Why have emerging markets not spiralled into a debt crisis?

Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey have shown economic resilience despite wave of defaults

As finance ministers and central bankers convened in Marrakech for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings on 9-15 October, they faced an extraordinary confluence of economic and geopolitical calamities: wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a wave of defaults among low- and lower-middle-income economies, a real estate-driven slump in China, and a surge in long-term global interest rates - all against the backdrop of a slowing and fracturing world economy.

But what surprised veteran analysts the most was the expected calamity that hasn't happened, at least not yet: an emerging market debt crisis. Despite the significant challenges posed by soaring interest rates and the sharp appreciation of the US dollar, none of the large emerging markets - including Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa and even Turkey - appear to be in debt distress, according to the IMF and interest rate spreads.