Supercomputing Model Warns of Next American Dustbowl
upstart writes:
Droughts, flash floods the future for the Midwest ... probably:
A climate model developed by researchers at the Department of Energy's Argonne National Labs, projects prolonged droughts across much of the US which will be followed by brief but devastating floods. But these events won't happen overnight.
Instead, they're forecast to place with increasing frequency over the next 50 years. But even by the middle of the century - just a short 27 years from now - simulations suggest that large portions of the Midwest will be in a state of persistent drought, and the American West isn't looking much better off, despite recent rainstorms that have raised hopes of more lush times ahead.
[...] However, extreme drought isn't the only thing Argonne researchers' models forecast. They also predict brief but intense periods of precipitation - a characteristic of many drought prone areas - leading to extensive flooding.
According to researchers, the American Midwest could bear the brunt of these extreme weather events as the climate continues to shift. While precipitation might sound like a reprieve from drought conditions, the researchers note that as the soil dries out, it becomes hydrophobic, causing it to repel water. They note that similar phenomena have been observed with wildfires in California.
Ultimately, scientists hope that improved models will give policymakers something to think about when approaching climate issues.
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