Imminent Sudden Stratospheric Warming to Occur, Bringing Increased Risk of Snow Over Coming Weeks
upstart writes in with an IRC submission:
Imminent sudden stratospheric warming to occur, bringing increased risk of snow over coming weeks:
A new study led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Exeter, and Bath helps to shed light on the winter weather we may soon have in store following a dramatic meteorological event currently unfolding high above the North Pole.
Weather forecasting models are predicting with increasing confidence that a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event will take place today, 5 January 2021.
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from around 10-50km above the earth's surface. SSW events are some of the most extreme of atmospheric phenomena and can see polar stratospheric temperature increase by up to 50C over the course of a few days. Such events can bring very cold weather, which often result in snowstorms.
The infamous 2018 'Beast from the East' is a stark reminder of what an SSW can bring. The disturbance in the stratosphere can be transmitted downward and if this continues to the Earth's surface, there can be a shift in the jet stream, leading to unusually cold weather across Europe and Northern Asia. It can take a number of weeks for the signal to reach the surface, or the process may only take a few days.
The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), involved the analysis of 40 observed SSW events which occurred over the last 60 years. Researchers developed a novel method for tracking the signal of an SSW downward from its onset in the stratosphere to the surface.
Additional coverage at The Washington Post and the UK Met Office.
Journal Reference:
Richard J. Hall, Daniel M. Mitchell, William J.M Seviour, et al. Tracking the stratospheretosurface impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (DOI: 10.1029/2020JD033881)
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