Was That Scuba Burglary a Successful Aquatic Escape?
It's probably safe to say that no news story in recent memory has generated as much reader email as this one, about a September 15 robbery in Florida where the perpetrator reportedly both arrived and departed underwater. Look! virtually everyone said, here's an example of an attempted aquatic escape that actually worked, unlike, for example, all others in history. Well, it is true that so far as I can tell, as of today (Oct. 24) the suspect still has not been apprehended. But is this truly an example of a successful aquatic escape? Let us consider.
Here are the facts. The robbery took place late at night at the Paddlefish restaurant, which is housed within a steamboat replica" on Lake Buena Vista at Walt Disney World in Florida. (It doesn't float, it just looks like a steamboat.) The man approached the restaurant by swimming up in scuba gear," reports said, which he stored elsewhere before walking into the manager's office" wearing a black wetsuit, rubber gloves, a balaclava, reflective goggles, and socks. The two employees present at the time said the man came in, pushed them, and made them get on their knees. He didn't brandish a weapon or claim he had one, so this was a strong-arm" robbery. He took between $10,000 and $20,000, after which, the report says, he put his scuba gear back on and jumped back into the lake." Deputies responded but were unable to find the man.
Media outlets updated the story this month, after audio from the employees' 911 call was released. The only additional detail that provides, however, really just confirms that this robbery was carefully planned and based on some inside knowledge. He came around the corner and saw us and rushed in," the employee said. It was like he knew where [the cash room] was." So if you were thinking this was just a robbery of opportunity, like he just happened to be out diving at night and decided to rob a restaurant, we can probably cross that off the list of scenarios.
So what do we make of this?
First, of course, only with hindsight can one really know whether an escape attempt has been truly successful" in a long-term sense. As I'm sure you all remember, the guys who stole the Swedish crown jewels and fled in a speedboat also got away" at first. Speedboat Escape Is Exception That Proves the Rule" (Aug. 3, 2018). But did that last? Nope. See Stolen Swedish Crown Jewels Turn Up During Suspect's Trial" (Feb. 7, 2019). So just because a crook hasn't been found yet doesn't necessarily mean he successfully escaped." The longer it's been, the more likely that is, but we're not in D.B. Cooper territory yet here. It's only been six weeks.
Second, I don't think an escape could be called successful" if the escapee died during it, which may have been the case with D.B. Cooper. He got away," but if his chute didn't open, I wouldn't call that a success. We just don't know.
So is there any reason to believe Scuba Man is not just missing but dead? Yes: alligators.
Alligators?" you ask, laughing nervously. Didn't you say this happened in a lake at Walt Disney World? I didn't see any while we were there! Ha! Ha!" Maybe not, but one might have seen you. See Mike DeForest, 226 alligators removed from Disney World since death 5 years ago," ClickOrlando.com (June 14, 2021). I hasten to add: (1) that death was a horribly tragic case of which I am in no way making light; (2) to my knowledge that is the only alligator attack at Disney World; (3) since then Disney has put up fences and taken other measures to make this even less likely; (4) it's Florida, so it's probably impossible to keep anything larger than a toilet free of alligators; and yet still (5) 226 is a significantly greater number of alligators than I, at least, would have expected to have found at Disney World during any given five-year period.
Nor was that a fluke of some kind. According to the report, during the eight years before the attack, state-contracted wildlife trappers removed an average of 23 alligators from Disney property" per year, they found and removed 83 during the year it happened, and during the next four years the annual numbers were between 33 and 57. And those are the ones they found.
So it seems safe to say there is a non-zero chance that the missing robber has in fact been located-just not by the authorities.
But I suppose the odds of that are low. More likely, he made it to shore somewhere nearby and then switched to a more conventional mode of travel. But I still think we can't yet conclude this was successful." The investigation is ongoing, and if Scuba Guy knew where the cash room was, he must have had some source of inside knowledge, so the suspect list is probably finite.
And even if this does turn out to be a success, like the Swedish Crown Jewels case I still think it's an exception that proves the rule: without very careful planning, good luck, aquatic escape attempts are almost certain to fail, and probably very quickly. There is no shortage of evidence here to support that conclusion.
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