Things can only get better? For Sunak and the UK economy, this might be as good as it gets

Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait

• UK general election - latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July
• Why is Sunak calling an election now?

When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble. The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets.

Sunak has only come to this view recently. After sliding into a shallow recession at the end of 2023, the economy has only just returned to growth. Living standards - which took a hammering during the cost of living crisis - have been picking up. Inflation has fallen from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3%, only just above its target.