State pension on course for inflation-busting 4.7% rise under triple lock; JLR production shutdown extended again – as it happened

Pensioners will be rejoicing at the prospect of an inflation-busting rise to the state pension from April next year," says analyst

There is some relief in the UK's cost of living squeeze this morning - grocery price inflation has slowed.

British grocery inflation fell to 4.9% over the four weeks to 7 September, data from Worldpanel by Numerator shows. That's down from 5% the previous month, but means grocery prices are still rising a little faster than wages.

Supermarkets' own lines now make up 51.2% of all sales, up from 50.9% a year ago.

Sales of these products grew by 5.9% this period, just ahead of brands at 5.3%, but it's the premium own label goods which are the real standout performers.

State pensioners look on course to get an 4.7% uplift in their state pension next year as average wage growth remained robust. Such an increase would see a full new state pension rise from its current level of 230.25 per week to 241.05 per week from April. Those retiring on the basic state pension would see their weekly income increase from 176.45 per week to 184.75.

However, the hike is not yet set in stone. We are awaiting the final piece of the triple lock puzzle - September's inflation data to be published next month and if this surpasses 4.7% then we could see an even bigger increase. However, given that inflation currently sits at 3.8% it seems likely that wage growth will be the key figure here.

Those on the new state pension will receive the uplift but those on the basic state pension will only receive it on their main state pension. Any further top ups such as the state second pension are usually uprated in line with inflation instead, so they won't get the full benefit of the triple lock on their entire payment.

Pensioners will be rejoicing at the prospect of an inflation-busting rise to the state pension from April next year as a result of the triple lock guarantee, with the latest ONS earnings growth figure coming in at 4.7% for the period between May and July of this year.

Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension will rise by the highest of average earnings growth in May to July, September's inflation figure or 2.5%. Provided inflation doesn't spike above 4.7% in September, all stars point to these latest earnings figures boosting the new state pension to 12,534.60 from April 2026 - putting it above 12,000 for the first time ever and perilously close to the frozen personal allowance.