European markets’ best run in two years; UK jobless rate falls; US retail sales disappoint – as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2021-06-15 18:41 (#5K2W4)

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Stoxx 600's eighth daily gain in a row
FTSE 100 closes at 16-month high
US retail sales dropped in May
Full story: UK unemployment rate drops again as firms hire more staff
7am: UK jobless rate drops to 4.7% in February-April
Vacancies up.... but... youth employment fears

7.21pm BST

Time to wrap up

European stock markets have racked up their longest winning streak since April 2019, as optimism over the economic recovery continues to lift shares.

People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360

Tariffs will be cut on Australian products such as Jacob's Creek and Hardys wines, as well as on beef, lamb, swimwear and confectionary. However, by the government's own admission, the savings add up to 34m a year - little more than a pound each per household.

Scotch whisky, biscuits and ceramics will be cheaper to sell into Australia, aiming to help UK industries that employ 3.5 million people. Still, the government admits that its deal will only boost UK GDP by up to 0.02% after 15 years, barely a rounding error for a 2tn economy.

On the Australia-UK trade deal, Labour argue the tariff-free quotas for meat imports are so high the 15-year protective period for UK farmers is essentially pointless. Initial limit for beef imports: 35,000 tonnes. *Total* imports in 2019: 1,766 tonnes. https://t.co/YEfRBuyGJL

6.28pm BST

Investor Michael Burry -- most famous for his role in The Big Short -- has warned that the markets are currently in the greatest speculative bubble ever.

Burry returned to Twitter this week for the first time since February, and tweeted a new warning about rampant speculation, saying:

People always ask me what is going on in the markets.

It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360."

People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360

The hashtag was likely a reference to a famous saying in investing: Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." Burry has repeatedly told investors that they're being too greedy, speculating wildly, shouldering too much risk, and chasing unrealistic returns.

The Scion Asset Management chief deleted his Twitter profile in early April after sounding the alarm on Tesla stock - which he's short - as well as GameStop, bitcoin, dogecoin, Robinhood, SPACs, inflation, and the broader stock market. He resumed tweeting on Monday.

5.37pm BST

Europe's stock markets have racked up their longest run of gains since April 2019 - by a whisker.

The Stoxx 600 index of European shares has closed half a point higher at 458.81 points, up just 0.11%.

5.07pm BST

Back in the City, the FTSE 100 has ended the day at its highest close since the pandemic hit Europe in late February 2020.

The blue-chip index finished today's session nearly 26 points higher at 7172 points.

4.28pm BST

Oil prices pushed higher today as traders anticipated stronger demand as the global economy recovers, and the prospect of an imminent increase in supply from Iran faded.

Brent crude traded as high at $73.90 per barrel, the highest since April 2019. US crude hit its highest since October 2018, touching $72 per barrel.

With supply growth lagging demand growth in the near term, faster falling oil inventories are supporting oil prices,"

The markets have been looking with interest at the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with the objective of reviving the nuclear agreement between the two countries, which could also mean the end of restrictions on Iranian oil sales.

However, early losses in the price of crude were swiftly reversed following indirect negotiations between the two countries that have so far failed to bear any fruits, with observers considering that an agreement is far from imminent.

Today's Crude Oil Prices:
WTI: $71.77 (+0.87)
Brent: $73.62 (+0.76) #supply #crudeoil #oilexploration

4.11pm BST

Airlines must remain free to fly over rogue states despite the state-sponsored hijacking" of a plane by Belarus, according to the boss of Ryanair, as he told MPs of the hostile and threatening" actions towards the flight crew in Minsk.

The captain and five crew of Ryanair flight FR4978 from Athens to Vilnius were put under armed guard in Minsk after diverting the plane for a fake bomb threat - apparently staged to allow the Belarus government to capture an opposition journalist among the 126 passengers. Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega were arrested on landing.

repeatedly seeking an open line of communication to Ryanair's operations control centre in Warsaw, various excuses came back from Minsk on why they couldn't reach us, Ryanair weren't answering the phone, all of which was completely untrue".

