Budget 2015: Osborne introduces tax-free savings and Help-to-Buy ISAs - live updates

Full coverage of the chancellor's final budget before the general election

• Tax-free allowance to rise
• Inheritance tax review announced
• Osborne: Rich will pay the most
• Plan to cut spending to 1930s levels dropped
• Budget speech <- highlights start here
• Rolling at-a-glance guide to the budget

3.16pm GMT

OBR chief Robert Chote begins today's briefing by saying the budget looks 'pretty neutral', meaning the chancellor has given with one hand, and taken with the other.

Chote also confirms that low inflation (and cheap oil) should stimulate the economy:

3.11pm GMT

Right, it's time for the Office for Budget Responsibility to give its verdict on the chancellor's efforts.

Our colleague Katie Allen is tweeting from the briefing.

You've heard Osborne's pre-election Budget now Office for Budget Responsibility tells us how the future might look pic.twitter.com/bDDdlQ0DVJ

3.11pm GMT

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has just been commenting on the budget on the BBC. Here are the key points he made.

It would be much nicer if we were told where they were going to come from. The electorate could have a much clearer sense of what was going to happen ...

It is a terrible shame we are going into the election with these big numbers being bandied about, on both sides, without any detail about actually how that is going to be achieved. The chancellor has been talking about 12bn of welfare cuts for probably two years now. We don't know anything more about where they are going to come from.

The OBR very pointedly referred to it [the big cuts in 2016-17 and 2017-18, followed by the increase] as a rollercoaster, the very first page of that document refers to that as rollercoaster for public service spending. It is clearly easier and better if you do this in a more smooth way.

3.09pm GMT

In the City, the FTSE 100 has jumped by 100 points to 6938, not too far from its record closing high.

Shares in housebuilders, energy firms, investment groups and drinks makers have all gained ground on the back of Osborne's various announcements.

3.04pm GMT

The OBR also predicts that monetary policy will remain "very loose", with the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged until mid-2016.

Attention, mortgage holders - here's new OBR forecasts for BoE base rate. Lower for longer #Budget2015 pic.twitter.com/Sdhg5cngtb

3.03pm GMT

The OBR has cut its forecast for house price growth over the next two years, but warns that getting on the housing ladder will then get even harder:

House price growth is stronger in the second half of the forecast reflecting stronger growth of real income per household. House prices rise faster than earnings for most of the forecast period thanks to the lagged effect of past falls in mortgage interest rates and the fact that household income growth has historically had a more than one-for-one impact on house prices.

2.52pm GMT

It's not been a great budget for the bookmakers.

Ladbrokes is nursing the biggest single loss for a budget bingo wager in its history, having offered 10/1 that Osborne would make a "two kitchens" joke.

2.47pm GMT

The Office for Budget Responsibility has to make long-term forecasts about the economy, taking into account many factors. In the past it has made allowance for David Cameron's declared intention to get net migration below 100,000. But, in the light of the government's abject failure to achieve this, the OBR has decided to give up taking the target seriously.

Or, to put it another way, the OBR has raised its growth forecast partly because it is reconciled to the Conservatives failing on immigration.

Net migration in the year to September 2014 rose to 298,000, up from 210,000 in the year to September 2013. Our previous forecasts have been underpinned by the assumption in the ONS low migration population projections that net migration will move towards 105,000 a year by mid-2019. A reduction over time seems consistent with the international environment and with the Government's declared efforts to reduce it. But in light of recent evidence, it no longer seems central to assume it will decline so steeply. So we now assume that net migration flows will tend towards 165,000 in the long term, consistent with the ONS principal population projections. Relative to our December forecast, this raises potential output growth by 0.5 per cent over the forecast period via 16+ population growth.

2.41pm GMT

Another chart showing how government spending is now forecast to rebound by the end of the next parliament:

The big #budget2015 fiscal reversal? Departmental spending now to rise significantly in 2019-20 in nominal terms: pic.twitter.com/jWCfIJisIn

2.37pm GMT

Here's the Treasury's fact sheet on help-to-buy Isas

The government will provide 50 for every 200 someone saves, up to a maximum of government payment of 3,000. People will only be able to use this for a first home, and one that they will live in.

