Election 2015: Ashcroft poll says Clegg on course to lose his seat – live
As fresh polling shows Clegg is heading for defeat in Sheffield, follow the latest from the campaign trail with Andrew Sparrow and the Guardian politics team
- Ashcroft poll: Clegg on course to lose seat at election
- Miliband pledges to end 'epidemic of zero-hours contracts'
- ONS: UK productivity growth is weakest since second world war
- Election photo highlights: beer, dogs and rosettes on day three
- 100 business chiefs sign letter backing government's economic policies
- Lunchtime summary
- Afternoon summary
5.33am AEST
On the issue of productivity, Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott writes that Britain is going backwards in terms of economic effectiveness, a fact David Cameron and George Osborne do not wish to dwell upon.
In reality, the Government's employment and productivity record are the two sides of the same coin. The economy could have had a better productivity record since 2010 but only if fewer people had been employed. Why? Because productivity is a measure of national output divided in one of two ways: by the number of people employed or by the amount those people produce per hour.
Output per hour worked is the better measure. Judged by this yardstick, productivity in the UK is 27-31% below that in Germany, France and the US. The gap with the rest of the G7 is 17 percentage points - the widest since 1992. Only Japan among the leading western industrial nations has a worse record.
5.23am AEST
Click through to watch Labour Peer Lord Levy on Sky News asking what the Telegraph signatories' annual income is.
5.19am AEST
Channel 4 News just interviewed Norman Pickavance, former HR director at Morrisons, and Lord Bilimoria, entrepreneur and cross-bench peer, about today's Telegraph letter.
Lord Bilimoria, one of the signatories of the letter, said there are a lot of people on that list who are Labour supporters who signed because they think the cut in corporation tax is the best thing this government has done. He said more competitive businesses create more employment, which means more taxes and more funding for public services. He added that Labour's policies of increasing taxes and borrowing are worrying to businesses.
5.04am AEST
YouGov have redesigned their website for the election. Have a look, it's quite sleek.
4.58am AEST
Nick Clegg has refused to rule out cutting the 40p tax threshold, one day after shadow chancellor Ed Balls came under pressure to do the same. While the Lib Dems have ruled out increasing VAT, national insurance and income tax, Clegg declined three times to rule out lowering the 40p tax threshold. As my colleague Frances Perraudin reports:
On Wednesday Clegg declined three times to rule out lowering the threshold for the 40p tax, saying that his party's priority was raising the amount you have to earn before you start paying income tax.
"Because that means that even people who are 40p taxpayers, they are certainly no worse off and in some cases they are better off because the raising of the point at which they start paying income tax far outweighs what tax they might pay in the 40p bracket," he said.
4.42am AEST
On Sky News just now, Treasury minister David Gauke said a cut in corporation tax sends a signal that we [Britain] are open for business, and to reverse that is extremely dangerous. He added that a competitive tax rate is good for workers because it means more investment and more jobs.
Labour's Chuka Umunna - who appeared on the show for a few seconds before his connection cut off - dismissed the Telegraph letter as "a coordinated effort between the Conservatives and business leaders published in a Conservative supporting paper".
4.36am AEST
The Independent revealed earlier that one in five of the business leaders who signed the pro-Tory letter in the Telegraph were given honours by David Cameron and one third are Tory donors.
Among the 103 signatories of the letter, published on the front page of the Daily Telegraph this morning, are four Conservative members of the House of Lords - all ennobled by David Cameron.
The Prime Minister also doled out 18 MBEs, OBEs, CBEs and knighthoods to signatories of the letter over the last parliament.
4.16am AEST
Labour have released their own 100 signatory letter about economic policy. Published in The Mirror, the letter is signed "by shelf stackers, firefighters and retired farm hands", as well as by business owners and public figures such as Wayne Hemingway, Trevor Beattie and Peter Duncan, the paper's political editor Jason Beattie reveals.
Letter to Mirror signed by 100 people backing Labour. Includes cafe workers, business leaders and celebrities #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/88lJqGJV2H
Dear Sir,
We all care about Britain's economy and we all have a stake in the future.
More #ge2015 letters than the opening scene of Harry Potter
4.03am AEST
Is the Telegraph letter an endorsement of the coalition rather than the Tories?
Senior business figure tell me at least 1 signatory of Telegraph letter is a Lib Dem and letter wording endorses the coalition not Tories
Some Labour folk baffled why Tories deployed businessmen letter today. Gets drowned out by ITV debate tomorrow and Easter, then forgotten?
4.01am AEST
A preview of tomorrow night's leaders debate from Green party leader Natalie Bennett... are you excited yet?
