Rishi Sunak has been running the economy on autopilot but needs to change course | Richard Partington

Ground of pandemic is shifting, so forecast of post-Covid consumer spending boom could be muted

England is on the move. Despite rising infections and the race between coronavirus vaccines and variants back in full swing, there has been a distinct shift in tone from ministers over the past week about the English exit from pandemic restrictions.

For several weeks the government has been watching and waiting, poring over Covid-19 data in the hope the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken by the vaccination programme. So far, the news is encouraging despite rising concern as the Delta variant drives a fresh wave in the pandemic.

Further growth in infections will put the recovery on the back foot, regardless of whether restrictions are relaxed