Now an ISA for first time house buyers - straightforward bribes to subsidise existing house prices #budget15

2.34pm GMT

Thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility, we can now see how George Osborne has sunk Labour's attack line that spending will return to 1930s levels in the next parliament.

In the OBR's words:

Government's spending policy assumptions is a sharp acceleration in the pace of implied real cuts to day-to-day spending on public services and administration in 2016-17 and 2017-18, followed by a sharp turnaround in 2019-20.

The projected budget surplus in 2019-20 is 16.1 billion lower than in our December forecast. The Government now assumes that total spending will grow in line with nominal GDP rather than whole economy inflation in that year. Combined with a lower forecast for annually managed expenditure, that means that implied public services spending in 2019- 20 has been revised up by 28.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) since December.

At 36%... 19/20 spending/GDP is 0.1% above 99/2000 and 0.2% above 1958/58 ...1930s labour fox shot. Just. pic.twitter.com/QODyeINkZT

2.17pm GMT

The BBC's Robert Peston spotted this.

Those who oppose new freedom to sell annuities will be alarmed that it raises more than 1/2bn a year in tax - big sales to come #budget2015

2.16pm GMT

This was a very busy budget, with lot of things in it that may or may not be politically effective, says former chancellor Lord Lawson on Sky News now.

But the important issue is how the economy is faring.

2.12pm GMT

The Office for Budget Responsibility's new, independent assessment of the UK economy is now online:

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2015

2.10pm GMT

We can now see the impact of all Osborne's tax and benefit changes since 2010 on the rich, the poor, and everyone else:

2.01pm GMT

You can see the full budget, and Osborne's speech, on the Treasury website:

1.57pm GMT

Osborne's changes to the tax allowances will cost over 1bn next year alone.

And the new Help to Buy ISAs will cost over 800m annually by the end of the next parliament:

Reducing tax on savings income costs 1bn in 2016-17 - but falls thereafter according to Treasury #budget2015: pic.twitter.com/DVzJIgSDjx

1.54pm GMT

Labour is sticking to its plan to cut tuition fees to 6,000 per year, Miliband says, and make Nick Clegg answer for his broken promises on the door step.

(Labour had planned to fund the commitment by restricting pension tax relief, an idea which Osborne has now lifted himself)

1.53pm GMT

Miliband says there is a "glaring omission" in today's budget speech - the National Health Service.

And that's because the government is planning "massive" cuts in the next five years to pay for the changes announced today.

Miliband: they are planning massive cuts in the next parliament, faster pace than seen in last five years. #Budget2015

1.49pm GMT

Shares in investment groups have climbed after Osborne's new savings proposals, with St James Place and Hargreaves Lansdown are both up 3.6%.
Meanwhile Johnston Press has risen 2.5% on news of a consultation on local newspaper taxation.
And the cut in alcohol duty has helped drinks group Diageo climb 25p to 19.35.

1.47pm GMT

Miliband: economy is too unbalanced, too insecure. Productivity gap too high. The rebalancing Osborne promised hasn't happened. #Budget2015

1.46pm GMT

The chancellor shouldn't be crowing about halving the deficit in this parliament [from 10% to 5% of GDP], says Ed Miliband - he's failed in his aim to eliminate it.

1.44pm GMT

Those jibes about Miliband's two kitchens, and his mother's use of inheritance tax, may have stung.

The Labour leader says he won't take lessons from "Trust Fund chancellor and the Bullingdon prime minister".

1.42pm GMT

Snap political verdict: That was flash. We'll need to look at the details to see what they amount to, but Help to Buy ISAs, with the government putting in 1 for every 4 you save, is clearly going to go down well with potential first-time buyers, and the new personal savings allowance sounds like a generous bung for the Daily Telegraph classes. On the macro picture, what was most significant was George Osborne's decision to scale back the autumn statement's "Road to Wigan Pier" austerity forecast. His raid on pension tax relief may limit Labour's options, and letting Manchester keep its extra business rates revenue was a clever excursion into Labour territory. But we need to look at the detail. We'll get going on that now. AS

1.41pm GMT

Ed Miliband is now responding to George Osborne.