.@natalieben previews the big #tvdebate taking place tomorrow night #leadersdebate pic.twitter.com/69yO4vf19J
3.58am AEST
Zac Goldsmith, the former Conservative MP for Richmond Park & North Kingston (remember - no Parliament, no MPs) is due to give a lecture at the RSA in central London tomorrow calling for citizens to be given more power and for MPs to experiment with direct democracy over the next parliament.
In a statement I've just received, Goldsmith says:
A significant cause of political disengagement is that our politics has spectacularly failed to adapt to the modern world. I believe we have reached a pivotal moment in our history where our democracy must evolve to survive, as it has had to at other times in the past.
3.50am AEST
Our political correspondent Rowena Mason has sent me this report from the Britvic plant in Leeds where George Osborne has just given a speech. Note that Osborne says the only way to end zero-hour contracts is by creating more jobs.
George Osborne has admitted he would find it "very difficult" to live on a zero-hour contract, even though the Conservatives do not think they should be banned or further restricted.
The chancellor also acknowledged that the contracts are a sign of job insecurity for workers, but said they were not as bad having no work at all.
3.42am AEST
Some of you are saying you can't find the BBC piece on economists claiming the coalition's austerity policies have been bad for growth and jobs. Here's a link to the BBC post and here is the original Centre for Macroeconomics survey.
3.28am AEST
The Conservatives and Lib Dems are currently attacking Labour for employing workers on zero-hour contracts themselves.
Revealed:Labour councils behind 21,798 zero hours contracts.1st on list: Doncaster Council- 300 staff on ZHCs in Miliband's own back yard
Staff on zero hours contracts at Labour councils:738- Wolverhampton, 442- Liverpool, & 20,040 contracts used by 37 other Lab councils
For Labour, it's a case of "do as I say not as I do" on zero-hours contracts pic.twitter.com/5ToEovUqyN
Statement from Doncaster Council on zero hours contracts pic.twitter.com/Clp5PHdCrK
3.23am AEST
Though Sky New's Sophy Ridge reported that Conservative Party Co Chairman Andrew Feldman is understood to have helped organise today's letter from business leaders in the Telegraph, and has been emailing business leaders asking them to add their signatures today, the Tories are not admitting to this. Tory cabinet minister Sajid Javid also dodged the question earlier. But, as my colleague Rowena Mason points out to me, George Osborne today toured two places - Britvic in Leeds and Marstons in Wolverhampton - whose chairman Gerald Corbett and chief executive Ralph Findlay both signed the letter. Both visits were organised before the letter appeared in the Telegraph last night.
3.16am AEST
Good afternoon, Nadia here. I'm taking over from Andrew for the rest of the day, so do stay tuned for all of this evening's political developments. I'm on Twitter @nadiakhomami and I'll be reading your comments below the line as well, so you can let me know if you think there's something I've missed.
3.06am AEST
Corporation tax is the main tax on business. Increase it and you increase the tax on investment on growth and on jobs. It is as simple as that. The policy decisions you take on business in the Treasury have a direct impact on people's lives. If you start to hike business taxes and confidence is undermined then projects are shelved and investment doesn't come here to this country, you create an anti-business environment that leads to lost jobs, higher unemployment and families without the security of work. These are not abstract economic risks, they are an assault on everyday working people. They are concrete reasons why we have 36 days to save Britain's economic recovery.
2.51am AEST
Wouter den Haan, professor of economics at the LSE and a co-director of the Centre for Macroeconomics, told BBC News this afternoon that it was "rare" for macroeconomics to agree as much as they did on the proposition that the coalition's austerity policies had been bad for growth and jobs. (See 9.18am and 10.03am.)
We asked our panel members whether they agree that the austerity plans of the coalition government had a positive effect on the economy in the UK. And the result is that most people disagreed with that statement. If you leave out the people who neither agreed or disagreed, 81% disagreed or strongly disagreed. It is rare that macroeconomists are that unanimous about something.
The UK economy, even though it is recovering, is still doing very poorly. If you look at where we are relative to pre-crisis trends, we're doing very badly. Wages are low, productivity is low. We have a fragile recovery.
2.39am AEST
My colleague Henry McDonald has more news from Northern Ireland on what the DUP might or might not do in the event of a hung parliament.
Democratic Unionist MPs will not back any government after May 7 that is also captive to the SNP's separatist agenda, first minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson warned today.
The DUP leader said his MPs would not support any administration that relied on the SNP or Plaid Cymru so long as these parties were advancing policies to break up the union.
2.29am AEST
The Fawcett Society is encourage people to report examples of sexism in election coverage. This is from Belinda Phipps, the Fawcett chair.
We see more coverage of the leaders' wives and what female politicians look like than reporting of the views and campaigns of women in politics.