The crew were put under significant pressure, taken under armed guard and held for a number of hours. The captain was accompanied by an armed guard ... It was a very hostile and threatening environment."

3.42pm BST

In something of a financial morality tale, the EU has excluded 10 of the heaviest-hitting banks in the debt market from running lucrative bond sales as part of its 800bn recovery fund.

Why? Because historic breaches of antitrust rules - such as manipulating currency markets or taking part in a bond trading cartel - mean they have blotted their copybook with the Commission.

Brussels' biggest ever borrowing spree kicks off on Tuesday with the sale of a new 10-year bond to fund the NextGenerationEU programme under a so-called syndication, where a group of banks is paid to drum up demand from investors.

But 10, including big players such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Barclays, have been told they cannot take part in these deals due to previous involvement in market-rigging scandals, according to people familiar with the matter.

EU freezes 10 banks out of bond sales over antitrust breaches https://t.co/HL2KtuTLQA via @financialtimes

3.20pm BST

More US data on the wires.. and this time, confidence among American homebuilders has fallen to a 10-month low.

Sentiment was knocked by rising costs and supply shortages, which may show the US housing market is cooling after a surge in prices in the last year.

Higher costs and declining availability for softwood lumber and other building materials pushed down builder sentiment in June,"

These higher costs have moved some new homes beyond the budget of prospective buyers, which has slowed the strong pace of home building."

Unexpected downtick for June @NAHBhome Homebuilder Confidence, to 81 vs. 83 est./prior month; present & future single family sales fell, along with prospective buyers traffic ... unavoidable increases for new home prices continuing to push buyers to sidelines pic.twitter.com/QnDuwqFm7y

Homebuilder sentiment drops to 10-month low, as construction costs drive prices higher https://t.co/XX0ctqmriv

Yeah...I'd say Lumber futures have gotten a serious reality check...you could almost say that the sky-high prices for this commodity were "transitory" https://t.co/cCQMLnd4U8 pic.twitter.com/D057yu0gqO

3.00pm BST

After that flurry of economic data, the New York stock exchange has opened cautiously ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision.

Energy stocks are rallying, as crude oil prices hit their highest levels in over two years.

BREAKING:

*S&P 500 HITS NEW RECORD HIGH pic.twitter.com/muJyDKiKxT

2.40pm BST

US factory production has picked up, led by a recovery in car manufacturing.

Total industrial production increased 0.8% in May, new data from the Federal Reserve shows, following a downwardly revised 0.1% in April.

Overall vehicle assemblies jumped about 1 million units to 9.9 million units (annual rate); even so, they remained more than 1 million units below their average level in the second half of 2020, as production continued to be hampered by shortages of semiconductors

Industrial production in May stronger at +0.8% vs. +0.7% est. & +0.1% in prior month (unfortunately rev down from +0.7%); factory production +0.9% vs. -0.1% prior; utilities +0.2% vs. +1.9% prior; mining +1.2% vs. -0.4% prior pic.twitter.com/CxlyIvl4Ny

2.24pm BST

US producers kept hiking their prices in May, in another sign that inflationary pressures are building.

Producer prices rose by 6.6% per year in May, the largest increase since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began calculating 12-month data in November 2010.

US producer prices jumped much more than expected to 6.6% in May; this could put a bit of pressure on the Fed tomorrow in how they word their comments on inflation and the outlook for rates.

Meanwhile, retail sales missed expectations, showing a big drop over April, suggesting that the consumer recovery may not be as strong as thought, but this is only one data point in a strong recovery."

2.10pm BST

Highlights (prior month):
Clothing +3% (-2%)
Eating, drinking +1.8% (+4.5%)
Health/personal care +1.8% (+1%)
Sporting goods -0.8% (-2.3%)
E-commerce -0.8% (-0.3%)
Furniture -2.1% (-0.7%)
Electronics -3.4% (+1.5%)
Motor vehicles/parts -3.7% (+4.3%)
Building materials -5.9% (-2.3%)

2.01pm BST

US clothing sales rose 3% during May, and were 200% higher than a year ago, as people spruced up their wardrobes for the return to the office, or to hospitality venues again.

