UK falls into recession as GDP tumbles 20.4% in April-June - as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2020-08-12 15:53 (#56T7R)

Britain's economy shrank by a fifth in the last quarter, much worse than the US or the eurozone

4.53pm BST

And finally, the UK stock market has closed at its highest level in over three weeks - as Britain's slump into recession fails to alarm investors.

The FTSE 100 has ended the day 125 points higher at 6280, its best closing level since 17th July.

Amongst the best performers today it's been a good day, as well as a good first half of the year for Just Eat Takeaway, which saw revenues surge in the first half to 675m from 179m, as orders rose by 32%, due to the various economic lockdowns. That didn't stop the company posting a first half loss of 158m, though this was largely driven by the various associated costs related to the recent merger between the two companies.

It's also been a good day for the Admiral Group share price, after a decent set of H1 numbers which saw a 30% rise in pre-tax profit of 286.1m. This was despite a fall in first half turnover of 4%, after the company pledged to repay 100m to its customers since they weren't driving as much as they used to, due to lockdown restrictions. The company also pledged to pay a dividend of 70.5p a share, which included the payment of a 15.5p special dividend, which has seen the shares rise to the top of the FTSE100.

4.50pm BST

The UK's dire GDP figures show that governments don't have to choose between health and growth.

So argues economics professor Jonathan Portes, who writes that Britain's economy suffered because politicians didn't get a proper, effective grip on the crisis. That lack of competence has created a shortfall in confidence, he says here...

There are three reasons for this. The first is fairly obvious. The quicker the virus is definitively suppressed, the quicker the government can lift the health-related restrictions it imposed to contain the virus, and the quicker the economic recovery. Those countries that did get it under control, whether by luck or judgment, have clearly benefited.

The second is less obvious. We now have ample evidence that most of the behavioural change - and hence the impacts both on the spread of the virus and on the economy - associated with lockdowns" comes not directly from government-imposed restrictions, but from individuals and households changing how they live, travel and work in response to the perceived threat of the virus. Again, the quicker and more successful the measures are to contain the pandemic, the quicker the recovery, regardless of what the government does on the economic front.

The UK's GDP figures are proof there is no trade-off between lives and growth | Jonathan Portes https://t.co/z0h8CWEyNE

4.19pm BST

The Evening Standard argues that today's GDP report shows the economy could bounce back swiftly....unless rising unemployment hurts the recovery:

The data showed construction output improved 23.5% month on month in June - still down 24.8% on last year - with services improving 7.7% and manufacturing up 11%. However, business investment slumped as companies protected cashflow.

Nomura chief UK economist George Buckley said although Britain's economy had suffered worse than its European peers, the bouncebacks in industrial production figures across the Continent indicated that those country's that suffered the sharpest falls recovered the quickest.

Britain enters recession but hopes rise for a swift bounceback https://t.co/MffNi694ft

4.15pm BST

Things are hotting up on the London stock market, as well as on the streets outside.

The FTSE 100 is pushing higher in late trading, now up 135 points or 2.2% at 6289.

The UK is officially in its worst recession on record, as the economy shrunk by 20.4% in the second quarter, broadly in line with expectations. While there is some cause for optimism, being the 8.7% monthly rebound in June as shops reopened, the economy remains a sixth smaller than in February, highlighting the scale of the job ahead.

The market reaction was predictably muted, with the horrific GDP figure widely expected and, in many ways, outdated. It's one for the history books and today's headlines but as far as markets are concerned, a lot has happened since then in this ever-evolving crisis.

3.46pm BST

Just in: stocks of oil in America fell last week, in a possible sign that economic activity is strengthening.

US crude oil stocks fell by 4.5m barrels last week, more than the 2.9m drop expected. Stocks of gasoline and distillates (such as jet fuel and diesel) also fell.

--> EIA week ending 8/7 <--
Crude oil: -4.5M
Gasoline: -0.7M
Distillates: -2.3M
Refiner utilz: 81.0%
Impld mogas demand: 8.88 Mbpd#oil #OOTT #eia #crudeoil

2.55pm BST

The UK's historic contraction is dominating the headlines today.

