Let's keep the economic impact of coronavirus in perspective | Letter

The second world war did not lead to recession and unemployment, thanks to the Keynesian policies of the Labour government, writes Dennis Leech

The Bank of England forecasts a fall in GDP of 30% due to the pandemic, and says it is the worst recession in 300 years (Business live, 7 May). We need to get this into perspective. There have been at least two other episodes in recent history when there was a massive supply shock of comparable severity: the two world wars necessitated structural changes that dwarf what the Bank is forecasting.

The cost of the war effort - men, uniform plus weapons production - was counted as part of GDP although it contributed nothing directly to living standards. This highlights a limitation of GDP: it only measures output, not welfare. Today's equivalent of fighting the enemy is the lockdown to stop the virus spreading, but this is not counted as production so represents a direct loss from GDP. A meaningful comparison means adjusting wartime output.