So you can see the reopening upending the retail sales numbers: Clothing sales up 200% y-o-y as people go back to offices; home and garden stores plunge 5.9% in May, presumably as home projects decelerate; restaurant and bar sales up 71% y-o-y. pic.twitter.com/qRKlWv03l9

Don't worry about falling US retail sales even if it continues in coming months - may just reflect that Americans are spending more money on services again. Monthly PCE data are due out next Friday! (25 June) pic.twitter.com/fC2tFIrlIq

Despite the May slowdown in #retail sales, large upward revisions to April data means that the consumer pulse remains vibrant with headline & core retail sales still 18% above their pre-pandemic level! pic.twitter.com/1IDqEOLOrS

1.58pm BST

US retail sales fell sharply in May, amid supply chain disruption and a return to normality as the pandemic eased.

Retail sales dropped by 1.3% in May, more than the 0.8% fall expected.

Funky-lookin' consumer spending rotation

US #retail sales -1.3% in May; Core sales -0.7%

Build mat -5.9%
Auto -3.7%
Elect -3.4%
Furn. -2.1%
Online -0.8%
Gas +0.7%
Health +1.8%
Rest & bars +1.8%
Cloth +3.0%

Don't be fooled: strong consumer spending ahead driven by services pic.twitter.com/v0qbEw7kvi

This spending celebration has a number of months to run," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings.

Households have a lot of money to spend," she said, referencing the mounds of savings that some consumers accumulated during lockdowns and multiple rounds of government stimulus.

Retail spending fell 1.3% in May. Supply-chain disruptions and business reopenings are triggering a consumer spending shift from goods to services. https://t.co/uiovuVlbCy

May US retail sales miss expectations at -1.3% vs -0.7% exp (m/m). Core misses as well, -0.7% vs +0.4% exp.

But a look beneath the hood tells a familiar story: supply chain constraints have lifted prices, so consumers are spending less.

1.42pm BST

We are delighted to welcome Andrew Bailey, Governor of the @bankofengland, to our Annual Conference 2021 in partnership with @citsecurities and supported by @PA_Consulting and @PhoenixGroupUK. pic.twitter.com/ekfeG2hX1w

Bailey making some pretty straight comments about the need for Stablecoins to have assets covering coin issuance at all times or else go get a banking license....

Andrew Bailey says a Central Bank Digital Coin could be a good alternative to a stable coin, and that the @bankofengland is looking at this.

Andrew Bailey, we don't know much about the likely demand for digital money, but we may need to take steps to limit or slow any transition to ensure financial stability. @bankofengland pic.twitter.com/52DdFI6R0B

1.16pm BST

The weaker pound has helped the FTSE 100 index nudge a new pandemic high.

The index of blue-chip shares has touched 7189.63 points, slightly over yesterday's 15-month high.

1.10pm BST

Holiday bookings for summer 2022 are significantly" ahead of normal, according to online travel agent On The Beach, as the prospect of a break in the sun this year recedes.

The Manchester-based company reported a 79% fall in revenues to 4.4m in the six months to 31 March, as it felt the effect of travel restrictions. Its adjusted pretax loss shrank to 21.6m from 34.1m, reflecting lower marketing spending.

Booking volumes for summer 2022 remain low, but are significantly ahead of normal trading patterns, partially due to the early release of flights for next year by most major airlines.".

12.59pm BST

Sterling has dropped to a one-month low against the US dollar, as traders digest yesterday's delay to the end of lockdown.

After initially taking the news in its stride, the pound has now dropped by around 0.5% to $1.404, its lowest point since 14th May.

In the run up to yesterday's announcement, we've seen political pressure mounting over withheld international travel, rising Covid-19 cases, and evolving variants.

In this climate, the success of the UK's vaccine rollout has become increasingly pivotal to currency movements in the Pound.