The Financial Times focuses on the fact that the UK economy suffered a bigger slump than any other major European economies:

The figures confirm that the pandemic has hit the UK harder than other developed economies. After the second-quarter contraction, the decline in UK GDP since the end of 2019 is double that in the US and second only to Spain among European peers.

Analysts said the UK's underperformance was partly due to the length of its lockdown, and partly because the consumer-facing services sector that was hardest hit by social distancing has a bigger weight in GDP, accounting for 80 per cent of the economy.

That casts a light on the risks of winding down government support for companies and workers too soon. Almost 10 million jobs have been put on furlough programs under which the government pays the wages. Sunak, who has borrowed tens of billions of pounds to finance spending, insists the time has come to start phasing the plan out, although his critics say it should be extended.

Sunak has got a tricky job," said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING. There's no easy answer to the Job Retention Scheme and that's the main risk at the moment as that is unwound. There's a real chance that the recovery stalls if unemployment broadens out."

The hospitality industry was only able to reopen from 4 July, so was closed for the entire second quarter from April to June.

This was down almost 90pc, so the sector is ripe for a major recovery.

The UK's reliance on consumer services, which often require face-to-face contact, is one factor in the deeper than expected contraction.

Yet, that is not a sufficient explanation. Deep declines were experienced across the board, in services, construction and manufacturing.

2.26pm BST

As well as pushing the UK into recession, Covid-19 has sparked a cycling boom.

It's an option to make everyone's life easier, whether you're a commuter, student, family or just want to cycle on the weekends but don't want to commit or have the space to own a bike forever.

1.44pm BST

Meanwhile in America, inflation has risen faster than expected.

Consumer prices jumped by 0.6% in July compared to June, pushing annual inflation up to 1%.

#UnitedStates Annual #Inflation at 1.0% https://t.co/LjdvxZ14rQ pic.twitter.com/iGHD1DaFyr

US core inflation unexpectedly rose to 1.6% in July, rather than edging down to 1.1% as the consensus expected, as the prices of various travel-related items among other things started picking back up again pic.twitter.com/giBFhilu9U

July US CPI: on a year ago basis inflation up 1%, core pricing up 1.6%. Monthly food index declined 0.4% which will provide some relief to beleaguered consumers after rising 0.6% in June. Inflation remains a low risk to the outlook.

No theme is more important in the macro space right now than inflation. We are going to see a series of upside surprises in the inflation data... and it isn't going to be "good" inflation. It's going to be stealth "bad" inflation. Read everything you can about Stagflation.

1.31pm BST

The City continues to brush aside the UK's slide into recession.

The FTSE 100 index has now jumped by 84 points today, or 1.3% to 6,238, the highest in nearly three weeks.

1.21pm BST

NIESR, the economic think tank, has predicted that the UK economy will recover strongly in the current quarter.

Having analysed today's GDP report, they estimate growth of around 15% in July-September.

Today's ONS estimates suggest that GDP fell by a record 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of the year, thereby confirming the UK's first recession since the financial crash.

However, the monthly estimate for June suggests a rebound of 8.7 per cent, reflecting further easing of Covid-19 lockdown measures - though it remains a sixth below its level in February. Despite the recovery noted in June, the path ahead remains precarious. An extended period of growth will be required to make up the ground lost in recent months"

1.13pm BST

Rishi Sunak's warning that hard times' have arrived are a sign that the government expects the economic pain to continue.

That pain is already being felt in the jobs market, with employment falling sharply in the last quarter. The Bank of England predicts unemployment will almost double by the end of the year, from 3.9% to 7.5%.

The UK is in deep recession, green shoots are appearing but is the worst yet to come?"

The critical time will be the last quarter of 2020, and there is a lot resting on the impact of the furlough scheme finally closing in October, the important festive trading period for businesses and a realistic chance of successful vaccine becoming available. Many businesses are limping through to Christmas, but it will be a rollercoaster between now and the New Year with so many unpredictable elements in play.

