High US inflation and war are hardly new – so why were leaders caught by surprise? | Michael Boskin

Joe Biden's American Rescue Plan and other economic policies have had predictable results

Watch any sport nowadays, and you will be treated to instant replays that give you a detailed - often slow-motion - view of important moments. Watch the news, and you may find yourself feeling like you are similarly watching the past on playback. But these replays - of high inflation, soaring public debt, a brutal ground war in Europe, a new cold war and the rise of potentially destructive technologies - are far from instant, and the stakes are much higher.

Readers might recall that I predicted rising inflation and slower growth as early as spring 2021. The former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers did so even earlier. Yet the US inflation figures - the worst since the early 1980s - caught most people by surprise.