12.31pm BST

The UK's competition watchdog is putting Apple and Google's mobile ecosystems under the microscope.

The Competition and Markets Authority is carrying out a market study into both tech giant's mobile ecosystems, over concerns that they hold market power which is harming users and other businesses.

The CMA has launched a market study into mobile ecosystems in the UK looking at competition in

1: the supply of mobile devices and op systems
2: the distribution of mobile apps
3: the supply of mobile browsers/browser engines
4: Apple/Google in competition between app developers

Looks like Apple will be the next company given "strategic market status" to be regulated by the CMA, for iOS / the App Store, and probably Google's Android added too. https://t.co/6LalGSXOs8

Apple and Google control the major gateways through which people download apps or browse the web on their mobiles - whether they want to shop, play games, stream music or watch TV. We're looking into whether this could be creating problems for consumers and the businesses that want to reach people through their phones.

Our ongoing work into big tech has already uncovered some worrying trends and we know consumers and businesses could be harmed if they go unchecked. That's why we're pressing on with launching this study now, while we are setting up the new Digital Markets Unit, so we can hit the ground running by using the results of this work to shape future plans."

12.17pm BST

Seasonally adjusted goods trade exports decreased by over 700 million in Aprilhttps://t.co/qBQa3qa1By #CSOIreland #Ireland #Trade #IrishTrade #Exports #Imports #Businessstatistics #IrishBusiness #BusinessNews #Brexit pic.twitter.com/2zPbTXZqAC

12.09pm BST

A French court has ordered home furnishings giant Ikea to pay a 1 million euros fine (861,000) over a campaign to spy on union representatives, employees and some unhappy customers in France.

Two former Ikea France executives were convicted and fined over the scheme and given suspended prison sentences. Among the other 13 defendants in the high-profile trial, some were acquitted and others given suspended sentences.

Abel Amara, a former Ikea employee who helped expose the wrongdoing, called the ruling a big step in defense of the citizen....It makes me glad that there is justice in France."

12.05pm BST

Ireland's goods imports from Britain fell 20% year-on-year in April, while exports to Britain rose over 40% compared with a year earlier, new trade data shows.

The largest decreases were in the imports of Food and live animals and Chemicals and related products.

The largest increases were in the exports of Chemicals and related products and Machinery and transport equipment.

Ireland's goods imports from Britain fell 20% year-on-year in April, data showed on Tuesday, the least severe monthly decline since new post-Brexit trade barriers came into force that meant imports were down 39% for the first four months of 2021.

Irish goods exports to Britain rose by 42% year-on-year in April, and are now up 7% so far this year compared to the same period in 2020. Britain has delayed the introduction of a range of post-Brexit import checks on EU goods until later this year.

11.36am BST

In other trade news...EU goods imports from the United Kingdom have fallen by over 27% in the first four months of 2021, compared to January-April 2020, according to the latest data from Eurostat.

That's a much steeper fall than for other major trading partners, as the table below shows.

Euro area trade in goods surplus 10.9 bn in April, 13.0 bn surplus for EU https://t.co/286JaYtwvf pic.twitter.com/JIPIesMatJ

10.58am BST

Green Party MP Caroline Lucas is also concerned about the environmental consequences, and the impact to farmers.

Sunday - PM signs G7 pledge for more climate action

Monday - PM agrees Australia trade deal with coal-loving leader with no plan for net zero
& sells out UK farmers in the process https://t.co/QYbZgxfeK0

10.43am BST

Joe Spencer, partner at accountancy firm MHA MacIntyre Hudson, is concerned that UK farmers will be hurt by the gradual end to tariffs" on Australian food imports such as beef.

Unfavourable trade deals" will only add more pressure on farms as they struggle to adjust to Brexit, he warns (as the cap on tariff-free imports to protect British farmers announced today lasts for 15 years).

UK farmers are increasingly being asked to offer protection for the environment, while the government is withdrawing support to them at the same time. Unfavourable trade deals - such as this latest one in negotiation with Australia - will only add more pressure to the sector which is working hard to move in one direction while, one might suggest, having the rug pulled out from under it at the same time.

