Link service levels at risk when Northgate opens as LRVs delayed

New Siemens S700 railcar alongside older Kinkisharyo model at the OMF-E in Bellevue (image: Sound Transit)

{Sound Transit contacted us to clarify that they will be able to support 8 minute peak headways with 30+ qualified vehicles in Fall 2021 if the recovery schedule proceeds as planned. Clarifications in text below with new commentary in bold.}

Sound Transit has contracted to acquire 152 new light rail vehicles to support network expansions through 2024. Of those, 40 were to have been available ahead of the opening of Northgate Link in Fall 2021. must be available to enable the planned 8-minute headways to Northgate opening Fall 2021. Just 12 are mainline-ready at this time. That number is expected to rise to over 30 before Northgate opens, less than planned but enough to operate 8 minute service if no further delays are encountered. ,still 10 vehicles short of what is needed.

There's no single reason for the schedule slippage, more a cascading series of holdups each of which delayed the next step in getting vehicles ready for service. 68 new vehicles have been assembled by Siemens to date, and manufacturing is now on schedule and on budget. But there were earlier delays that rippled downstream. Those challenges included supply chain holdups and re-work on some cars due to unacceptable quality. A handful of vehicles received in Seattle were returned to Sacramento for repairs to exterior panels and those are now back in Seattle. 26 vehicles are now on-site in Seattle.

The more recent issues are mostly in Seattle where a considerable amount of work is necessary to prepare and test each vehicle so they are ready for service. Early on, there were problems in recruiting enough technicians and inspectors. Fifteen months ago, the testing and commission process got underway, with tests offsite before shipping and at the OMF. Burn-in reliability tests take place on the mainline track during non-revenue hours. There have been COVID-related delays to all of this work at Sound Transit and at Siemens in addition to other partners further up the supply chain.

LRVs at the Siemens plant in Sacramento await shipping to Seattle. (image: Sound Transit)

A recent signals interference issue between on-board subsystems has probably been resolved, with a resolution currently being reviewed before deployment.

The project was baselined with the expectation that 40 LRVs would be delivered by the end of 2020, with the first of the new LRVs in revenue service early in 2020. Sound Transit now expects revenue service with the new vehicles to begin early in 2021. The need for spares means six cars are necessary to schedule a train into regular service.

Sound Transit's goal is to commission four cars per month until the last go into service in 2024. That seems unlikely this year. With two months float, staff expect 30+ vehicles to be ready before Northgate opens. There are identifiable risks to this schedule. The top risk is of more delays to qualifying the on-board systems. But staff also point out that COVID could slow work more, or the competing workload of maintaining the current fleet may draw too many resources.

Staff intend to bring recommendations to the Board in February 2021. At that time, there should be more visibility on risks to qualifying vehicles, to just how great the shortfall is, and perhaps some more visibility to whether ridership is recovering. There were few clues to what any mitigation would look like if the recovery plan fell short. The working assumption seems to be that trains would operate at four cars, making reduced headways the more probable outcome.

Sound Transit's schedule recovery plan aims for 30 cars ahead of Northgate service (slide: Sound Transit)