12.38pm BST

The Press Association have pulled together a Q&A on the UK's fall into recession:

Why is the UK in recession and what does it mean?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) officially declared the UK in recession - the steepest on record - after the economy plunged by a record 20.4% between April and June due to the coronavirus lockdown.

This follows a 2.2% contraction in the previous three months and means the UK entered into a technical recession, as defined by two successive quarters of falling output.

Britain's second quarter contraction was the steepest of all the major economies, worse even than Spain's 18.5% tumble and more than double the 9.5% plunge seen in the United States.

Experts say some of this is down to the later timing of Britain's lockdown in March and the path of easing restrictions.

Monthly data showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 8.7% in June, following expansion of 2.4% in May, as lockdown restrictions eased further.

With non-essential shops having reopened for business in June, it meant the powerhouse services sector notched up growth of 7.7%.

Unfortunately not. Despite growth over the past two months, the economy is still 22.1% smaller than it was at the end of 2019.

And there are fears the UK faces a long road ahead to economic recovery, given the threat of a second wave and possible further lockdowns, with a jobs crisis also on the horizon as Government support measures come to an end.

Recessions ultimately have an impact on living standards, but the full effect will largely depend on the scale of unemployment and how long it takes for businesses and the jobs market to recover.

12.17pm BST

If you're just tuning in, this chart gives the clearest picture of how the UK economy has suffered its worst recession on record:

Our latest GDP estimates for June show that the UK economy is now 17.2% smaller than it was in February before the full impacts of the #coronavirus #COVID19 pandemic hit https://t.co/8FmcVvX6lz pic.twitter.com/Qgh12prPtt

GDP fell 20.4% in Quarter 2 2020; with services (-19.9%) manufacturing (-20.2%) and construction (-35.0%) all experiencing record quarterly falls https://t.co/48usB8pTAK pic.twitter.com/AY4QsuMFJI

Commenting on today's GDP figures for June and Quarter 2 @jathers_ONS said: https://t.co/TZbr1RFe78 1/2 pic.twitter.com/oGipsofLhH

.@jathers_ONS continued: https://t.co/nRcsc285az 2/2 pic.twitter.com/phCdsN1xQo

Despite growth in June, services, manufacturing and construction all remained significantly below their February levels.

Read more about how #COVID19 has impacted different industries in the UK economy https://t.co/jfDN9QiEv2 pic.twitter.com/ZfbTJ1meUx

Construction output fell 35.0% in Quarter 2.

In addition, construction new orders fell by a record 51.1% in Quarter 2 to 6.2bn; their lowest level since records began in Quarter 1 1964 https://t.co/5dWHmIZDsc pic.twitter.com/kJKaelxyrZ

11.48am BST

Here's more reaction to the GDP report, from Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

This chart from @ONS puts today's GDP figures in some perspective. You can barely see the great recession of 2008-09 on this scale. pic.twitter.com/BhHTcLAEGu

Largest-ever collapse in British GDP in Q2, but hardly surprising. Initial dithering in response to coronavirus was replaced with a severe lockdown end-March. which lasted longer than in other European countries. Thus the overall decline in activity was more severe than in Spain pic.twitter.com/Efomd9cciW

For many companies digesting today's news will be hard, as many sectors including retail, casual dining and construction have already been significantly impacted by the global pandemic. The extent of the problem will only be revealed when the Government dismantles the support schemes which will leave business vulnerable to managing their own debt. This, for some, will be crippling.

Dynamic conversations will be taking place between lenders and their customers to manage this process and ensure the terms of their debt are manageable. The UK has a culture of rescue finance' with insolvency being the last resort for struggling businesses. Wherever possible, banks and lenders aim to ensure financial support is available for financially stressed borrowers.

11.38am BST

In another blow, UK productivity fell at a record rate in the last quarter.

With many workers furloughed at home, output per worker fell by 19.9% in April-June compare with January-March.

10.53am BST

The slump in GDP in April-June highlights the mistakes made by the UK government over Covid-19, writes our economics editor, Larry Elliott:

Twice as bad as the US. Ten times worse than anything seen during the financial crash of the late 2000s. Worse than any EU country. The UK is planted firmly at the bottom of the Covid-19 developed country league table after the economy contracted by a fifth in the second quarter of 2020.