He says the budget "won't be believed" by the public, and accuses the chancellor of inventing a new measure of living standards.

1.39pm GMT

Osborne may or not be a good chancellor (opinions vary), but he looks like a fortunate one.

As expected, the recent drop in inflation has helped to push down Britain's borrowing requirements (by cutting the cost of index-linked welfare and debt repayments).
And that means Britain won't be taking The Road to Wigan Pier after all.

GDP forecasts from OBR more gloomy than those from the Bank of England, not as favourable as expected. #Budget2015 pic.twitter.com/yUpKmJTXby

More generous than expected support package of 1.3bn for North Sea oil/gas production in face of falling oil prices #Budget2015

Osborne plays Agincourt card with 1m memorial to mark victory v force of France and "renegade Scottish nationalists" #Budget2015 #1415

1.34pm GMT

Osborne says this will effectively create tax-free banking fro the entire population.

1.30pm GMT

Osborne says people will be able to cash in their annuities without paying punitive tax rates.

1.28pm GMT

Osborne says he cut beer duty last year for the second year in a row. The industry said that created 16,000 jobs.

1.27pm GMT

The personal tax-free allowance will rise to 10,800 next year - and then to 11,000 the year after #Budget15 pic.twitter.com/AP7NGgbGrS

1.25pm GMT

Shares in oil companies had been moving higher in recent days on hopes of tax breaks in the Budget, and they have duly arrived, giving the sector another lift.
With 1.3bn of support for North Sea production announced, Tullow Oil is up more than 1%, Premier Oil is 1.5% better and Enquest has added 3.6%.

Meanwhile Royal Dutch Shell is 1.8% higher, Nick Fletcher reports.

1.24pm GMT

Does the chancellor decide the policies and then think up the jokes, or the other way round?

Osborne appears to have decided on support for the internet of things to generate a two-kitchens gag about ed miliband #budget2015

1.23pm GMT

Osborne says people want their taxes to be simple to pay.

1.21pm GMT

Corporation tax will be cut to 20% in April, he says.

Labour wants to put this up. It would be the first increase since 1973. That would be a job destroying measure, he says.

1.19pm GMT

Osborne says he wants to expand ultra-fast broadband to almost all the homes in the country.

1.19pm GMT

And there will be support for the internet of things.

So - to use a completely ridiculous example - were someone to have two kitchens they would be able to control both fridges from the same phone.

1.18pm GMT

Osborne says TV and film tax credits are to be made more generous. There will also be support for the video games industry, and a new tax credit for orchestras.

1.17pm GMT

Osborne says the falling oil prices pose a threat to the North Sea oil industry.

Bold and immediate measures are needed, he says.

1.14pm GMT

Osborne says a comprehensive transport strategy will be funded for the north.

A new city deal will be struck with the combined West Yorkshire authority.

1.13pm GMT

In the City, bank shares have come off their best levels after the chancellor announced measures to raise 5.3bn from the sector.

Market reporter Nick Fletcher explains:

The rate of the bank levy will be raised, and banks will be stopped from deducting PPI compensation payments from corporation tax.

Lloyds Banking Group, weak already on the prospect of the government selling another 9bn stake, is down 0.6% while Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland have slipped back from earlier highs.

1.12pm GMT

Naked politics as Osborne announces review of "deeds of variation", as used by opposition leader's mother...

1.11pm GMT

Osborne says new funding will be available to address housing shortages in London.

1.11pm GMT

Osborne announces measures to help the services, including funds for Battle of Britain memorials.

Blood bike charities do a great job. They wil be exempt from VAT.

1.08pm GMT

I calculate that Osborne has reduced spending-cuts gap between Labour and Tories from 50bn to between 20bn and 30bn #Budget2015

1.07pm GMT

1.06pm GMT

Osborne announces various measures on tax avoidance and tax evasion.

1.03pm GMT

Osborne says he has looked at Labour's plan to cut the annual pension relief allowance. But this would penalise middle income people, including nurses, and help students going into well-paid jobs. So he rejects the idea, he says.

1.02pm GMT

Osborne says share of income tax paid by top 1% is projected to rise. That means they're getting a bigger share of the income, though.