The media need to get real. More than half of the population of the UK is women and women can, and will, influence who forms the next government.
2.21am AEST
Nick Clegg told reporters in East Dunbartonshire that he agreed with the signatories of the letter to the Daily Telegraph (see 8.46am) about the need for stability. But it was the Tories who were a threat to that stability, he argued.
I read the letter carefully, it talks about what this coalition government has done, and I think the signatories to the letter are completely right in saying that about the last thing that this country needs, now that we're emerging from this long shadow of the economic crash in 2008, is a great lurch in one direction or another.
However I think they are very wrong in thinking that the Conservative party are somehow the guarantors of that stability.
2.12am AEST
Here are two more pictures from the campaign trail today.
2.02am AEST
In his speech in Glasgow Ed Balls said a vote for the SNP was a vote for continued austerity. He offered three reasons why. My colleague Libby Brooks set them out in the preview story filed overnight.
He also said that the government had failed to get rid of the deficit because of its failure on productivity and living standards.
In this parliament, weak earnings growth has led to tax receipts falling short.
National Insurance contributions in this parliament have been 27bn less than planned, while income tax revenues have fallen short by 70bn.
1.42am AEST
George Osborne is delivering a speech in West Yorkshire now. He says there are just 36 days left to save Britain's economic recovery.
George Osborne's obsession with hi-vis has gone too far. I've been forced into a fluorescent wristband for press conf pic.twitter.com/UJNHpkTmrd
1.36am AEST
Labour claims that its Martin Freeman election broadcast is the most-seen party political broadcast online. It made the boast in a news release saying that it is beating the other parties in social media. Here are the key points.
1.21am AEST
Ed Balls was today accused of 'letting the cat out of the bag' on tax rises after leaving the door open to trapping more middle-class workers in the 40p tax rate.
In an interview the shadow chancellor repeatedly refused to rule out trying to balance the books by lowering the amount workers have to earn before they pay the higher income tax rate.
The cat's out of the bag- a Labour govt. would hit hardworking people with income tax rises - don't let it happen http://t.co/B7IhwZdFp2
Chancellor George Osborne said: "Ed Balls has let the cat out of the bag and confirmed a tax assault on middle earners. [1/5]
Ed Balls was clear, and Labour's position is clear: we want fewer people paying the 40p tax rate. We want to ease the burden on working families. Ed's words make that very clear.
12.47am AEST
Here's a Guardian video with an excerpt from Ed Miliband's zero-hours contracts speech.
12.45am AEST
Ed Balls is worried that the Guardian is going Nat.
Question from audience to @edballsmp: I'm worried ppl down south are taken in by SNP, "even people writing in the Guardian" #GE2015
12.43am AEST
Labour has released an analysis of the 103 business figures who have signed the letter to the Daily Telegraph criticising Labour's stance on business. It shows that 32 of them are Conservative donors, another two are Tory peers, and other 21 have links to the party, such as having served on a Conservative advisory board, or having signed a letter backing the party in the past.
12.16am AEST
Nick Clegg has now responded himself to the Ashcroft poll from Sheffield Hallam. He told reporters in Scotland:
I'm going to win. The poll, as it happens, didn't even mention the candidates names and our own polling where it does it always shows a significant uplift in our support. And just if you look at the way people have voted rather than what they've said to Lord Ashcroft since 2010 people in Sheffield has consistently voted Liberal Democrat. Of the 16 local elections we've had since 2010, we've won 14 since 2010, so I'm confident, not complacent, but confident we're going to win.
Clegg and Jo Swinson lunching with the Scottish lobby. Think Scottish political journalism may have a women problem. pic.twitter.com/oNVn3GYQwV
Clegg is visiting a soft play centre called 'Play Town' in East Dunbartonshire. pic.twitter.com/Fi10keczuf
12.13am AEST
Ed Balls is speaking in Glasgow now.
Ed Balls: the inconvenient truth for the SNP is that there is no consensus in Westminster over austerity #GE2015
Ed Balls: Tory cuts will mean 1.5bn cuts from block grant to Scotland in next 3 years
Ed Balls: nobody is suggesting we shd avoid what Nicola Sturgeon describes as 'sensible deficit reduction' #GE2015
12.05am AEST
Today it is an unprecedented intervention by some of the business leaders in the best-known business, large and small, in our country saying the Conservative long-term plan is working, generating jobs. That is a very clear message from business leaders who, like me, care about jobs and wealth creation and prosperity and livelihoods in our country.
I understand the reasons why businesses want lower business taxes. And we've actually got a plan to cut business taxes for small and medium sized businesses because we think that's where the priority lies.
