Article 666EX The Transistor of 2047: Expert Predictions

The Transistor of 2047: Expert Predictions

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janrinok
from SoylentNews on (#666EX)

Arthur T Knackerbracket writes:

What will the device be like on its 100th anniversary?

Expect transistors to be even more varied than they are now, says one expert. Just as processors have evolved from CPUs to include GPUs, network processors, AI accelerators, and other specialized computing chips, transistors will evolve to fit a variety of purposes. "Device technology will become application domain-specific in the same way that computing architecture has become application domain-specific," says H.-S. Philip Wong, an IEEE Fellow, professor of electrical engineering at Stanford University, and former vice president of corporate research at TSMC.

Despite the variety, the fundamental operating principle-the field effect that switches transistors on and off-will likely remain the same, suggests Suman Datta, an IEEE Fellow, professor of electrical and computer at Georgia Tech, and director of the multi-university nanotech research center ASCENT. This device will likely have minimum critical dimensions of 1 nanometer or less, enabling device densities of 10 trillion per square centimeter, says Tsu-Jae King Liu, an IEEE Fellow, dean of the college of engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of Intel's board of directors.

Experts seem to agree that the transistor of 2047 will need new materials and probably a stacked or 3D architecture, expanding on the planned complementary field-effect transistor (CFET, or 3D-stacked CMOS). [For more on the CFET, see "Taking Moore's Law to New Heights."] And the transistor channel, which now runs parallel to the plane of the silicon, may need to become vertical in order to continue to increase in density, says Datta.

[...] AMD senior fellow Richard Schultz, suggests that the main aim in developing these new devices will be power. "The focus will be on reducing power and the need for advanced cooling solutions," he says. "Significant focus on devices that work at lower voltages is required."

Experts say that the heart of most devices, the transistor channel region, will still be silicon, or possibly silicon-germanium-which is already making inroads-or germanium. But in 2047 many chips may use semiconductors that are considered exotic today. These could include oxide semiconductors like indium gallium zinc oxide; 2D semiconductors, such as the metal dichalcogenide tungsten disulfide; and one-dimensional semiconductors, such as carbon nanotubes. Or even "others yet to be invented," says Imec's Samavedam.

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