1.01pm GMT

Opportunity has increased, Osborne says. More people from disadvantaged backgrounds are going to university.

Extra funding for child mental health services is included in the budget.

1.01pm GMT

Here are the full borrowing forecasts, compared to the previous ones, showing that Osborne has dropped his aim for a 23bn surplus by 2019-20.

12.59pm GMT

Osborne says he needs to commit to the fiscal plans set out in this budget to keep national debt falling.

After all the hard work of the last five years, it would be a tragedy to reverse this.

12.57pm GMT

Osborne says Britain is out of the red, into the black, and paying its way in the world.

12.56pm GMT

This counters the Labour claim he would cut spending to 1930s levels.

12.55pm GMT

Osborne says for much of the last five years the national debt has been rising.

But he will be able to meet his original debt target, he says.

12.53pm GMT

GO says 13bn from Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, and9bn from Lloyds will pay off national debt #budget

12.51pm GMT

Osborne turns to debt.

Welfare payments are 3bn lower than forecast at the time of the autumn statement, he says.

12.48pm GMT

Osborne confirms that a new pound coin will be created. The 12-sided coin will include emblems for all four UK nations.

12.48pm GMT

Osborne says he has repaid debt issued by figures like Gladstone and Goschen.

The debt created by Gordon Brown will take longer to pay off, he says.

12.47pm GMT

Osborne says inflation has also fallen.

12.47pm GMT

Those growth forecasts aren't quite as positive as some economists had expected. GDP will be a little higher this year and next, but a little lower in 2017.

Here's the details:

GDP growth forecast up for 2015 and 2016 - but it's down for 2017 #budget2015 pic.twitter.com/JQHaovlKAf

12.46pm GMT

Osborne says he can afford real increases in the national minimum wage.

By the end of the decade it will be more than 8.

12.45pm GMT

Osborne says living standards are up since the election.

GDP per capita is up 5%, he says.

12.44pm GMT

Osborne says most jobs being created are skilled, and full-time. And the new jobs are not just in the south. Yorkshire has created more jobs than France.

12.43pm GMT

Osborne turns to jobs.

The claimant count is at its lowest rate since 1975.

12.41pm GMT

Osborne defends his decision to apply to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

12.39pm GMT

Osborne says oil prices are falling.

The OBR has revised down the growth of the world economy, the growth of world trade and growth in the Eurozone.

12.39pm GMT

Much interest in the chancellor's claim that living standards have risen over this parliament:

I'll be curious to see which living standards measure Osborne is referring to when claiming higher than in 2010 #Budget2015

12.38pm GMT

Osborne says the OBR has confirmed Britain grew by 2.6% last year.

Some people want him to follow the French approach. But he will follow the secretary general of the OECD who said Britain had a long-term economic plan and should stick to it.

12.37pm GMT

Lindsay Hoyle, the deputy speaker, appeals for quiet. He is struggling to hear Osborne, he says.

(He hasn't missed much so far.)

12.37pm GMT

Osborne says, again, he is choosing the future.

He wants the UK to be the most prosperous economy in the world. He chooses business and jobs, and the whole nation. We choose responsibility, he says. We choose aspiration, we choose families.

12.35pm GMT

12.35pm GMT

Osborne says the critical choice is whether to return to the "chaos" of the past, or to carry on recovering the economy.

Any extra money will go on addressing the deficit.

12.34pm GMT

Osborne says he reports on a Britain that is growing, creating jobs and paying its ways.

We took difficult decisions ... and it worked. Britain is walking tall again.

12.32pm GMT

George Osborne is about to deliver his budget statement.

12.31pm GMT

This is almost certainly the last time Miliband will respond to a budget. PM or oot.

12.29pm GMT

#PMQS Chancellor Osborne's family in gallery for budget. Wife and father in law , plus mum, dad and Uncle Ken Clarke all in the same row

12.25pm GMT

Labour's Ian Lavery says many families in the north east are being hammered. Life expectancy is 10 years lower than in the rest of the country. Cameron should apologise.

Cameron says the claimant count has fallen in Lavery's constituency by 28% over the last year. Youth unemployment has fallen even more.

12.23pm GMT

John Howell, a Conservative, praises the government's long-term economic plan.

