Pupil numbers in England set to shrink by almost 1 million in 10 years

Government forecast anticipates 12% decline, mainly due to fewer births, with surplus school places in years ahead

England's school population is set to shrink by almost a million children over the next 10 years, according to the government's latest data, raising the prospect of surplus places and school closures in some areas of the country in the years ahead.

Department for Education figures reveal that predicted pupil numbers, already in marked decline according to earlier modelling, have had to be revised down further in line with projections of fewer births than expected.