Economic gloom looks likely to sink the Tories. But Labour is taking no chances | Larry Elliott

Come the general election, the worst of Britain's pain may be over, so Starmer's slow and steady approach is the right one

Mortgage rates this week are at their highest level since the global financial crisis 15 years ago. The International Monetary Fund has warned that borrowing costs may need to go higher - and stay there - if the Bank of England is to bring inflation back on target. Pay packets are going up but prices are going up faster. People are getting poorer, not richer.

Clearly, this is a problem for a government that can only delay the next general election for at most 18 months. But it is also a cause for concern for Labour, which stands to inherit an economic mess and a ton of political problems, if it can end a run of four election defeats.