The British government is about to sleepwalk into an unemployment crisis | Larry Elliott

Rishi Sunak's furlough scheme was a start. But unless more action is taken to protect jobs, a grim winter awaits

Crunch time for the economy has arrived. Lockdown restrictions are being relaxed across the UK, with England easing the quickest. From 4 July, hotels in Cornwall will be open and so will London pubs.

If things go according to plan, the cash that some households have been accumulating for the past three months will be unleashed in a wave of spending that will rescue bars, shops and restaurants from looming bankruptcy. The furlough scheme, introduced by chancellor Rishi Sunak at the start of the crisis will no longer be necessary. The UK will have a tough 2020 but disaster will be averted.

Related: Labour hits out at Rishi Sunak's approach to ending wage subsidies

Related: This generation of Tories is complacent about the blight of unemployment | Rafael Behr