But it does also go to the wider choice at this election. The Conservatives really believe that if all of the few corporations and individuals at the top are doing well, the wealth will magically trickle down for everybody else. We have tried that experiment over the last few years and it hasn't worked. We have seen falling living standards and falling wages and insecurity at work. I just have a different view about the way the country succeeds.
11.55pm AEST
Frances Perraudin is currently on the Lib Dem battle bus in Scotland. She has been speaking to a spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats and to Labour's candidate in Sheffield Hallam, Oliver Coppard.
A spokesman for Nick Clegg said the deputy prime minister is confident if winning Sheffield Hallam, but that he wasn't complacent. He pointed to the 16 local elections that have been held in th constituency since 2010, 14 of which have been won by his party.
During the 2014 local elections in Hallam, the party increased its share of the vote to 38.7%, compared to 23.6% for Labour and 10.7% for the Tories.
The Labour candidate added: "I'm pleased to seen that result, particularly from Lord Ashcroft, but it's not a huge surprise to us and really it doesn't make any difference to what we're doing.
"I know it's such a clichi(C), but frankly it's true, the only poll that matters is on 7 May and we'll just keep on knocking on doors and speaking to people about local issues until then."
11.51pm AEST
Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, told Radio Scotland today that the Lib Dems had shown they could work with a range of parties. As Libby Brooks reports, asked who he would prefer as coalition partner, he insisted it was up to the voters.
They have to determine the numbers. What we need to do is set down what our priorities are and but what we have shown is that we are prepared to work with other parties at local level. We've worked with the SNP in the Scottish government, we've worked with the Labour party in the Scottish government as well and the Conservatives at Westminster. What has been proven over the last five years is that you need the Liberal Democrats at the centre of government, to stop is veering off left or right with massive borrowing or massive cuts.
11.46pm AEST
David Brown Gear Systems in Huddersfield, the factory where Ed Miliband delivered his zero-hours contracts speech, is telling journalists that it is not commenting on whether it uses zero hours contracts itself.
11.38pm AEST
A spokesman for Nick Clegg has responded to the Ashcroft poll. He said:
We are confident of winning Sheffield Hallam. We are not complacent. We do not take any voters for granted. But we are confident of winning because Nick has been the local MP there for 10 years. He's got a record in Sheffield that we are happy to defend and that his constituents appreciate.
11.37pm AEST
In the light of the controversy about Labour's controls on migration mug, the Conservatives are now producing their own spoof Labour mugs.
11.19pm AEST
On the Daily Politics Vince Cable, the Lib Dem business secretary, dismissed the suggestion in the Ashcroft poll that Nick Clegg would lose his seat.
I'm absolutely certain Nick Clegg will win his seat and return as leader of the Liberal Democrats. One of the problems with the Lord Ashcroft polls is they don't actually name the candidates. I think when the full position is revealed he will be back and he will return as our party leader, I have no doubt about it.
11.18pm AEST
11.14pm AEST
Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London, was campaigning in Hendon this morning. He certainly provided good copy, but he also more or less set out his philosophy of Conservatism. He was in one nation Conservatism mode.
The Conservatives view the free market economy as a thing that is fundamentally a force for good that must be used and helped and encouraged to pay for the poorest, the neediest, for welfare, for hospitals.
I think that Labour regards the capitalist system as being something fundamentally malign that needs to be punished and checked and corrected.
It doesn't necessarily trickle down. What happens is that the state redistributes it and that is a very great and powerful thing. The state has to intervene but the state cannot redistribute money if there is no money being generated.
You broadly expect many rich people, as it were, to be supporting the Conservatives. It was the number of former Labour backers ... they are very significant people.
The main problem is not even that they would be the playthings of the SNP and that Ed Miliband would be peeking out of Alex Salmond's sporran like a baby kangaroo. The main problem is that Ed Miliband and the Labour Party are now more left-wing than they have ever been at any time since Michael Foot. They literally want to take us back to the 1970s with an orgy of regulation and state socialism.
I don't mind if he is so lazy he would rather not go downstairs to make a cup of tea shortly before binge-watching Breaking Bad or whatever he does. I mind very much that he is instinctively and intuitively hostile to the liberating policy of home ownership. We are the party of home ownership, of kitchen ownership. They are the party of hypocrisy and kitchen concealment.
10.55pm AEST
Here is some Twitter comment on the Ashcroft poll from journalists and commentators.
If Lab gain Sheffield Hallam, it will be largest majority overturned by major party (ever?). Clegg was 19,096 over Lab in 2010 @LordAshcroft
If Clegg loses his seat, but the LDs still have enough to enter coalition negotiations, just adds to the impending chaos of 2015 result
Despite Clegg on the brink, Ashcroft poll underlines how LDs defy uniform read-out from national polls. Wd still stop Tories taking 4 seats
Nick Clegg again predicted to lose Sheffield Hallam. His survival seems to depend on being rescued by tactical Tories & 6 pc Green vote.
