Baseload Power is Functionally Extinct

upstart writes:

Baseload power is functionally extinct:

Much has been made of the notion that "renewables can't supply baseload power". This line suggests we need to replace Australia's ageing coal fleet with new coal or nuclear. The fact of the matter is that, already, "baseload" is an outdated concept and baseload generators face extinction.

Traditional utility grid management suggests there are three types of load: baseload, shoulder, and peak. Baseload is underlying 24/7 energy demand. Peak load is regular, but short-lived periods of high demand and shoulder loads are what lie in between. Under this model, system planning is straightforward - assign different types of energy generation to the different loads according to the price and qualitative characteristics.

Traditional, simple dispatch of generation technologies according to cost and flexibility

Historically in Australia, coal supplies most baseload demand since it is relatively cheap and very slow to ramp its output up or down. In some countries, baseload is met with nuclear since it is even less flexible than coal, but only two countries generate more than 50% of their energy from nuclear.

With the roles of different generators clearly delineated, power planners' jobs are much easier in this idealised system than today's grid.

In a system with lots of solar, prices fall dramatically at around midday because solar has no fuel cost. Because much of Australian solar is on rooftops, grid demand also falls. For those hours, baseload generators must either operate at a loss or shut down. Continuing to generate produces more energy than the grid requires at very low or negative prices. This is not a conscious choice-it is the structure of the market that the cheapest bid gets dispatched first.

In practice, most baseload generators are simply not capable of ramping up and down fast enough - they must bear loss-making prices in the middle of the day and try to make it up with high prices at peak periods. Moreover, this daily up/down ramp (called "load-following") brings efficiency losses and extra maintenance costs.

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