE is up just under 1% this morning following comments from professors at both Oxford and Cambridge universities suggesting that the UK may have passed its coronavirus peak. The market is up despite further falls in oil prices, with Brent crude now below $18 per barrel - that's a big fall from 2014 when it was over $100 per barrel.
"UK inflation numbers came out this morning showing that prices have fallen since last month. The fall was largely blamed on a heavy discounting in the clothing market given the lack of demand while everyone stays at home. Clothing retailers are really suffering right now - Primark for example, has said it has basically sold nothing because it doesn't operate online and its stores are all closed."
10.09am BST
Posh tonic maker Fevertree appears to be coping well with the coronavirus pandemic.
Shares in Fevertree have jumped 13% this morning after it reported "strong" demand from customers in shops and supermarkets (the 'off-trade') in recent weeks.
With regards to trading, while the On-Trade sector is facing an extremely challenging period, we have seen strong sales in the Off-Trade in many of our markets both from the initial buying ahead of lockdown but also in recent weeks as at home consumption has remained robust.
10.01am BST
Laura Ashley is reopening its Texplan factory in Wales to make medical scrubs and cubicle curtains for the NHS.
"We've experience of making beautiful handmade curtains for Laura Ashley, but it has been a while since we made garments here in Wales. But we're an adaptable bunch so I'm confident we'll be able to turn our hand to sewing scrubs."
9.29am BST
Today's inflation report shows that air fares rose by 5.3% during March (based on flights departing on March 17).
By that stage, the Covid-19 pandemic was already hitting the sector - Donald Trump announced his ban on European Union flights to the US on March 12, and added the UK on the 14th.
All of the UK's biggest airlines and most big holiday companies are systematically breaking the law by denying timely refunds to customers for travel cancelled during the pandemic, researchers have found.
Consumer groups have warned that the sector risks permanently losing public confidence in booking travel, with Which? finding 20 of the UK's largest operators are illegally withholding refunds that should be paid within 14 days.
Related: All big UK airlines and travel firms denying refunds, Which? finds
9.02am BST
Although stock markets are up this morning, oil is still sharply down.
Brent crude is changing hands for $17.62 per barrel right now, down 9% today, having hit 21-year lows overnight.
I'd say oil markets are telling us how bad things are right now, while equity markets tell us how good or bad investors hope/fear things will be next year.
8.35am BST
The new governor of the Bank of England has warned against lifting the UK's Covid-19 restrictions too early.
I think we have to be careful when thinking about human psychology
If we had a lifting and then [lockdown] came back again, I think that would damage people's confidence very severely.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to the Daily Mail about lockdown and bank lending https://t.co/p320ZFVUUH via @MailOnline
8.11am BST
After falling around 3% yesterday, European stock markets have risen slightly at the start of trading.
The FTSE 100 has gained 38 points, or 0.7%, to 5678 points.
7.54am BST
The drop in inflation in March is just the start. Several economists are predicting that the cost of living will keep easing - as people remain confined at home.
Equals Group chief economist Jeremy Thomson-Cook says there simply won't be enough demand to drive prices up.
"UK inflation stayed steady at 1.5% in March but the wider picture around prices shows that we will not be talking about high inflation for some time. A recession like the UK is currently enduring - we will wait on the data to confirm - naturally will see lower inflation through the destruction of a demand side to the economy whilst movements in oil markets of late show just what can happen to prices when demand dries up.
You cannot have inflation without demand and if we are correct that demand rebounds slower than it fell - a Nike tick-shaped rebound - then the impulse into inflation should be low although a weak pound does remain a risk."
UK inflation 1.5% (1.7%) in March. Two caveats: 1st the basket used for index is unrepresentative of current consumption - so "lived" inflation different (higher for most) than stats measure. 2nd, UK inflation likely falls <1% in coming months with ai demand & energy prices pic.twitter.com/wJEDbZUZlB
We suspect a larger fall in CPI inflation, from 1.5% to 0.9% is in store for April as Ofgem lowers the cap on utility bills to reflect past falls in wholesale energy price.
"Even before the recent capitulation, the price of oil was on the slide in March and this dragged inflation down slightly from February's 1.7% to 1.5%. Oil prices have a massive impact on the UK's inflation rate and with prices at the pump and home energy costs getting cheaper we'd expect this trend to continue for the next couple of months.
"What's more, with retailers having to shut their doors we're seeing more and more offer discounts to shoppers to move their buying online. In particular clothing and department stores have been hit, as people don't need new outfits to sit on their sofa all day and are delaying large purchases amid worries about where the economy is headed. One area of slight upward pressure was from alcohol and tobacco, partly because we're drinking at home more and partly because tobacco duty increased in March following the Budget.
7.42am BST
Alcohol and tobacco prices rose in March -- partly because the duty on tobacco was raised in Rishi Sunak's budget last month.
7.38am BST
Petrol prices fell by 5.1 pence per litre between February and March 2020, the inflation report shows.
The ONS explains:
Global prices for crude oil have fallen sharply in response to reduced global demand during the COVID-19 pandemic and the failure of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) to agree to cut supply in early March 2020.
Consumer demand for motor fuels has likely also reduced in light of measures taken to curb the spread of COVID-19, including increased working from home and broader travel restrictions.
7.31am BST
The cost of a "wide range of women's, men's and children's clothing items" fell in March, pulling inflation down.
The ONS suspects people began shunning the shops to avoid catching coronavirus - or because they were focused on stockpiling essential items instead.
Sales patterns this year are likely to have been influenced by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Although prices were collected around 17 March, before the formal government lockdown was introduced on 23 March, consumer behaviours and retailers' expectations of that behaviour might have changed as a result of social distancing and other precautions.
A number of factors might have contributed to the change, including less browsing in physical stores, people spending more time at home where they might have been less interested in clothing, and a shift in spending patterns towards other necessities such as food and cleaning products.
7.29am BST
Some early news: Inflation across the UK fell in March, as the government's Covid-19 lockdown hit demand for some goods.
Consumer prices rose by 1.5% per year last month, the Office for National Statistics reports. That's down from 1.7% in February, and the lowest since December.
7.19am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The oil price is continuing to slide today, as producers run out of place to store crude as demand plummets.
June $BRENT Crude $OIL is tumblin. pic.twitter.com/xsHHpeshmy
In a joint closing statement the ministers said that they should "continue holding such consultations", but it remains unclear if any country has the ability or the inclination to cut further than what is expected to come on May 1.
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