Reforming Lawson or austerity Osborne: how will Sunak’s budget go?

A chancellor bent on trimming the deficit will face opposition from MPs, business and more this week

For the past 20 months Rishi Sunak has been fighting to limit the economic damage from Covid-19. This week marks the chancellor's first real opportunity to set out proposals for the rest of the parliament, and demonstrate to backbench Tory MPs that the Treasury's tax and spending plans support the ambitions of his neighbour in No 10.

There is a danger for Sunak that many of his supporters will turn on him if a harsh, joyless budget is seen as crushing much of the goodwill the Tories are still enjoying from the speedy rollout of vaccines earlier this year. In the summer Boris Johnson threatened to demote his chancellor as punishment for daring to challenge the government's handling of the pandemic. With no replacement on hand, it was an empty threat, but Liz Truss, newly promoted to foreign secretary, is ready to fill the chancellor's shoes should he stumble. These are the issues now facing Sunak as he looks forward, and back over his shoulder.