Nick Clegg's fate lies in the hands of Tory voters' willingness to save him. Were you still up for Nick Clegg?
Problem for Clegg in Sheffield is that he's a sitting duck for tactical voting. Will 16% Tory vote + 7% UKIP forgo chance to remove him?
Health warning on 'Clegg facing defeat' poll in Sheffield: @LordAshcroft isn't naming candidates. Name recognition worth several points?
Not good for Clegg. But Tories giving him clear ride and he may get more from there.Lord Ashcroft does not name candidate. May help (or not)
10.48pm AEST
Nick Clegg is in Scotland.
Clegg flight to Scotland into a strong headwind. Make of that what you will.
Just arrived in Scotland with @nick_clegg -will ask him what makes of @LordAshcroft poll suggesting he could lose his seat!
Clegg media party bumps into @edballsmp at airport- he asks what Dpm up to today - "goldfish...? Hamsters?"
10.44pm AEST
10.40pm AEST
Here is some more from what Ed Miliband said at his Q&A in Huddersfield.
On the Telegraph letter, Miliband says it is 'absolutely' what you would expect in a general election campaign
#labour leader @Ed_Miliband says he isn't surprised business wants to see lower business taxes / in response to the Telegraph letter #ge2015
Miliband says he is preparing for the debates by getting out to talk to voters
10.37pm AEST
Lord Ashcroft's latest crop of constituency polls looks at eight Lib Dem battlegrounds. As often the case with constituency-level polling where the hypothesis of uniform swing doesn't apply, the results for each party are mixed.
Voting intention in the eight seats I have polled on the Lib Dem battleground. Full details on @ConHome at noon. pic.twitter.com/ddb0NdBb0N
10.21pm AEST
Lord Ashcroft has published a fresh batch of polling from constituencies. And the most interesting finding is that Nick Clegg is currently on course to lose in his own seat, Sheffield Hallam.
The upshot is that the Conservatives have consolidated their position in Camborne & Redruth, North Devon and St Austell & Newquay, where they lead by thirteen, seven and six points respectively. North Cornwall and Torbay, both tied in my previous polls, and St Ives, where I found a one-point Lib Dem lead, have all edged slightly in the Lib Dems' direction - though the two parties remain within the margin of error of each other in all three.
The Lib Dems have established a clear lead in Cambridge, where Labour were a point ahead in September, though things still look uncomfortable for Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, where I found him two points behind.
10.01pm AEST
Ed Miliband is definitely getting much better as a campaigner. In the past his performance as a communicator has been a bit hit-and-miss, but recently he seems be much more polished at finding the language to sell his message. There was a good example at the Huddersfield event. Labour had already announced the policy, but Miliband deployed two effective soundbites to sell it.
Less than a week ago you may have heard the prime minister say that he couldn't live on a zero-hours contract. Well, I couldn't live on a zero-hours contract either. But I've got simple principle; if it's not good enough for us, then it's not good enough for you, and it's not good enough for Britain. And that's the way I want to run the country.
I challenge anyone who criticises us today, I challenge anyone in the Conservative party, or elsewhere in business, to say, will you volunteer that you could live on a zero-hours contract? If you say you can live on a zero-hours contract, well, let's see you try. But I think the reality is that, whether it's me or David Cameron or other people in our society, I don't think it provides any kind of security for you and your family.
9.41pm AEST
Meanwhile, David Cameron and George Osborne have just arrived in a brewery in Wolverhampton
Cameron & Osborne arrive at Marston brewery in Wolverhampton. Local Tory Paul Uppal defending 691 majority pic.twitter.com/lvanbj70v5
9.39pm AEST
Miliband is now taking questions.
Q: What is your view on private healthcare?
I challenge anyone who criticises us to say ... to say will you volunteer that you could live on a zero-hours contract.
9.33pm AEST
Ed Miliband is speaking in Huddersfield now. (See 11.10am.)
He says he hopes he won't contribute to too much low productivity today.
We have to to end the epidemic of zero-hours contracts.
9.26pm AEST
Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, has been giving inteviews responding to the Telegraphy anti-Labour letter from business leaders. He has been making two points.
We've got almost five million businesses in our country. At best you could say the people who signed this represent 0.002% of them.
That was the one, I suppose ,that maybe did raise an eyebrow, in the sense that Sir Mike Rake, the current president of the CBI, has been very clear that they are a completely non-political organisation. He's been very scrupulous to not be seen to be supporting a particular political party. And I don't think you would have seen Sir Mike Rake signing this letter because he would have realised to claim impartiality, and sign a letter like this, would have been rendered any claim to independence rather untenable ... It is quite difficult to claim to be independent and impartial whilst at the same time being part of an exercise like this, organised and coordinated by the Conservative party in a Conservative-supporting newspaper.
