Arctic's Cooling Power Has Plummeted by 25%, Alarming Study Reveals

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New research led by scientists at the University of Michigan reveals that the Arctic has lost approximately 25% of its cooling ability since 1980 due to diminishing sea ice and reduced reflectivity. Additionally, this phenomenon has contributed to a global loss of up to 15% in cooling power.

Using satellite measurements of cloud cover and the solar radiation reflected by sea ice between 1980 and 2023, the researchers found that the percent decrease in sea ice's cooling power is about twice as high as the percent decrease in annual average sea ice area in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The added warming impact from this change to sea ice cooling power is toward the higher end of climate model estimates.

When we use climate simulations to quantify how melting sea ice affects climate, we typically simulate a full century before we have an answer," said Mark Flanner, professor of climate and space sciences and engineering and the corresponding author of the study published in Geophysical Research Letters.

We're now reaching the point where we have a long enough record of satellite data to estimate the sea ice climate feedback with measurements."

[...] The Arctic has seen the largest and most steady declines in sea ice cooling power since 1980, but until recently, the South Pole had appeared more resilient to the changing climate. Its sea ice cover had remained relatively stable from 2007 into the 2010s, and the cooling power of the Antarctic's sea ice was actually trending up at that time.

That view abruptly changed in 2016, when an area larger than Texas melted on one of the continent's largest ice shelves. The Antarctic lost sea ice then too, and its cooling power hasn't recovered, according to the new study. As a result, 2016 and the following seven years have had the weakest global sea ice cooling effect since the early 1980s.

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