Sunak dashed for July election because hopes of UK economic recovery are fading

Prime minister knows economy is likely to be in even worse shape by autumn or winter, but summer's good news won't impress a battered public

There was an economic logic to Rishi Sunak's election dash, a decision that defied earlier predictions of a vote in the autumn or even winter. The prime minister could see that hopes of a recovery were fading, and with them his chances of redemption as the architect of Britain's future prosperity.

Unemployment was going to continue rising. Inflation, after falling steadily over the past year, could bounce back in the autumn. And interest rates, which are a burden for mortgage payers and indebted businesses alike, looked like remaining stubbornly high.