Cameron says the UK has seen the largest rise in employment of any G7 country in the last year. More young people have got into work in the UK in the last year than in the rest of the EU put together.

12.21pm GMT

Cameron says the minimum wage lost value after the Labour recession. Now it is going up. And it is set to reach more than 8 by the end of the next parliament. So Labour's plan to lift it to 8 would amount to a cut, he claims.

12.20pm GMT

Labour's Fiona Mactaggart says is cancer waiting times were met in Doncaster (see 12.07pm), it is because they have a very effective MP. But nationally cancer waiting referral targets have been missed in the last four quarters. What would Cameron say to the people affected.

Cameron says cancer survival figures are going up. More people are being referred for treatment. In Mactaggart's constituency the targets are being met. They have an effective MP too.

12.18pm GMT

This is quite fun.

Another gloomy half-hour for Nick. See how his expression has changed over the past five yrs: http://t.co/dcPkU0nGly pic.twitter.com/7EHm7x10iX

12.17pm GMT

Ed Mili now nervously re-reading through his Budget response on front bench. May explain why that wasn't his finest #PMQs.

12.16pm GMT

By my reckoning there are 4 past or present chancellors in the house - Osborne, Darling, Clark and Lawson #pmqs #Budget2015

12.14pm GMT

Snap PMQs Verdict: Cameron at his most hyper-confident. Miliband made a spirited attempt to unsettle him with a catalogue of NHS broken promises, or policy setbacks, but Cameron brushed him aside quite easily, partly with the cheap kitchen jokes (some of which were quite funny), partly with the point about the A&E list (assuming its true), but mostly with broad-brush boasting.

12.13pm GMT

12.10pm GMT

Miliband says Cameron broke his promises on waiting times, reorganisation, cancer treatment and A&E. Why should anyone believe his NHS promises?

Cameron says people can trust him because the economy is strong. Miliband has not even mentioned the employment figures, he says. Miliband says the NHS cannot survive another five years of Cameron. It will only be save under Labour.

12.07pm GMT

Miliband asks why Cameron broke his promise on cancer waiting times.

Cameron quotes cancer waiting times for Doncaster. The targets were met for people seeing a doctor, and beginning treatment. If Miliband cannot stand the heat, he ought to get out of his second kitchen.

12.05pm GMT

Ed Miliband says Cameron promised no top-down reorganisation of the NHS before the election. Was this an "over denial" or a broken promise?

Cameron says he made took the bureaucracy out of the NHS. And he put more money in. Ed Balls says he wants to be in the kitchen cabinet. But he does not know which one to turn up to.

12.05pm GMT

12.02pm GMT

Labour's Ian Murray says George Osborne said in his first budget we're all in this together. Did he dream up this soundbite before he proposed a 42,000 tax cuts for millionaires?

David Cameron says a record number of people are in work. In Murray's constituency, the claimant count has fallen by 49%.

12.00pm GMT

PMQs is about to start.

I will be covering the Cameron/Miliband exchanges, and budget related questions. AS

11.59am GMT

Here's the BBC's Allegra Stratton on suggestions that George Osborne might increase the national insurance threshold.

Senior sources rubbished a national insurance move recently... It didn't poll as well as Tax free thresholds. Too technical. We'll see.

11.56am GMT

Some more budget trivia - the length of George Osborne's previous budgets. This is from the Press Association.

2010: 54 minutes
2011: 56 minutes
2012: 58 minutes
2013: 54 minutes
2014: 55 minutes

11.56am GMT

This is not a slow motion video (!) Osborne shows off his Budget https://t.co/udTFTdfpkZ

11.50am GMT

In a Labour blog Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, says he thinks George Osborne will try to pull off "a huge deception" on the British public.

There's one thing we can be certain of about George Osborne's Budget today: from start to finish, it will be a cover-up of his terrible record as Chancellor.

The Conservatives came into office saying they'd protect our NHS, make people better off and balance the books -- but all three promises have been broken ...

11.44am GMT

Since 2010, the government has done a better job of lowering spending (as a share of the economy) than raising revenue, the Guardian Datablog team flag up:

11.30am GMT

This is what the prime minister's spokesman said about Osborne's budget presentation at cabinet this morning.

