IMF warns supply disruptions and inflation threaten recovery; UK vacancies and payrolls at record– as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

• Latest: IMF trims growth forecast as supply chain problems build
• Inflation shock could derail recovery, and UK at risk
• IMF calls for rich countries to fulfil promises on vaccines and climate

Earlier:

• UK unemployment dipped again in June-August...payrolls hit record high
• Economists: jobs report could prompt rate rise
• Vacancies at record level over 1 million
• Pay growth slowed...but estimate of underlying earnings rises

Jonathan Reynolds MP, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, points out that the UK's long-term unemployment total (those out of work for at least a year) hasn't improved:

Long term unemployment remains persistent and the Government's Plan for Jobs has done nothing to alleviate supply shortages or prepare for the future.

Families and businesses are facing an energy crisis, shortages and price rises because of this Government's poor decisions and lack of planning. And now working people are being hammered by tax hikes and cuts to Universal Credit.

The distortions from the furlough scheme and the change in the composition of employment that have boosted average earnings growth have now started to ease. The 3myy rate fell from 8.3% in July to 7.3% in August. But the ONS said that excluding those distortions, underlying wage growth accelerated from a range of 3.6-5.1% in July to 4.1-5.6%.

That may fuel some of the concerns at the Bank of England that the rise in inflation is becoming more persistent, even though the outlook for overall economic activity has weakened since August.

The end of the furlough scheme will probably help, but we're increasingly of the view that labour shortages will last at least until the middle of next year.