9.10pm AEST
Ed Miliband will soon be speaking at a factory in Huddersfield.
Inside the venue in Huddersfield for Ed Miliband's speech on zero hours - no apparent lack of productivity here pic.twitter.com/MclDs6u5IV
At Ed Miliband's only campaign visit today: a gearbox factory in Colne Valley (Con maj 4,837) near Huddersfield. pic.twitter.com/fIK1B7NoZ1
The lectern is set. Ed Miliband will talk zero hours contracts in an hour at this Huddersfield factory. pic.twitter.com/LRkT5MW1wB
9.02pm AEST
Samantha Cameron, the prime minister's wife, is campaigning today. She has been visiting a school in Kent for pupils with special needs, in her first election appearance without her husband in tow.
He doesn't seem too nervous, but I have to say I'm very glad it's him and not me.
8.59pm AEST
A poll for TNS, conducted for The Herald's Election 2015 supplement (paywall), has found that 46% of voters in Britain believe greater SNP influence in Westminster would be negative and 22% positive for the UK as whole, Libby Brooks reports. Some 32% were unsure.
Suggesting that Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, was right in her conference speech last weekend to send a "message of friendship and solidarity" to voters in England and Wales, the poll also found that 29% of Labour supporters felt the SNP's influence would be positive, compared with just 13% of Conservatives.
8.56pm AEST
Ukip had a typically colourful press conference this morning on the EU at which the party's economics spokesman Patrick O'Flynn accused Brussels of trying to brainwash British young children through colouring books, Rowena Mason reports.
8.39pm AEST
The Office for National Statistics has released its latest productivity figures this morning. In a Guardian commentary, Larry Elliott says the statistics show that the government's productivity record is the worst for 70 years.
Here's an excerpt.
David Cameron has presided over an economy with the weakest productivity record of any government since the second world war, the Office for National Statistics said as it revealed output per workers fell again in the final three months of 2014.
In a separate blow to the government, two-thirds of leading UK economists said they believed George Osborne's austerity strategy had been bad for the economy.
8.25pm AEST
Red Box, the daily politics email briefing from the Times, contains some interesting polling on Thursday's leaders debate. It shows that people expect David Cameron to win.
8.18pm AEST
On BBC News just now Sajid Javid, the Conservative culture secretary, said the Telegraph anti-Labour letter from business leaders was highly significant.
Other commentators are more sceptical. Here are some of the more interesting tweets on it I've seen from journalists and commentators.
Difficult to imagine anything LESS unprecedented than hordes of FTSE 100 bosses supporting Conservative economic policy.
"Bosses support Tory economic policies". In other shocking news, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth edging towards supporting the Greens.
20p Corporation tax = "Britain open for business". 21p Corporation tax = "AAARRGH! FIDEL CASTRO IN THE TREASURY!" 30p in the 1990s...?
I wonder if, by kicking off its campaign with business policies, Labour intended to provoke the inevitable row early. If so, it's working.
Big business is almost as unpopular as the political class. Only option for Labour: make a virtue of being attacked and really go for it.
Naive to think a Labour party led by Blair after the crash wouldn't have been critical of big companies. It'd just have been better at it.
We...see the respectful attentions of the world more strongly directed towards the rich and the great, than towards the wise - Adam Smith
How much weight does the opinion of 100 business leaders carry these days? http://t.co/pgRq0OG1er
In Feb country evenly divided on whether best to stand up to big business or have good relationship with it. http://t.co/sQ0Swvj6lK
8.11pm AEST
This from Sky's Sophy Ridge on the Telegraph anti-Labour business leaders letter.
Understand that Conservative Party Co Chairman Andrew Feldman helped organise today's letter from business leaders in the Telegraph
8.04pm AEST
Here's John Prescott's take on the Telegraph letter.
What that Telegraph front page should have said! pic.twitter.com/0Fxu7auUy0 via @SimonGosden #GE2015
8.03pm AEST
And here are the full details of the Centre for Macroeconomics survey. (See 9.18am.)
Here is the chart the the survey response figures.
Many of the respondents begin by noting that it is far from clear what the counterfactual is and that austerity policies were significantly loosened in the second half of the term.