Farmers are right to be wary. Trade deals of the sort the government has negotiated with Australia offer few advantages to the sector and maybe only small benefits to consumers (in terms of lower prices). The sector (and the general public) will be paying close attention to the way these trade deals ensure food safety and livestock welfare standards.

Australia's export markets are in Asia, and with the growth of the middle class in China an avalanche of cheaper imports is unlikely to find it ways to the UK. The bad news is that the deal probably won't benefit UK producers much through increased access to the Australian market.

However, even if the Australian deal considered in isolation will not be a huge problem it is part and parcel of a series of pressures farmers are now facing, many caused by government policy. We know the changes to direct financial support following Brexit and the transition to the UK Agricultural Policy will impact the bottom line for many producers, so further pressure on prices from trade deals (as the government hopes for more) will not offer farmers the opportunity to grow and reinvest."

10.26am BST

Here's trade expert David Henig of the European Centre For International Political Economy on the limits of the UK-Australia trade agreement:

So far the details of the UK-Australia trade deal announced today have been nothing we didn't already know. Hence the relatively low key announcement. There had to be an announcement as the Australian PM was here. But it doesn't feel like negotiations are in fact complete.

Also watch out for the opportunity cost of new trade deals. Australia got their top asks from the UK - agriculture. The UK didn't have a top ask of Australia, hence why none is being flagged. If we find one in the future, too late, we already gave them what they wanted.

Watching the UK-Australia discussion evolve this morning, important we add that the estimated 0.02% UK GDP gain is based on heroic assumptions not even close to being achieved in any previous deal. 0.00% is a more realistic estimate.

Second important note - for Australia this is about at least equalising tariff free access with New Zealand to the UK - at the lowest possible cost. Aus tariff free WTO quotas on lamb and beef were very low. Job therefore done.

Huge difference between a single market, as Australia has with New Zealand or we used to have with the EU, and a tariff reducing agreement. The first is close to free trade, the second is still a world of trade barriers.

Oh and for the slow class that keeps talking of current government policy being free trade - global tariffs are fairly insignificant for countries like Australia and UK, so their removal has similarly insignificant effects on eg prices. You may get slightly wider choice.

10.03am BST

As rumoured overnight, the UK and Australia have agreed the broad terms of a free trade deal.

It's the first agreement negotiated from scratch after Brexit. And according to Boris Johnson, it marks a new dawn in the UK's relationship with Australia, underpinned by our shared history and common values".

In a statement setting out the benefits of the agreement, the government said it will eliminate tariffs on Australian favourites like Jacob's Creek and Hardys wines, swimwear and confectionery, as well as increasing choice for British consumers and saving households up to 34m annually.

Downing Street added the deal will help distillers by scrapping tariffs of up to 5% on Scotch whisky, while car manufacturers in the Midlands and the North of England will see tariffs of up to 5% cut.

Our new free-trade agreement opens fantastic opportunities for British businesses and consumers, as well as young people wanting the chance to work and live on the other side of the world.

This is global Britain at its best - looking outwards and striking deals that deepen our alliances and help ensure every part of the country builds back better from the pandemic."

Though details have yet to emerge, some official estimates say the agreement could add 500m ($705.7 million) to British economic output over the long term - a small fraction for an economy worth around 2 trillion pounds.

So, the UK-Australia trade deal will add somewhere between 0.01% and 0.02% of GDP over 15 years whilst harming British farmers and increasing our import/export carbon emissions. Great deal, Boris. Great deal.

NEW: UK announced new tariff free trade deal agreement with Australia. After row over farming, "British farmers will be protected by a cap on tariff-free imports for 15 years, using tariff rate quotas and other safeguards".
- "first major trade deal negotiated from scratch" 1/

It will be "eliminating tariffs on all UK goods"
It "means iconic British products like cars, Scotch whisky, biscuits and ceramics will be cheaper to sell into Oz" 2/

Also looks like exemption on Brits doing farm work to get extension on two year work holiday visas.
"Brits under the age of 35 will be able to travel and work in Australia more freely, opening exciting opportunities for young people". Oz farmers employ 10,000 Brits youngsters 3/

Johnson says: This is global Britain at its best - looking outwards and striking deals that deepen our alliances and help ensure every part of the country builds back better from the pandemic."