I think you will see a very strong package of measures and that view was shared right around the table. There was a clear expression of views from around the table that it was a good and strong package.

11.28am GMT

Some more budget trivia.

Every Chancellor of the Exchequer of the last 41 years is still alive, the only Cabinet job where this is the case #Budget2015

11.27am GMT

The CBI wants George Osborne to devote more help to working families (funds permitting, of course):

Free childcare -now 15 hrs- should be extended to 1&2 yr olds in #Budget2015 http://t.co/b8UGEw8qD0 pic.twitter.com/A8rTfeQOCt

11.21am GMT

The chancellor and his Treasury team have just posed for the traditional photo-shoot with the red box on Downing Street:

11.19am GMT

Back in the financial markets, the pound has hit a new five-year low against the dollar at $1.4661, down almost one cent.

Traders are pinning some blame on this morning's unemployment data. Although employment hit a record high, the weaker-than-expected wage growth means the Bank of England is less likely to raise interest rates anytime soon:

GBPUSD hits a June 2010 low. pic.twitter.com/MYOe6hSWcM

11.13am GMT

To what extent does the state of the economy affect a government's chances of re-election? There is a good essay on this subject in Sex, Lies & the Ballot Box, and in it David Sanders says there is a link, but that what matters is how well voters expect their individual circumstances to improve in the future.

The potential connection between people's economic perceptions and their voting choices generated the second area of academic interest - what is often called 'economic voting'. Distinctions were made between people's perceptions of their own and their families' interests ('egocentric' evaluations) and their broader views about the interests of the economy in general ('sociotropic' evaluations). Forward-looking ('prospective') evaluations were also distinguished from backward-looking ('retro- spective') ones. Different academic observers stressed different sets of perceptions, but in Britain it was often found that prospective egocentric evaluations or 'personal economic expectations' correlated most strongly with voting preference. In other words, it was how people thought the economy would do in the future that mattered, not how things had gone in the past; and it was what the government would do for you and your family that mattered, not any judgement about the country as a whole.

11.00am GMT

George Osborne has been tweeting. Here's the new pound coin he is introducing.

Here's the new 1 coin, designed by 15 year old David Pearce & featuring a symbol from each nation pic.twitter.com/N73BQHmSH7

Today we set out the next stage in a plan that is working, with a Budget that works for you. We will deliver a truly national recovery

10.57am GMT

Shabana Mahmood MP, the shadow exchequer secretary, has denied that Labour's plan to cut tuition fees could be scuppered by the budget.

She just told Sky News that Labour will "still have a fully funded proposal to cut tuition fees to 6,000 per year", even if Osborne reduces pension tax relief, as rumoured.

By cutting pensions tax relief from 1.25m to 1m Osborne is setting a big trap for Labour: how will Balls now pay for tuition fees cut?

10.51am GMT

One remarkable feature about his year's budget is that we will effectively get two versions of it. Today George Osborne will announce the main one, containing measures agreed by the coalition, but also long-term plans that are pure Conservative policy.

In an unprecedented move, Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, will announce a Lib Dem alternative in a Commons statement tomorrow. Lib Dem sources say he insisted on being allowed to do this because of the proximity of the election. He will announce some measures on tax evasion that are agreed coalition policy. But he will make a statement on "alternative fiscal plans" and publish a Treasury document explaining what would happen to spending in the next parliament under Lib Dem plans.

10.43am GMT

This is from the FT's Beth Rigby.

Budget rabbit? well connected Tory says Osborne to raise NI threshold: "It snookers Labour & puts money into people's pockets" #budget2015

10.38am GMT

David Cameron has just left Downing Street and headed to parliament ready for PMQs, and then the budget, looking pretty cheerful:

10.26am GMT

Vince Cable, the Lib Dem business secretary, told BBC News this morning that there would "not be a spectacular giveaway" in the budget. That begs the question, obviously, what an unspectacular giveaway would look like.