Nevertheless, the clear majority of our respondents disagree or strongly disagree with the proposition [that the coalition's austerity policies have been good for jobs and growth]. Simon Wren-Lewis (Oxford) even goes so far as to ask whether 'this is a joke' before pointing out that by using numbers from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one can 'derive a lowest estimate' for the cumulative loss in activity of 5% of GDP (or 1,500 per capita) and 'a best guess could be nearer to 10% of GDP.' Ethan Ilzetzki (London School of Economics, LSE) strongly disagrees, noting that 'interest rates were at historical low levels and there was no indication that the debt burden was a drag on growth.' John Van Reenen (LSE) also strongly disagrees, although he says that austerity was correctly relaxed after 2011-12 as the 'nascent recovery stuttered.' He and Tony Yates (Bristol) both mention the zero lower bound on interest rates as an argument for less austerity.
7.56pm AEST
Here's Charlie Whelan, Gordon Brown's former spin doctor, on the Telegraph letter from business leaders.
Outrageous that @BBCr4today leads with Tory paper story that big business is backing the Con's. Since when has that been news?
If 100 leading Trade Unionists wrote to the Daily Mirror supporting Labours economic policy would @BBCr4today lead the news on that story?
Labour should get into a big row with big business and not pretend they are friends.They would then be on the right side of public opinion.
7.51pm AEST
According to Sky's Faisal Islam, the Institute of Directors and the EEF, the manufacturers organisation have joined the CBI (see 8.19am) in attack Labour's plan to curb the use of zero-hours contracts.
So three business organisations: CBI, EEF, IoD have also issued separate statements attacking the Labour move on zero hours contracts
7.43pm AEST
Here are today's YouGov polling figures.
Update: Lab lead at 1 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 31st Mar - Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%; APP-16 http://t.co/x4gwkY2ddt
7.41pm AEST
7.18pm AEST
The Telegraph has a letter from business leaders defending the government. But, as Robert Peston revealed on the Today programme this morning, there are other "experts" with a different view on George Osborne's record.
The Centre for Macroeconomics, which groups leading economists from Cambridge University, LSE, University College London (UCL), the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), polled what it calls its 50 experts on whether the "austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK".
Its result was a decisive no.
7.10pm AEST
George Osborne, the Conservative chancellor, claimed that the Telegraph letter from business leaders was "unprecedented". (See 8.46am.)
An intervention on this scale and with this clarity from Britain's business leaders is unprecedented in any recent general election. Their message is positive: under David Cameron's leadership, we have an economic plan that is working and creating jobs. Today that plan sees corporation tax cut again to 20 per cent, and a new diverted profits tax so those low taxes are paid.
And the warning from Britain's business leaders couldn't be clearer: a change of course will threaten jobs, deter investment, send a negative signal about our country and put the recovery at risk. Britain now knows. No more ifs or buts.
7.06pm AEST
Ed Miliband was on BBC Breakfast this morning. He was mostly talking about his plans to limit the use of zero-hours contracts, but he also mocked David Cameron for using his statement outside Number 10 on Monday to launch a personal attack on him.
David Cameron is the guy - he stood outside Downing Street in the way no prime minister has done in the past ten elections, and he talked about me. Imagine, he has got five years he wants as prime minister, or maybe it's three or four, and he actually talks about me. I don't care about David Cameron throwing mud at me, what I care about is what's going to happen to the British people in the next five years.
7.00pm AEST
Here are the key points from the Today interview with Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader.
You said that [the SNP are] brimming with confidence - I think they're overflowing with arrogance.
The SNP have been ahead in a string of polls; that's partly, I think, because a lot of people, until the election had been called, were thinking about last year's vote and the referendum and the nearer we get to the general election people are going to think [less] about last year's disagreement and more about this year's decision; which is do you want a Labour government or Tory government in power?
If the SNP gains [the number of seats the polls suggest] it diminishes the Labour party, it allows David Cameron to continue to lead the biggest party and get a chance to hold onto power. That's the last thing Scotland can afford - a decade of David Cameron.
If these polls, these opinion polls, are repeated on election day in Scotland of course the SNP and Labour party will work together, we will work very closely together, but it will be on the opposition benches. We will be looking across at David Cameron as Prime Minister because that's the consequence if these polls if they are repeated.
First of all I think most people in Scotland think David Cameron's the type of Prime Minister who when he sees a drowning man shouts at him to just swim harder. We can't have a Prime Minister who just looks the other way when it comes to the country's problems. We have been clear, The SNP have been clear, there is going to be no coalition with the Scottish National Party. What the Scottish Labour party wants is a coalition with the English Labour party and the Welsh Labour party to have a Labour government.
6.46pm AEST
And here is the letter itself.
Dear Sirs,
We run some of the leading businesses in the UK. We believe this Conservative-led government has been good for business and has pursued policies which have supported investment and job creation.
6.35pm AEST
This one almost caught me out.
