Tree Species Face Unprecedented Climate Shifts Across Their Ranges

upstart writes:

Tree species face unprecedented climate shifts across their ranges:

Trees may seem like quiet bystanders, but they're vital to the health of ecosystems, the stability of our climate, and even our own survival. As the planet heats up, these ancient organisms are being pushed to their limits - and the impacts reach far beyond the forest.

A new study has shed light on the future of trees under climate change. The research team modeled how more than 32,000 tree species might respond to changing temperatures.

The findings are stark. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, most trees on Earth could find themselves living in climates they have never known.

The study reveals a major upheaval for the world's trees. According to study lead author Dr. Coline Boonman from Wageningen University, the team found that nearly 70% of tree species will see significant climate shifts in at least part of their range by the end of this century.

"For some species, over half of their habitat could be affected under an extreme 4C warming scenario," said Dr. Boonman.

This means trees in these regions will face temperatures, rainfall, and seasonal patterns outside their historical experience. For organisms adapted to specific conditions, these shifts may prove overwhelming. Some species may fail to reproduce.

Others may suffer from drought, disease, or increased competition. Trees cannot quickly move. They grow slowly, with some species taking decades to mature. As the climate shifts fast, many may be left behind.

The study does not just warn of future risks. It shows where those risks are most concentrated. The researchers mapped "exposure hotspots" - regions where tree diversity is most likely to face serious disruption.

These include large parts of Eurasia, northwestern North America, northern Chile, and the Amazon Delta. In these areas, the changes in climate could be so extreme that native species may not survive without human intervention.

"This research provides a global map of where trees are most vulnerable to climate change," explained Dr. Boonman. "It's a crucial tool for conservation planning and ecosystem resilience."

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