10.25am GMT

Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland have tweeted five key points to watch out for:

We'll be live tweeting throughout #Budget2015. Here's our top pick of what to look for... pic.twitter.com/BFjwTF6OY9

Nice use of Twitter GIFs" RT @SkyNews: Chancellors can drink during the Budget #Budget2015 pic.twitter.com/7ZOgztAoV5

10.11am GMT

Here's Rachel Reeves, Labour's Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, on this morning's unemployment data:

"Today's fall in overall unemployment is welcome, but working people are still 1,600 a year worse off since 2010, showing the Tory plan is failing.

"After five years of David Cameron the number of people paid less than a Living Wage has risen by 44%, and nearly half of all the new jobs created have been in low paid sectors. It's five years of Tory failure on low pay.

10.08am GMT

Here are two good pre-budget articles in the papers today that are particularly interesting.

Although I do not expect him to do this, he could greatly increase his scope to reduce income tax by raising the petrol tax. This has been - in my view unwisely - frozen since the government took office. But with the recent collapse in the oil price, an increase of, say, 5p a litre, which would bring in some 2 billion a year, has much to be said for it ...

The most important reason for collecting an extra 2bn from the petrol tax is that, coupled with the likely strengthening of the public finances, and some further public expenditure savings, it would give Mr Osborne the scope to cut a penny of the basic rate of income tax. The economic benefit would be significant, and the political impact massive, as I discovered when I took a penny off in 1986 - the first such reduction for seven years. Alas, this is unlikely. The practice of negotiating the Budget with the Liberal Democrats, which has caused budget-making to be such a nightmare during this parliament, means that any scope for reducing income tax will be frittered away in a further rise in personal allowances.

[Osborne] could decide that the elderly are aware that they use more fuel in winter, and should not be patronised by being given a winter fuel payment, as if the onset of winter always takes them by surprise. This should be done by replacing the winter fuel payment with an equivalent increase in the basic pension - which is, of course, taxable; thus ending, in the simplest possible way, the nonsense of the rich receiving a tax-free Christmas present from the state, and making a modest improvement to the public finances at the same time. Sadly, I don't expect to see this desirable reform implemented just yet, but its day will surely come.

Economic policy is, naturally, central to the outcome of elections. But budgets held immediately before campaigns are not.

Why is this? Well, to start with, voters don't pay much heed to political announcements and what they do hear, they often don't believe. Many pre-election budgets are simply held too late to make any difference. Any boost to income from today's Budget might be felt very faintly in one month's pay, if that.

10.01am GMT

Paul Kenny, general secretary of the GMB union, is less impressed by today's unemployment report, arguing:

"The economic recovery under way should be much further ahead than it is.

The 3.2 million increase in population since 2007 has led to additional economic activity in the UK, as would be expected. The new jobs being created are mainly low-skilled, low-paid and very precarious jobs. Even skilled workers in the UK face being undercut while wages are stagnant or falling in real terms.

"Well this is rather disappointing. The jobs market has been a consistent positive for the UK economy through the past 18 months and although jobs are still being created, the rate of expansion and the impact on wages is starting to diminish.

This recovery in UK jobs is something that will be lauded time and again while Osborne is at the Dispatch Box later on but, looking forward, these falls in unemployment are worth little if wages are not increasing too."

9.57am GMT

Here's business secretary Vince Cable's take on the jobless data:

"Today's employment figures are a historic moment. With almost three-quarters of working-age people now in work, we have achieved the highest rate of employment in the UK since records began.

"This is a sign that the long-term decisions the Liberal Democrats have taken in government have created a more resilient economy.

9.54am GMT

George Osborne has hailed the news that Britain's employment rate has hit a fresh record high (of 73.3%) in the last quarter:

"Today's ONS figures record yet another economic milestone, confirming a new record high employment rate alongside a claimant count that has not been lower since 1975. This good news is further proof that the government's long term economic plan is working and that British families are seeing the results with regular wages rising more than five times faster than prices.

But in an uncertain world economy all of this progress will be at risk of collapsing back into chaos unless we carry on working through the plan that is delivering stability and rising living standards."

The highest employment rate in our history is not a dry fact, it means more people with the security of a pay packet and a brighter future.

9.47am GMT

UK unemployment data has just been released, giving a new snapshot of the British economy in the runup to the budget.

And the Office for National Statistics reports that "employment continued to rise and unemployment continued to fall" in the three months to January.