The reasons Britain is once again being dubbed by some the sick man of Europe" are pretty clear. After weeks of dithering, the government imposed a stringent lockdown that was tougher and lasted for longer than elsewhere. Allowing the virus to spread to care homes meant the re-opening of bits of the economy was slow.

10.49am BST

10.48am BST

Here's a reminder of how the UK suffered a worse slump than other advanced economies:

10.38am BST

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has told Sky News that the UK economy was getting back to a new normal" as lockdown restrictions ease.

Sunak explains:

It's not a sustainable situation to have vast swathes of our economy essentially shut down.

And that's why we have been able to successfully reopen bits, and do it in a safe way.

10.20am BST

Meanwhile in the eurozone.... factory output has also rallied in June.

Industrial production across the euro area jumped by 9.1% month-on-month, slightly below the recovery seen in the UK (see previous post).

Production of durable consumer goods rose by 20.2%, capital goods by 14.2%, intermediate goods by 6.7%, non-durable consumer goods by 4.8% and energy by 2.6%

Eurozone June Industrial Production Report - Eurostathttps://t.co/EXHItR5ZkN pic.twitter.com/CPp3IJTW9D

10.17am BST

Encouragingly, manufacturing, services and construction output did jump sharply in June, helping the economy expand by 8.7%.

The ONS reports that all three sectors expanded, but are also still significantly smaller than before the lockdown:

10.04am BST

Sky News's Ed Conway shows how the Covid-19 slump is even worse than the downturn of the 1920s:

Here it is in chart form.
The UK's 20.4% contraction in GDP (that bar on the far right hand side) compared with every other quarterly GDP growth number back to 1920.
We've never seen anything like this. pic.twitter.com/yf4p6jUkUL

9.27am BST

Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool reckons the UK's recovery will resemble a Nike Swoosh', rather than a perkier V-shape which some have predicted.

He tells us:

Today's GDP quarter-on-quarter drop of 20.4% is slightly better than the 20.7% estimate of the Bank of England.

In reality, today's data point to a very slow type of recovery which, in my view, resembles a Nike swoosh' type of recovery rather than the most optimistic V-type one. As can be seen here:

UK GDP was 17% below its pre-pandemic level in June 2020.

UK GDP follows quite closely Google mobility data (a good proxy for the expenditure of consumers). These data, even in August 2020, confirm that expenditure is lagging behind its pre-pandemic level quite substantially. Not good news on how UK GDP will evolve in the third quarter of 2020...

9.07am BST

Reuters' David Milliken has dug into the GDP report, and spotted that UK car production was particularly weak in Q2 while pharmaceuticals surged:

Big variations within the manufacturing sector too. The headline-grabbing collapse in car production has been much worse than for other types of manufacturer, and - perhaps unsurprisingly - pharmaceuticals production has expanded. pic.twitter.com/Nd7L7kZmZO

More here from the ONS showing how it's a very different downturn for different parts of the services sector. Hospitality hammered by the lockdown - but also worth seeing the rapid (but partial) recovery in retail as lockdown eased in June. pic.twitter.com/V0Mpjq4FRy

9.00am BST

Some history:

8.47am BST

Today's GDP figures haven't rattled the City.

The FTSE 100 index of top blue-chip shares has risen by around 0.5%, or 30 points, this morning to 6184, which is nearly a three-week high.

Contracting 20.4% from April to June, the UK's Q2 performance makes it far and away the worst hit country among its G7 peers. It's not even close. That decline is more than double the hit taken by Germany and the US, and 6.6 percent points higher than the next nation (France, which suffered a 13.8% drop).

It is further economic evidence of the bungling nature of Boris Johnson and his government's approach to the covid-19 pandemic, one that has cost more lives and jobs than any other nation in Europe. And that's in a country that doesn't have to worry about physical borders.

8.26am BST

8.23am BST

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, warns that the UK faces a slow crawl' back to recovery from the worst recession ever.