No 10 says deal will mean cheaper Oz wine, as will "eliminate tariffs on Jacob's Creek and Hardys wines, swimwear and confectionery, boosting choice for British consumers and saving households up to 34 million a year"

9.38am BST

UK unemployment fell for the fourth month in a row in April as businesses took on more staff in response to the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions.

The Office for National Statistics said the jobs market showed further signs of recovery as non-essential shops and hospitality venues were allowed to open outdoors across the UK.

UK unemployment rate falls again as firms hire more staff https://t.co/t2JufQEZcM

Unemployment is expected to rise as furlough is made less generous from July and closed at end Sept. Businesses warn 21 June delay will make this worse.

But job losses nowhere near worst forecasts of last year. Reason enough for Sunak to reject a furlough extension?

9.29am BST

Boohoo has reported further strong sales growth on the back of the online shopping boom seen during the pandemic, as it launched a new Debenhams digital department store".

9.23am BST

European stock markets are on track for their best run in two years.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is up 1.4 points at 459.7 (+0.3%) this morning, setting it up for its eighth daily rise in a row - which hasn't happened since April 2019.

European shares rose for an eighth straight session as optimism around a speedy economic recovery across the region lifted industrial stocks, while technology shares tracked an overnight jump in their U.S. peers.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.3% by 0715 GMT in its longest winning streak in more than two years as investors also bet on global central banks keeping the stimulus taps open.

Europe: Shares set longest winning streak since 2019 on recovery optimism https://t.co/4YuD2Jx8ug pic.twitter.com/lZgPCiw1C0

9.09am BST

The London stock market seems to be shrugging off the delay to the final easing of lockdown in England.

The FTSE 100 index is currently up 16 points or 0.2% at 7162 points, after ending Monday's session at a pandemic closing high.

The week kicked off with major US indices renewing record on the back of an increased interest in technology stocks on broad conviction that the low interest rates and the cheap liquidity is here to stay despite improved recovery prospects, encouraging jobs data and overshooting inflation.

Investors trust Jay Powell more than they trust their own father in that he won't remove the liquidity rug from under their feet.

8.58am BST

Chris Goulden, Director, Impact & Evidence at Youth Futures Foundation, has spotted a very concerning rise in long-term unemployment among the under-25s:

Since Feb 2020, the largest falls in employment were in: accommodation/food services, young people, and London. These 3 groups have also seen the largest monthly increases but still well below pre-pandemic levels https://t.co/8fKWswewxc

Most concerning is the levels of long-term unemployment for young people - of those unemployed, 28% of 16-17 and 43% of 18-24 year olds have been so for over 6 months (and 15% of unemployed 16-17 year olds have been for over 12 months) pic.twitter.com/S3eB5cSNB0

A deeper problem is being masked - hundreds of thousands of young people who are still on furlough face yet more time out of the labour market, many more will be leaving education and looking for work and those young people furthest from the labour market risk getting stuck out of education and employment in the long term.

As we approach the one year anniversary of the Prime Minister promising an Opportunity Guarantee' for young people, we need to see targeted support to address those young people worst affected by the crisis."

8.42am BST

Tony Wilson, Institute Director at IES, is concerned that the number of long-term unemployed is rising, despite the rise in vacancies and the struggle to hire staff in some sectors.

Today's figures confirm that the jobs market is making a strong recovery.

Payrolled employment added nearly 200 thousand in the month of May alone, its fastest rise on record, while May saw nearly 900 thousand vacancies in the economy, one of its highest figures ever. However despite this, and continued recruitment problems in a number of industries, there are still more than twice as many unemployed people still chasing every vacancy and long-term unemployment has reached a five year high of over half a million.