9.34am GMT

Here are today's YouGov GB polling figures.

Update: Lab lead at 2 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 17th Mar - Con 34%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%; APP -20 http://t.co/staHN1j07I

9.27am GMT

Here's another shot from outside No 11 this morning.

9.26am GMT

The Treasury has claimed that moving Britain to a brave new world of digital tax accounts will mean less work for millions of us.

But Chas Roy-Chowdhury, head of taxation at the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, warns that taxpayers face a learning curve:

"Many of those filing paper self-assessment forms are self-employed people and those running small businesses who have been using the postal method for many years. They need to be given access to resources which help them move the process online to ensure they aren't left behind.

"Today's announcement by the Chancellor is part of the Government's push to get the tax payer to do more as HMRC's resources continue to be squeezed by 5% cuts year on year."

9.19am GMT

As Julia Kollewe reports, we have already been told quite a lot about what will be in the budget. If Sir Nicholas Macpherson is really going to call the police about pre-budget briefings, there are going to be some awkward conversations. Nick Clegg announced a budget spending announcement at the Lib Dem conference.

But there is more in today's paper. Here are some of the new reports about what will be in the budge.

End of the tax return: real-time digital accounts for all taxpayers #tomorrowspaperstoday #Budget15 pic.twitter.com/DCz0AR1m4r

Treasury source says report the Chancellor is to scrap the 20 per cent savings tax for all but the rich is inaccurate

9.17am GMT

Our economics editor Larry Elliott has expertly deconstructed a George Osborne budget speech - you don't want to miss it:

9.09am GMT

George Osborne will probably declare that the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.

The data suggests he's right, but the International Monetary Fund also reckons the US will overtake Britain this year in the growth stakes:

9.00am GMT

The financial markets are calm ahead of the budget.

Eminently being a pre-election budget, any measures that are announced are rather moot given a very uncertain election outcome.

As such Osborne's speech will primarily be about "talking up" what the government has achieved on the economy, and probably trying to distract from some of the very tough decisions on spending and taxes which will need to be implemented by the next government, given that the UK's budget deficit remains very large.

8.51am GMT

Here's the Guardian's guide to what we already know will be in the budget, and what we can expect.

8.49am GMT

And in the Commons, MPs have been queuing up so that they can grab a seat for the budget statement. They do this by putting what's called a prayer card on a seat when the doors open, allowing them to reserve it for later. They do this because there are only 427 seats in the chamber, even though there are 650 MPs.

The early birds waiting on #Budget2015 morning pic.twitter.com/IQPG4KkNpr

On Member 's lobby of Commons queueing for Prayer Card to get seat in Chamber for the Budget. pic.twitter.com/y98bHL5ZIL

8.45am GMT

Osborne has the chance today to boast that the economy is recovering, hint at tax cuts to come, and loosen - at least slightly - the austerity he plans for the next parliament.

City economists reckon that the chancellor has been handed a fiscal boost of around 6bn per year thanks to lower inflation, and predictions that growth will be faster than expected in December's autumn statement.

8.44am GMT

Here are some pictures from outside No 11 this morning.

Talk of mild frostbite among hackerati gathered in Downing St #budget15 #bloomin"freezing #softies pic.twitter.com/W7spdYGrp6

Downing Street as car park pic.twitter.com/ubrp4nxsBq

Wry smile from transport secretary as he confronts Budget day snappers pic.twitter.com/iKMpJFRSBr

8.39am GMT

It's the last budget of this parliament, and the last act of government of any significance taken by the coalition. Alternatively, it is the first proper day of the general election campaign.

Whichever way you look at it, it's going to be interesting.

Lower-than-expected inflation will give Osborne wriggle room of about an extra 6bn since the Treasury now needs to set aside less money to fund interest payments on debt, or to cover the cost of uprating welfare payments in line with inflation.

One crowd-pleaser, announced in advance, was plans for millions of taxpayers to be spared the annual burden of filling in forms with Osborne expected to declare the death of the tax return. The annual tax return will be replaced by a digital system within the next five years. The changes will apply to about 12 million taxpayers, including 11 million individuals and almost 2m companies.