Today's figures confirm that the UK is enduring the worst recession on record. The economy is more than a fifth smaller than it was at the start of the year and is smaller than it was at the low point after the financial crisis. Despite an encouraging pick-up in activity in June as lockdown ended, the record 20% fall in output in April ensured that the UK has followed our eurozone neighbours and the US into an historic economic slump.

The scale of the contraction compared with comparable countries is a concern, although it does reflect the length of time during the quarter that the UK was in lockdown. Expectations from the Bank of England that the economic fallout from the pandemic would be short-lived, or V-shaped, are borne out by the sharp fall and rapid partial recovery but UK GDP has seen the biggest quarterly drop of any G7 economy.

GDP numbers for June show a strong bounce in activity as the economy emerged from lockdown.

We expect pent-up consumer demand to drive a strong recovery in the third quarter, although this momentum will gradually fade as the outlook for the labour market deteriorates. The UK economy is unlikely to return to its pre-crisis level before the end of next year.

Economist @lindayueh tells Sky News that even if expected, "it is still a shock to see the scale of the decline in GDP national output across all of the sectors", as the UK enters recession.

Read more: https://t.co/QHNdNH7XiM #KayBurley pic.twitter.com/DfIZ3aGaix

Comparisons to previous recessions are not particularly illuminating.

Firstly, the 20.4% contraction in Q2 was caused by active shuttering of the economy which has since been reversed - hence we are likely to see a faster recovery of much of that activity than in, say, 2009. The 8.7% monthly jump in June supports this.

8.05am BST

The UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has warned that the UK faces difficult choices' after plunging so deeply into recession:

I've said before that hard times were ahead, and today's figures confirm that hard times are here. Hundreds of thousands of people have already lost their jobs, and sadly in the coming months many more will.

But while there are difficult choices to be made ahead, we will get through this, and I can assure people that nobody will be left without hope or opportunity."

7.52am BST

Here's Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, on Britain's slide into recession:

The recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic has led to the biggest fall in quarterly GDP on record.

The economy began to bounce back in June, with shops reopening, factories beginning to ramp up production and house-building continuing to recover.

7.49am BST

This heatmap from Bloomberg shows how the UK fared particularly badly last quarter:

Britain's 20.4% GDP contraction exceeded the 18.5% recorded in Spain, the worst-performing country in the EU https://t.co/BifXGqMTGa pic.twitter.com/VQFAPIwh1X

7.48am BST

Here's our economics correspondent Richard Partington on today's GDP figures:

After a decline of 2.2% in the first quarter, the figures confirm the UK economy plunged into recession after the outbreak spread in March and the government imposed a nationwide lockdown to contain it. Economists consider two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP as the technical definition of a recession.

However, monthly figures for the economy indicate that Britain's economy continued to recover from the pandemic in June as lockdown measures were gradually relaxed and pent-up demand fuelled a rise in consumer spending. GDP grew by 8.7% on the month - faster than expected by City economists.

7.43am BST

Economist Keith Church points out that restaurants, bars and hotels drove the recovery in June:

GDP rose 8.7% in June. Big rise in accommodation and food services from a very low base. pic.twitter.com/umDWPZvsBc

7.42am BST

We now know that Britain's economy has suffered a much worse slump than other countries.

The 20.4% plunge in GDP in April-June is twice as bad as Germany and the US, and also more severe than any other G7 nation.

Drop in GDP, Apr-Jun 2020

-10.1%
-11.9%
-12.2%
-12.4%
-13.8%
-14.1%
-20.4%

We've already got the worst excess death rate in Europe. Now we're on course for the worst recession too.

A downturn was inevitable after lockdown - Johnson's jobs crisis wasn't.

Q2 GDP data confirm the U.K. is the Sick Man of Europe. GDP down 20.4% q/q.

The U.K. government's failure to lockdown early and then to stamp out Covid-19 quickly ranks as one of the biggest macroeconomic policy blunders in modern times. We've all paid a hefty price. pic.twitter.com/577CxxD7p2

7.30am BST

Every sector of the UK economy had an utterly torrid quarter.

Services companies, production firms and builders all suffered record quarterly falls in GDP in the April-June quarter, as the country fell into recession.

