Battery Prices Have Fallen 88 Percent Over the Last Decade
Freeman writes:
Battery prices have fallen 88 percent over the last decade:
The average cost of a lithium-ion battery pack fell to $137 per kWh in 2020, according to a new industry survey from BloombergNEF. That's an inflation-adjusted decline of 13 percent since 2019. The latest figures continue the astonishing progress in battery technology over the last decade, with pack prices declining 88 percent since 2010.
[...] BloombergNEF estimates that battery-pack prices will fall to $100 per kWh by 2024. That's roughly the level necessary for BEVs to be price-competitive with conventional cars without subsidies. Given that electric vehicles are cheap to charge and will likely require less maintenance than a conventional car, they will be an increasingly compelling option over the next decade.
[...] Economists define the "learning rate" as the percentage decrease in price for every doubling of output. BloombergNEF estimates that the learning rate for batteries is about 18 percent: every time global battery output doubles, prices fall by 18 percent.
Battery prices declined 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent by 2020. These are certainly significant improvements, but the rate of progress seems to be slowing. Battery prices declined at an average annual rate of 19 percent between 2010 and 2018.
BloombergNEF attributes the slowing pace of progress to slowing growth of volume in the battery industry. In absolute terms, battery shipments are growing faster than ever. But now that the industry is much bigger-BloombergNEF estimates it grew by a factor of 264 between 2010 and 2020-it will be difficult for the industry to match earlier growth rates in percentage terms. And that's likely to translate to a slower-but still significant-percentage decline in battery prices.
Sadly, this has not translated to cheaper AA batteries, rechargeable batteries or otherwise.
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