May general election? The economic case for going early (and clinging on)

Falling inflation and tax cuts in a February budget would signal a spring poll but weak growth and rising mortgage bills bode caution

Go early or postpone election day in the hope that things will look brighter at some point in the future. It is a dilemma that James Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown and Theresa May all faced. To that list, now add the name of Rishi Sunak who ends 2023 with a tricky call to make.

The Labour party has been on election footing for months, suspecting that the prime minister might call a snap election in the spring. But it was Jeremy Hunt's announcement in the autumn statement that he was cutting employee national insurance (NI) contributions that really alerted Westminster to the possibility of a May poll.