7.22am BST

So far this year, the UK economy has shrunk by over 22% (an astonishing drop, and not a sentence anyone expected to read back on January 1st).

That means Britain has suffered one of the steepest slumps, compared to other advanced economies. And that's because it has imposed lockdown measures for longer than many rivals.

Compared with the end of 2019, the UK fell by a cumulative 22.1% in the first six months of 2020. This fall was slightly below the 22.7% seen in Spain but was more than double the 10.6% fall in United States GDP over this period.

The larger contraction of the UK economy primarily reflects how lockdown measures have been in place for a larger part of this period in the UK compared with these other economies.

7.16am BST

In better news, the UK economy did grow in June.

The ONS reports that monthly gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.7% in June 2020, following growth of 2.4% in May 2020 (that's been revised up from 1.8%, I think).

But despite this, the level of output did not fully recover from the record falls seen across March and April 2020, and has reduced by 17.2% compared with February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

7.13am BST

The contraction in Britain's economy this year is much, much worse than the last recession, as this chart shows:

7.10am BST

The slump in April-June is officially the worst quarter ever, and wipes out around 17 years of growth.

The Office for National Statistics says:

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by a record 20.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline after GDP fell by 2.2% in the previous quarter.

This is the largest quarterly contraction in the UK economy since Office for National Statistics (ONS) quarterly records began in 1955, and reflects the ongoing public health restrictions and forms of voluntary social distancing that have been put in place in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In level terms, real GDP was last lower in Quarter 2 2003. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by 21.7%.

7.04am BST

Newsflash: The UK economy contracted by 20.4% in the second quarter of 2020, as the Covid-19 lockdown pushed the country into an unprecedented slump.
That puts the UK into recession for the first time since the financial crisis, and follows a 2.2% drop in GDP in January-March.

The ONS says:

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by a record 20.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline after it fell by 2.2% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020.

There have been record quarterly falls in services, production and construction output in Quarter 2, which have been particularly prevalent in those industries that have been most exposed to government restrictions.

6.55am BST

Not long to go....

The country's worst kept secret will be confirmed at 7am when the ONS publish latest UK GDP numbers. There's no doubt we're in recession, but just how deep was that Q2 contraction. Consensus is for around -21%.

Good morning from the city of London... set to be another sizzler as we wait for the latest UK GDP numbers to show the country is officially in recession . pic.twitter.com/SNKCfqhKpf

6.45am BST

There's an an awful lot of pessimism" about just how bad today's UK GDP figures will be, says Michael Hewson of CMC Markets:

In Europe a couple of weeks ago we saw eye watering drops in output in the latest Q2 GDP numbers, from the likes of Spain, where we saw a Q2 drop in output of -18.5% to Germany which saw a more modest -10.1% drop, while the US saw a -9% fall in output.

Today's UK numbers are expected to be no less sobering, with estimates from anywhere between -15% to -25% for Q2, a big drop from the -2.2% contraction seen in Q1.

6.37am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We're about to discover quite how badly the UK economy fared during the Covid-19 lockdown, and whether it is on the road to recovery. The latest GDP report, due at 7am, is expected to show that activity slumped dramatically in April-June, plunging the UK into a technical recession. The slump is expected to be deeper than in many other advanced economies. Economists predict that GDP contracted by around 21% in the second quarter, following a 2.2% fall in Q1. That would be the deepest quarterly slump on record, putting the UK on track for its worst year in decades.

The uk will plummet into recession today for first time since 2008 with GDP expected to have slumped by a record 21% in the run up to June @GMB

The US and the eurozone have already been confirmed in recession as the global economy grapples with the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, China, at the heart of the original outbreak, avoided recession after it returned to growth in the second quarter.

The slump in Britain is expected to be the biggest quarterly drop of any G7 economy due to the later launch of lockdown controls and the slower removal of harsh restrictions.

#Gold collapseds below $1,900 an ounce extending the precious metal's slump into a second day, to head for its biggest two-day loss in more than seven years as investors step back from one of the hottest trades of 2020 as Treasury yields rise. https://t.co/ORjPA5me7O pic.twitter.com/SPbcOwCIwC

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