UK economy’s stagnation increases chances of recession

Analysis: Fall in GDP in April also increases probability of 0.25-point increase in interest rates this week

• UK economy shrinks as cost of living crisis bites

Stagflation has two elements to it: weak growth and rapidly rising prices. Britain already has the inflation; it is now getting the stagnation.

To be sure, the main reason behind the 0.3% fall in gross domestic product in April was the scaling back in NHS Covid 19 testing and vaccinations, which alone shaved 0.5 percentage points off growth.