‘At first I thought, this is crazy’: the real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war

Three years ago, a small group of academics at a German university launched an unprecedented collaboration with the military - using novels to try to pinpoint the world's next conflicts. Are they on to something?

As the car with the blacked-out windows came to a halt in a sidestreet near Tubingen's botanical gardens, keen-eyed passersby may have noticed something unusual about its numberplate. In Germany, the first few letters usually denote the municipality where a vehicle is registered. The letter Y, however, is reserved for members of the armed forces.

Military men are a rare, not to say unwelcome, sight in Tubingen. A picturesque 15th-century university town that brought forth great German minds including the philosopher Hegel and the poet Friedrich Holderlin, it is also a modern stronghold of the German Green party, thanks to its left-leaning academic population. In 2018, there was growing resistance on campus against plans to establish Europe's leading artificial intelligence research hub in the surrounding area: the involvement of arms manufacturers in Tubingen's cyber valley", argued students who occupied a lecture hall that year, brought shame to the university's intellectual tradition.