Ukip officials refuse to comment on late-night Nigel Farage visit to Ed Miliband's home. Lasted 3 hours, say sources
Labour sources dismiss reports Ed Miliband met @Nigel_Farage last night
6.19pm AEST
The CBI has criticised Labour's plans to limit the use of zero-hours contracts. This is from John Cridland, the CBI director general:
The UK's flexible jobs market has given us an employment rate that is the envy of other countries, so proposals to limit flexible contracts to 12 weeks are wide of the mark.
Of course action should be taken to tackle abuses, but demonising flexible contracts is playing with the jobs that many firms and many workers value and need.
Zero hours contracts account for just 1 in 50 jobs in our economy, this government has already banned the abusive ones - and all the while Labour presided over zero-hours contracts with no safeguards for 3 terms and 13 years while they were in power. Tony Blair even promised to ban them entirely as far as back as 1995 and then did nothing.
The fact is that three quarters of the new jobs since this government came to office are full time - these are families across the country getting into work with the security of a regular pay packet.
We welcome this commitment to deal with exploitative zero-hours contracts, which have allowed bad employers to effectively hire and fire staff at will.
Zero-hours workers are often too afraid to speak up for their rights for fear of losing work.
6.11pm AEST
Good morning. I'm taking over from Claire.
5.58pm AEST
With a hat-tip to Buzzfeed's Jim Waterson, who spotted the " I'm going to call it a glitch, the Telegraph website offers readers the opportunity to vote on whether Labour retains the confidence of big business:
5.50pm AEST
Rachel Reeves, the shadow work and pensions secretary, has been on ITV's Good Morning Britain to discuss Labour's announcement today that it put further limits on zero-hours contracts:
Particularly if you have got childcare responsibilities and a family, not knowing from week to week, day to day " whether you're going to afford to pay the rent and bills and put food on the table, that's just not good enough.
The prime minister says he couldn't live on it, well if he couldn't live on it we shouldn't be asking fellow citizens to do so.
5.29pm AEST
Well, we do say we want our politicians to be more "real":
Ooh, the glamour - R4 Today i/v was pre-recorded in a van, in a Premier Inn car park at 6am in my Cookie Monster PJs pic.twitter.com/KvOpPVL10Y
5.27pm AEST
Lord (Stuart) Rose is on the Today programme now. He's one of the signatories to the letter in the Telegraph today. He's also a Tory peer.
"The good news at the moment is we have this flourishing environment" for business, he says, adding: "I don't accept at all" that workers are being exploited by companies over zero-hours contracts.
The creation of wealth is extremely important " to keep our country going.
Good to ask Stuart Rose ex M&S Boss why his govt commissioned report into NHS, finished months ago, is unpublished by govt he suppports
Rose report criticising management of NHS 'put on back burner' - http://t.co/0kbV3JZ5D8 http://t.co/JBolUQJCOD via @FT
5.21pm AEST
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, has just been on the Today programme, talking about the likely outcome of the election in Scotland:
The polls are still showing the influence of last year's referendum, she says:
The SNP have managed to lock in a lot of that 45% [who voted yes last September]" and that is enough to win you an awful lot of seats.
As the primary yes force, they've absolutely been able to harness that " I think there will be SNP gains in Scotland.
We as a party are also looking to build " we are the most pro-union party.
Probably, on balance, would that be my preference? If the numbers work, then it probably would.
5.01pm AEST
Hello, and welcome to the Guardian's election live blog, with - only! - 36 days of campaigning left to go. We are bringing you live coverage every day from 7am till late, kicking off with our all-you-need-to-know morning briefing, designed for those election fans who nonetheless like to get the occasional night's sleep.
There is only one way to end Tory austerity in Scotland and that's by voting Labour.
The team is the team. You don't want to change the person who has driven our economic performance, and has been at the helm of it.
A tax promise, Chelsea FC, and what really happened on Syria. Cameron and Osborne's 1st joint interview in tmrw's Sun pic.twitter.com/Gmw3nisGcR
Wednesday's Telegraph front page: 100 business chiefs: Labour threatens Britain's recovery #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/ZpgEOdZIAo
No one will be surprised that some business people are calling for low taxes for big businesses. That's nothing new.
The letter has been signed by at least five business leaders who previously backed Labour, including Sir Charles Dunstone, the chairman of Dixons Carphone and Talk Talk plc, and Duncan Bannatyne, a former star of Dragons' Den.
Not only is the contest perilously close, it has more story lines than an episode of Downton Abbey.
While parties can lose even when their candidate for prime minister is preferred to his main rival, and they can lose when they are thought stronger on the economy than their opponents, no one has ever lost when ahead on both leadership and the economy. Yet this time, the Conservatives look as if they might.
Surely the big news about this letter: http://t.co/aNLY3sKyPJ is that 100 senior business leaders don't think China is a "major economy"?
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