Today's jobs stats: Record breaking jobs growth in PAYE jobs, +200k in month of May (graph below - the elephant recovery?)
Good news: ~900k vacancies, youth employment improving.
Bad news: long-term unempl hits five year high, need to do much better in helping u/e find jobs. 1/ pic.twitter.com/PbmnyuvvPn

Here's the good news, showing now how PAYE jobs growth in 'recovery' (since Nov) is now more evenly shared across ages.
Young people nearly half (46%) of growth in single month of May - good news.
Still half a million lower than pre crisis though - so moer to do 2/ pic.twitter.com/xzqZkv9F9C

And a remarkable stat from the PAYE 'flows' data - more than 800k people started a new job in May alone, the first time that's EVER happened (this series is partially estimated and tends to be revised down, but still v positive - signs of getting back to normal in jobs mkt) 3/ pic.twitter.com/7yvmP91PX6

And vacancy stats suggest more may be to come - with nearly 900k in single month of May, one of highest figures on record. Tallies with online data from @adzuna, showing vacancies now well above same time in 2019. 4/ pic.twitter.com/dTZZ90oULd

So if that's the good news, what's the bad? Well it's the usual thing. Long-term unemployment is now above half a million for first time in five years, with those aged 25-49 ticking up this month.
Even as firms struggle to fill jobs, more people becoming long-term unemployed. 5/ pic.twitter.com/XjKNZpKud4

And for all the talk of 'where have the workers gone?' we've still got well over twice as many unemployed as there are vacancies - compared with just 1.6 before the crisis. We need to do much, much better at helping people who want jobs to find jobs that want people 6/

8.25am BST

UK redundancies have dropped back to pre-Covid-19 levels, in another sign that the jobs market is improving.

The ONS reports that redundancies dropped to 4 per thousands employees in the February-April quarter, a record fall of 7.1 per thousand (after surging to record highs last year).

In many ways, these figures confirm what we already know - recovery appears to be in full swing and confidence is returning.

Seeing redundancies return to pre-Covid levels suggests that for the bulk of the economy most of the pain has passed. Unemployment continues to fall, buoyed by strong demand for labour, and most industries are showing vacancies above pre-pandemic levels.

Employers thinking longer-term might recognise that now there is a golden opportunity to invest in skills - especially apprenticeships for young people - to offset the rising threat of labour and skill shortages.

Government has a role here and must reform the apprenticeship levy to make it fit for purpose ensuring it does what it set out to do - namely increase the volume of training taking place.

8.06am BST

Today's data shows that the UK's market is improving, says Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce:

@ons data confirms the UK jobs market is improving, payroll employment up 197,000 in May, the sixth successive monthly rise, as restrictions eased further in the month.

UK unemployment rate down to 4.7% in the 3 months to April 2021, the lowest rate since Jun-Aug 2020. pic.twitter.com/E5SuC2DJ9V

Latest labour market figures out this morning

Short and full briefing from L&W coming soon..@Stephen_EvansUK shares his views on what the positive data is telling us about recovery and damage repair https://t.co/8vJWjIyABC pic.twitter.com/FT0j4CYUuP

Strong labour market figs, with payroll employment up 200k as economy reopened. But extension of restrictions likely to slow recovery & long-term unemployment up 50% in a year. Crisis isn't over & much more to do to link people to growing vacancies. https://t.co/Rf711VD6Rt

Latest Pay As You Earn Real-Time Information out this morning shows continued recovery in payroll employment across Scotland as restrictions ease, but look at the North East! Still well down on pre-pandemic level (100 = each region's level of payroll employment in Feb 2020). pic.twitter.com/Ew88i4qgpw

Strong growth in UK job vacancies... At its highest level since January - March 2020... pic.twitter.com/2sHuUkUoQP

8.00am BST

Minister for Employment Mims Davies MP says:

There are real signs of recovery in the labour market with tens of thousands of Work Coaches working hard to support people across our growing network of Jobcentres to help build their skills, get interview ready, and find their next roles - with over three quarters of a million vacancies out there.

Our Plan for Jobs is working - creating new opportunities and boosting job prospects right across the country - as jab by jab we lay the foundations to build back better."

7.58am BST

Rachel Reeves MP, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, says the jobs recovery can be fragile, with company payrolls still half a million below pre-Covid levels despite surging in May.

She urges the government to provide more support to the industries which will be hardest hit by a four-week delay to reopening (and which face a tapering in business rates relief and the end of a moratorium on rent arrears).

Today's figures, laid alongside the Government's mistakes and delays, show us just how fragile our jobs recovery can be.

The lack of clarity in the Government's announcement yesterday on how they will support workers and businesses given the delay in their own roadmap - a result of their incompetence protecting our borders from new variants - is as unsurprising as it is disappointing.

7.46am BST

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says:

Our Plan for Jobs is working - the latest forecasts for unemployment are around half of what was previously feared and the number of employees on payroll is at its highest level since April last year.

We understand the value of work and the distress caused by unemployment - that is why we are continuing to support people and jobs.

7.43am BST

Job vacancies have also risen as the UK economy reopened this spring, the ONS reports - passing pre-pandemic levels in May.

It says:

The number of job vacancies in March to May 2021 was 758,000, only 27,000 below the level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in January to March 2020; most industries have recovered to show vacancies above pre-pandemic levels.

The strongest quarterly increase was in accommodation and food services. In May 2021, the experimental monthly vacancies data, and the experimental Adzuna online vacancies data both surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

UK job adverts on Adzuna are now above pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing, logistics and warehousing are registering the strongest growth. But Adzuna data also show that graduate vacancies are currently running 14% below their pre-crisis levels. https://t.co/ozqdG0S3W1 pic.twitter.com/kVKI1L3sqN

7.30am BST

7.20am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The UK's unemployment rate has fallen again as more people returned to work as pandemic restrictions were eased.

The number of payrolled employees has increased for the sixth consecutive month, up by 197,000 in May 2021 to 28.5 million.

It is however 553,000 below levels seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Since February 2020, the largest falls in payrolled employment have been in the accommodation and food services sector, people aged under 25 years, and people living in London.

#Breaking The number of UK workers on payrolls rose by 197,000 between April and May but has fallen by 553,000 since the pandemic struck, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said pic.twitter.com/nUZnUPZHlZ

Headline indicators for the UK labour market for February to April 2021 show

employment was at 75.2%
unemployment was at 4.7%
economic inactivity was at 21.0%

https://t.co/Hensi83rYy pic.twitter.com/ekr8CTbTBO

UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) announced.

Forecast: 4.9%

Actual: 5.6%#gbpusd #GBPJPY pic.twitter.com/1j7fEHCnmC

A Department for International Trade spokesperson confirmed that the broad terms had been struck on Monday night, after Boris Johnson and the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, had dinner at Downing Street.

Farmers have previously raised concerns about the potential of a zero-tariff and zero-quota trade deal with Australia which could undercut them by cheap imports, affecting the viability of their business.

Diplomats and officials confirmed on Monday night that two days of intensive negotiations in Brussels had left the EU and the Biden administration on the cusp of confirming a deal on subsidy rules for Airbus and Boeing.

The breakthrough is set to be finalised on Tuesday at US president Joe Biden's first EU-US summit meeting in Brussels. People close to the talks said that the governments of Airbus's three home countries in the EU - Germany, France, and Spain - were being consulted on an agreement that could be confirmed on Tuesday morning if there were no last-minute obstacles.

EU and US poised to resolve Airbus-Boeing trade dispute after 17 years - FThttps://t.co/HKj0zkauke

European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7175 +0.40%#DAX 15750 +0.48%#CAC 6634 +0.27%#AEX 733 +0.46%#MIB 25813 +0.21%#IBEX 9318 +0.40%#OMX 2294 +0.43%#STOXX 4154 +0.51%#IGOpeningCall

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